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WEATHERMINATOR

March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

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27 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Which model do you "believe" for your one-stop solution? Just curious as here I've been looking at multiple pieces of guidance to suss out the range of possibilities.

It’s track is good but the pecip amts are too sparse... this will be a 4-8” with locally up to 10 across the area. Starting mid afternoon and ending around 2-3 am

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3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

looks to me the 12z GFS shows a start time evening on Sunday ending midday on Monday.

End time will be before then, I'd say it's over by dawn or soon after Monday. It'll be an 8-10 hour event for the most part. 

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6 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said:

And it looks like most of the snow is going to fall after dark so sun angle will not be a factor.

If we get this then probably one more would put  us near average 

 

 

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NWS as of 11 am were buying in and UPPED my #'s

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, most of southern
  Connecticut and portions of southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

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2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

The GFS just gets drier with every run... almost a shutout up here now.

hdNRZT1.png

I'm in Hyde Park and GFS is not our friend up here. NWS Albany has me getting 5-9 but I'm thinking 4-6. What do you think ratios will be up here? 

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7 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

A little too technical for me but always welcome to see you here. I'm in the green near SI; not sure what to expect, was surprised by today's event. If we can get one, we can get two. march 1992 comes to mind.

Never a straightforward event, but I think the probs are too far nw and will probably slip closer to I95 in the afternoon update...  New accentuated frontal zone aloft lift is near NYC-BOS... so it should be there or just nw of there that a stripe of greater 10-1 snow fall occurs, whatever the eventual qpf. always model fluctuations but as a private sector met noticed...faster and further s trends, which means less qpf-snow, but still this will be nice event, and I think a little larger than the one of this morning. I dont know how many recall...  the GFS had this mornings event as RAIN, and big low up in the St Lawrence Valley. EC and other models recognized early on a better chance south.  But I hope the EC fans, dont get to enamored...it busted badly days in advance of the Wednesday event down I90 (2-6" stripe BUF to BOS), the one that the GFS had well ahead of the EC, just too far s. 

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 12.52.38 PM.pngAdded the 18z NAM banding potential for 06z/4. Consistent and pretty large with its 12z/2 run. 

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 4.56.54 PM.png

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Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC.

Right now it's a warm outlier

NYC gets 4-8 on this run

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC.

Right now it's a warm outlier

NYC gets 4-8 on this run

It’s too far west and amped. The Euro has been horrible for this event. IMO It’s going to move SE again tonight. The cave isn’t over. The GFS is winning this battle 

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

It’s too far west and amped. The Euro has been horrible for this event. IMO It’s going to move SE again tonight. The cave isn’t over. The GFS is winning this battle 

The GFS moved NW at 12z. It's too early to count out a late west trend. On the coast at least I'd be more worried about mixing cutting into totals than it being too suppressed. I don't think you need to worry about suppression until you're NW of I-84. 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC.

Right now it's a warm outlier

NYC gets 4-8 on this run

BIG time raise back clos"er" to where it was ides cycles... OP 1" qpf stripe nr PHL-ISP and 7+ nw NJ.  As snow88 said, warm outlier but banding is a consideration.  I'd watch NAM trends through the 12z cycle tomorrow. IF the NAM comes on a little heavier,  many on here will like.  There is a pretty strong front aloft associated with this event coming thru tomorrow night.   Jury out, but worthy of recognizing travel tomorrow evening in NNJ/CT hilltowns could be quite bad IF/when? 1-2"/hr snowfall rates develop for a 2 hr period.  Fingers crossed.  

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro bumped northwest bringing the heaviest snow to areas just to the north and west of NYC.

Right now it's a warm outlier

NYC gets 4-8 on this run

West of S S I?

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6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Looks like it doesn't change to rain in NYC, but maybe you've looked at thermals.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030212/new-jersey/significant-weather/20190304-0800z.html

It changes JFK but not necessarily LGA or NYC....Without hour by hour panels its tough to say what happens but the Euro seems to go snow-rain-snow at JFK which just never happens....in a storm like this its either going to stay all snow or go snow-rain

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24 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'm in Hyde Park and GFS is not our friend up here. NWS Albany has me getting 5-9 but I'm thinking 4-6. What do you think ratios will be up here? 

As long as the synoptics are still being hashed out, I don't see any compelling reason to deviate far from climo ratios.

The Euro continues to be the wettest in the interior, but the gradient will be sharp either way. In the end, it wouldn't surprise me if you got 3" while somebody in Pawling called in 8.

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TWC forecast for city is rain/mix and less than an inch. Uh ... what model shows this?

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WPC model diagnostic discussion regarding this event. Just for an idea of what they're looking at. From 130pm :

Preference: General model blend (with less weight toward the 12z ECMWF)

Confidence: Average

The 12z NAM has shifted to the east with its surface low track (when compared to its previous two model cycles), a result of better agreement concerning the timing of the phasing of the northern and southern stream short wave into a broad cyclonic flow over the northern part of the US. The 12z GFS has remained consistent with its previous two model cycles in keeping the surface low further east. Though it has been trending slowly eastward with its depiction of the surface low track, the 12z ECMWF remains the westernmost member of the guidance envelope (joined with the 00z ECMWF ensemble mean). The general model trend has been to phase the northern and southern stream a bit later, resulting on a more easterly surface low track. Given this trend, a general model blend is preferred, though at this point less weight should be given the 12z ECMWF because of its surface low track (and precipitation swath). Because there is still some variability concerning when the phasing occurs, and considering the sensitivity of the forecast to that variability, confidence remains average.

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

No WSW in the city, yet a 3-7 inch point and click forecast....Guidance easily warrants a watch. Maybe they're waiting for the 18z suite...

The fact the ECMWF is being somewhat weighed less they might do it...given this event does not start though til evening tomorrow they may just hold off til 4am and go straight to warning or advisory

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

No WSW in the city, yet a 3-7 inch point and click forecast....Guidance easily warrants a watch. Maybe they're waiting for the 18z suite...

in there earlier AFD they mentioned they might issue a watch for NYC if the guidance indicates the need - I think at the least they will issue and advisory and then tomorrow morning possibly a watch if guidance indicates the need....

"NEW YORK CITY, LONG  
ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES  
WERE LEFT OUT, WITH SNOW TOTALS MARGINAL. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON  
WHERE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW OCCUR THESE REGIONS MAY ALSO REACH  
WARNING CRITERIA AND THE WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED LATER.

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