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Minnesota_storms

February 23-25th Winter Storm

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Add in a potential severe threat in the lower OV with this system as well. Some of these runs, particularly on the euro and the ukie, are looking pretty potent. System looks to have an expansive warm sector with the 00z euro taking the 850mb 10c isotherm all the way to the MI/IN state line. Impressive.

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1 hour ago, Jonbo said:

I almost never see purples for snow fall rates (excuse the screenshot, on phone). 

Screenshot_20190218-055106_Samsung Internet.jpg

Yay, cold rain! We'll have to see what the back side does for southern 1/3 WI, E. IA, N. IL.

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yay, cold rain! We'll have to see what the back side does for southern 1/3 WI, E. IA, N. IL.

Backside??? No no no... I am now activating the Chicago snow magnet. This is the big one of the season

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Well with this winter seems the Day 5-6 bulls eye is not where you want to be if you want big snows, so definitely worth keeping an eye on.

*12Z GFS buries parts of C./S. WI on the 24th with a very sharp cutoff for the far southern tier of counties. Has Madison getting double digits (and Janesville almost nothing), so per the first line of this post that won't happen.

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Can envision the models over-amping this storm out in this time frame.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the storm a little weaker/further southeast as time goes on.  :snowing:

GFS V3 is pushing the big snows further north on the 12z. I would expect the storm to trend weaker - but not sure about the S/E call.

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Honestly, I don't care what happens as long as the snowstorm doesn't  just disappear from one run to the next. Just give us a high-end forecastable event to play around with for a few days

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No matter where it tracks, it seems like this is going to be a big one somewhere. The GFS seems to be on the west end of guidance, and the Canadian on the east. Should be an interesting one to track, but I wouldn't get invested until we're much closer. 

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Can envision the models over-amping this storm out in this time frame.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the storm a little weaker/further southeast as time goes on.  :snowing:

This is for North Dakota and central Minnesota. Not for Cyclone.

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12 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This is for North Dakota and central Minnesota. Not for Cyclone.

I wish it would come to the greater chicago metro. Oh well, we've had are cake so to speak. 

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5 minutes ago, Maneee said:

I wish it would come to the greater chicago metro. Oh well, we've had are cake so to speak. 

Those to our northwest have had much much much more cake. This needs to hit northern/central Indiana to spread the wealth. Hoosier is getting antsy.

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GFS runs have been all over the place this winter. I won't trust the models until Friday. Euro has us getting the biggest storm of the season with 32-40 inches of total snow depth by a week from now, which is about double the 18" we are at now. This about sums it up this winter, if they are even right 1-2 days out. :p

 

 

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Actually considering doing a chase for this storm. If it comes a wee bit further east-- it'll be worth my while. 

 

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18 hours ago, hlcater said:

Add in a potential severe threat in the lower OV with this system as well. Some of these runs, particularly on the euro and the ukie, are looking pretty potent. System looks to have an expansive warm sector with the 00z euro taking the 850mb 10c isotherm all the way to the MI/IN state line. Impressive.

Yeah, we'll see as the week progresses.  The clown maps make me jealous lol,  but if the current winter pattern continues could be a late winter/early spring outbreak for the sub this year.  We're due.

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Pretty Rare for APX to be hyping up the weekend storm so soon, especially being 5 days out with such detial, going to be an interesting next couple weeks with the pattern and storm tracks. 

 

Quote
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

...Another storm this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Potentially very high.

Extended models continue to be on board that there will be another
deepening area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes this
weekend. In addition, extended models have trended farther northwest
and much stronger. The ECMWF and Canadian have the low bombing out
to as low as about 975 mb...all the while 1035 to 1040 mb high
pressure sits across south central Canada! This would result in a
tremendous pressure gradient across the region, especially Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night which could generate very gusty winds.
Lighter rain (possibly freezing) or snow Saturday into Saturday
night is expected to be followed by mainly rain Sunday morning.
Colder air (and increasingly gusty winds) then dives in behind the
departing system likely changing rain over to snow Sunday afternoon
(maybe even leading to a flash freeze). Am growing increasingly
concerned that very gusty winds will result in very low visibilities
from widespread blowing and drifting snow later Sunday into Sunday
night (possibly even blizzard conditions). Lake effect snow showers
likely to follow for early next week. Another low pressure system
could impact the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.
I am amazed at how active the weather has been over the last month
and it looks like it will continue for a while longer!

 

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Parameters are starting to align for sv wx for central and sw IN and se IL for Saturday afternoon and evening per 00z GFS.  IND already telling spotters to keep abreast of the possibility for svr storms as we progress through this week and additional data become available.  Might be wise to start a thread for the svr aspects of this system if trends continue.

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00z UK has gone south of other models, tracks the heavy precip(snow) band through southern and eastern Iowa and into southern Wisconsin.  It's probably temporary before it goes back to northern Iowa.

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The wind potential looks fairly decent with this, assuming it deepens as progged with much of the deepening occurring from the Plains to the Lakes.

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I would watch the southern part of the region for severe too, that might even be thread worthy, Paducah was already talking up the potential down there.

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Nice bump southeast on the Euro.  Heavy snows threaten the northwest portion of the DVN cwa on that run.  Just need another bump or two southeast please.  :tomato:
Wouldn't be too surprised if it bumped more southeast, seems like a majority of the decent surface lows this winter have ended up southeast of the medium range operational model consensus.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Rapid deepening and being so negatively tilted usually means a more Northern track.....don't get too excited about the moves SE this far out.

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12 minutes ago, Baum said:

that's a myth. Plenty more parameters go into a storms track than the idea that raped deepening pulls it northwest. That said, the pattern for the middle west the past 30 days is for them to cut hard once east of the big river. See nothing to change that....

Well then its a "myth" supported by CIPS analogs. There are a lot of parameters that go into everything - but there is nothing about "the big river" that would cause them to cut hard....unless there is someone telling them to hang a hard right at the big river...I suppose that could be happening? :).

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46 minutes ago, Baum said:

that's a myth. Plenty more parameters go into a storms track than the idea that raped deepening pulls it northwest. That said, the pattern for the middle west the past 30 days is for them to cut hard once east of the big river. See nothing to change that....

MPX AFD:

Quote

here are several things to watch with this one. First, the track
is still uncertain and models continue shifting around with each
run. The overnight runs have shifted a tad further south,
including the EPS mean. GEFS remains a bullish northern solution,
impacting southwest to east central MN and northern WI hardest.
Deterministic track guidance is pretty consistent taking the low
across northern MO into southeastern WI. Usually this is a bit
south of the ideal track for heavy snow locally and the forecast
overnight has trended in that direction. It should be noted that
highly negatively- tilted systems and strong cyclones tend to
migrate northward as time closes in.
Second, the amount of
moisture with this system will be quite high and moisture
advection is expected to be impressive given the wind field.
Therefore, we may have to contend with mixed precip or rain across
portions of the area depending how far north the system tracks.

 

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