BombsAway1288 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Somewhat worried about exhaust here. Short-range models seem to not have the EXACT placement of the heaviest snows just yet. Some are in SE Mass, some are in the 495 belt-ORH (shocking, I know lol). Anybody have a good/decent idea of where the subsidence screw zone will be? I guess it just depends where the best banding sets-up and if you're one of the lucky ones just outside of it. Or is this just moving too fast that we wouldn't really have to worry about that like we would if it was a slow mover with banding that pivots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: I'm not so sure about that but we'll see I think y'all are being too much of qpf queens. You're gonna get into some good banding for a time. The best will be east of you most likely but early on you will be in on the goods. They just move out quicker in the western areas. I'd be surprised if you didn't get 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys are high. You'll easily see more than 4". Don’t you see what he’s doing? Pulling a Tblizz fake meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: Somewhat worried about exhaust here. Short-range models seem to not have the EXACT placement of the heaviest snows just yet. Some are in SE Mass, some are in the 495 belt-ORH (shocking, I know lol). Anybody have a good/decent idea of where the subsidence screw zone will be? I guess it just depends where the best banding sets-up and if you're one of the lucky ones just outside of it. Or is this just moving too fast that we wouldn't really have to worry about that like we would if it was a slow mover with banding that pivots? Yeah don't worry. It's very progressive so it's not like you are gonna be in an exhaust zone for hours. There will be a few spots that maximize their time in the best bands which is where the jacks will be but just about everyone in SNE will get in on the bands at least for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: so close but just not close enough....maybe we will get lucky all the boo hooing all winter and the same areas that have been crushed beyond crushed a hundred times over in the past 20 years will do so again tonight I think Kevin may actually be in the best spot You should do a little better than 4" but as maddening as it might be you could be a 30 minute drive to twice that amount. Just how it goes. I'm definitely going to get fringed by the heavier rates but this has never been a NW MA storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You should do a little better than 4" but as maddening as it might be you could be a 30 minute drive to twice that amount. Just how it goes. I'm definitely going to get fringed by the heavier rates but this has never been a NW MA storm. yesterday kinda was a bummer too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Current radar, overnight models, morning models, mesoanalysis..certainly feeling much better about this. Will...what is the biggest reason here for a more northwest track (or a track entirely different) from the other night? Is it solely shortwave related or are there other factors (like better 850 inflow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah don't worry. It's very progressive so it's not like you are gonna be in an exhaust zone for hours. There will be a few spots that maximize their time in the best bands which is where the jacks will be but just about everyone in SNE will get in on the bands at least for a time. I had a feeling it would be like that but just wanted to confirm with someone more knowledgeable. I'll take it from the king of the ORH banding Thanks Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This thing is going to be a QPF blob moving in. I don't really see the potential for screw zones unless you are mixing. Maybe the dryslot races in and somebody well NW gets another hr or two of light to moderate snow..but it's not like someone will get 10-12" and someone else all snow will get 4-6. Unless you are way outside the area of main forcing of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjayiloveyouitstony Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It’s going to snow. It’s me weatherfeen I’m leaving and not coming back because @bxengine band for nothing. I hate that. Whatever happened to freedom of speech. Well good luck I’m going to another board. New England sucks by the way New York City rules 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjayiloveyouitstony said: It’s going to snow. It’s me weatherfeen I’m leaving and not coming back because @bxengine band for nothing. I hate that. Whatever happened to freedom of speech. Well good luck I’m going to another board. New England sucks by the way New York City rules Always so much drama down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 What the heck was that all about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Current radar, overnight models, morning models, mesoanalysis..certainly feeling much better about this. Will...what is the biggest reason here for a more northwest track (or a track entirely different) from the other night? Is it solely shortwave related or are there other factors (like better 850 inflow). The longwave trough is more amplified. This is a vortmax riding up the east side of a pretty good trough centered over the lakes. Yesterday's storm was also trying to ride up the east side of the same trough, but it hadn't yet dug as deep as it is now and we had the kicker shortwave in the dakotas and upper Midwest to sort of nudge it east....plus the energy was extremely diffuse. Today's is more concentrated albeit still not excessively sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Rjayiloveyouitstony said: It’s going to snow. It’s me weatherfeen I’m leaving and not coming back because @bxengine band for nothing. I hate that. Whatever happened to freedom of speech. Well good luck I’m going to another board. New England sucks by the way New York City rules Glad we don't live and post there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Greg said: What the heck was that all about? fallout from the NYC thread...it is a war zone down there b4 snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The longwave trough is more amplified. This is a vortmax riding up the east side of a pretty good trough centered over the lakes. Yesterday's storm was also trying to ride up the east side of the same trough, but it hadn't yet dug as deep as it is now and we had the kicker shortwave in the dakotas and upper Midwest to sort of nudge it east....plus the energy was extremely diffuse. Today's is more concentrated albeit still not excessively sharp. Thanks Will! This entirely explains why I screwed up heavily the last two storms. I was interpreting the influences the longwave trough would have on each system...my interpretations were backwards. I know exactly what you're referring to with that kicker s/w...I again misinterpreted that. My interpretations were the look with these features Friday would tug them west and the look for tonight would push east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: fallout from the NYC thread...it is a war zone down there b4 snowstorms I guess they have had a worse time of winter down there than us here, damn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Why has no one posted the GFS Snow Map output at 12z in here?? And NYC Is the most retchid, disgusting, toilet bowl s**thole place on Earth with the meanest people I’ve ever met; and remember I’ve traveled everywhere. Not to mention he’s comparing a Region with a City 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, TheSnowman said: Why has no one posted the GFS Snow Map output at 12z in here?? And NYC Is the most retchid, disgusting, toilet bowl s**thole place on Earth with the meanest people I’ve ever met; and remember I’ve traveled everywhere. Not to mention he’s comparing a Region with a City Woah chill, you’re right about mean people but I disagree with everything else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 lol, GFS went from having the least qpf the last couple days to now the most for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Don't feed the trolls from the NYC thread. Let them stay there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Bob Kraft's fetish is sleazy massage parlors...Jerry's fetish is RPM runs right before a good snow event. Still ramping up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yeah that went wild lol. It’s got like 1-1.5” QPF south of pike. That may be overdoing it for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Feet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that went wild lol. It’s got like 1-1.5” QPF south of pike. That may be overdoing it for QPF. It looked like the Ukie had similar amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It looked like the Ukie had similar amounts. With it moving fast, I feel like those values are probably a bit too much. We see that a lot. 1” doable but 1.5” all snow with an open wave is one of the ten weenie commandments. Thou shall not forecast that high. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Bob Kraft's fetish is sleazy massage parlors...Jerry's fetish is RPM runs right before a good snow event. Still ramping up... Ooh! Thanks Will! And I won’t get arrested! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 As I stated yesterday, I always thought earlier yesterday that this could potentially be an 8-12" in the making. Not sure if the quick movement allows that but look at the 6-9" we got on November 12. so for this particular storm, this is very achievable plus it isn't going over to rain this time outside the far South shore, South Coast, Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With it moving fast, I feel like those values are probably a bit too much. We see that a lot. 1” doable but 1.5” all snow with an open wave is one of the ten weenie commandments. Mesos are def going wild. Good sign though because even if we take off 20-25% then it's still a solid 7-10. The rates are going to matter a ton in this one given it's a fast mover. Like if someone is putting up 3"/hr for a couple hours that is going to juice the totals big time. Some of the guidance has an awesome crosshair sig over the interior (mostly the non-NAM guidance)...so gotta be leery of the fluff bomb for someone. The poster child for that is obviously something like 2/7/03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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