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WxUSAF

March 3-4, 2019 Snow Discussion and Obs

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

I’m starting to think you live at a liquor store!

Nope. Just a beer store! Lol. Helps working for a several breweries.  :thumbsup:

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2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Pullin for everyone to get several inches of snow and sleet! As soon as it falls, PILE IT UP!

Pile it up where the sun can’t touch it for months or even years. Like your freezer. :lol:

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10 minutes ago, T. August said:

Did you really draw all of that. Good lord.

Yeah, just took about one minute lol. 

Go ahead and pick on me guys, I'm out of here for the night. It's movie night with the wife :bike:

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17 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Yeah, just took about one minute lol. 

Go ahead and pick on me guys, I'm out of here for the night. It's movie night with the wife :bike:

Wait, you're actually a grown man?

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Just now, yoda said:

No go for the NAM tonight... rain for all as SLP crosses through our region 

Starts as snow on the order of a 1-3/2-4” deal for the northern tier mappy/psu land. Looked better early on, then jumped the low way northeast. Liked where it was the frame before over North central NC 

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Here's the NAMS epiclly marginal sounding for Frederick tomorrow night.  Most of the lift is above the warm layer, so we'd have fatties launching an air strike on the warm layer and no sun to reinforce it.  Probably switching back and forth on precip types.

cl5yMi3.png

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Thinking this will be the icon run that brings us back to reality for Sunday. Looks a bit warmer at 48 and the coastal for tomorrow night weaker in strength. 

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@yoda check out the 0z ICON.  See the Vort over the lakes at 36? It’s not going to phase into the Saturday storm and as a result I’d expect the Sunday one to come north from 18z

D7F01B02-05C3-43B1-AD66-0BAB197EE2F3.gif

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Definitely agree with this post, looks north to me through 60. Yet to see where the R/S line sets up. 

Icon is  further south and quite a bit weaker along the gulf coast at 60hrs.

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Just now, Amped said:

Icon is  further south and quite a bit weaker along the gulf coast at 60hrs.

I should be more specific, it’s warmer at the surface and the R/S is a bit north thru 60. LP isn’t as amped so could be a wash. 

Deleted the other post to remove confusion. H5 is less amped, agreed. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON still a hit

everytime DDweatherman says its going to go more north...it goes more south

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Just now, stormtracker said:

ICON still a hit

Sure is. I was actually attributing the lack of phasing as the possible cause for the other models running this further north than the ICON. However, the overall look at h5 is just flatter and de-amped vs the last few runs, so if that is the reason, it’s washed out by the weaker s/w.

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Just now, Ji said:

everytime DDweatherman says its going to go more north...it goes more south

Yeah, I'm not sure what he was looking at.  I stayed quiet because I know better....unless I see a distinct trend, I'm not saying a thing.  But hey, we all have bad reads sometimes.

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Just now, Ji said:

everytime DDweatherman says its going to go more north...it goes more south

Obvious at the surface it was headed south, if you didn’t have access to that you’d think it would push the low a bit north. Certainly not complaining about it though. 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'm not sure what he was looking at.  I stayed quiet because I know better....unless I see a distinct trend, I'm not saying a thing.  But hey, we all have bad reads sometimes.

You can at least see the UL maps and figure out where that read could come from. But with a weaker low it just didn’t matter. 

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