Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February 23-25th Winter Storm


MNstorms
 Share

Recommended Posts

24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

When was the last time a storm didn't track over us? Hoping this is the last(if it in fact does), and we get some that are a bit more suppressed to give us a few late season snow events before spring is sprung.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winter Storm Watches for west and central lower Michigan. 

Was surprised by the issuance of the watch itself, but then especially by the condition of  "Up to 3"" of snow, which would usually warrant a winter weather advisory if any headline at all. The very strong winds/near whiteout conditions are probably the deciding factors here.   
 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...High winds are forecasted to combine with occasional snow
  and falling temperatures to potentially lead to widespread
  impacts for the area. Westerly winds could gust over 60 mph.
  Blowing snow could potentially lead to near whiteout conditions.
  Accumulations of up to 3 inches are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
  central Michigan.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An increased risk for tree damage and
  widespread power outages exists with this storm. Plan on
  difficult travel due to poor visibilities...slick roads and high
  winds.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

A trend hopefully

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

When was the last time a storm didn't track over us? Hoping this is the last(if it in fact does), and we get some that are a bit more suppressed to give us a few late season snow events before spring is sprung.
I have my eye on Tuesday-Tuesday night for fronto snow. GFS has been consistently more north, favoring WI, but 12z GEM was nice for northern IL.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Maneee said:

I'd post pictures but I'm on my phone. This really is starting to look like a big ice maker for a large portion of WI. Windy as well-- this may be really bad for quite of a lot of you north of chicago-- unless it ticks south some more. 

Uhh i'm good with having no ice thank you very much. Edit: Also Woo! Over 200 posts!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Storm is looking less and less appealing. SLR's as low as 8:1 with the possibility of mixing even being mentioned.  I'd prefer a fluffier 15-18:1 type snow.  After clearing and shoveling 75+ inches in three weeks, I'm pooped. 

I am, however, looking forward to the possible blizzard conditions following.  New generator just waiting :D

Guess I need to get some extensions like MQT added the their snow stakes.  Mine is measuring 56", so should easily go back over 5' again.

52585341_2523553874341155_9021233219294461952_n.jpg.acdfcca9acab8d37c36123e591394c41.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haven’t looked at too many soundings but the 3kNAM does have a MAUL in the trowal and some ridiculous rates.

Some of the model output seems very unrealistic. The NAM and even the Euro/GFS are forecasting nearly impossible rates. The Euro has 1” of QPF falling in 6 hours, and the NAM more. Even the GFS/FV3 have high QPF amounts in that band. It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to watch unfold. I might end up taking a drive out if its within a couple counties.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z CMC sided with the GFS with a HUGE shift west.  Also, the 0z NAM 3k has thunderstorms in eastern and central Iowa early Saturday morning, the heaviest in the above freezing zone.  Makes me a bit nervous because if I get a quarter inch of ice (which is unlikely), it likely won't melt totally before the winds hit on Saturday evening (power outages).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Haven’t looked at too many soundings but the 3kNAM does have a MAUL in the trowal and some ridiculous rates.

Some of the model output seems very unrealistic. The NAM and even the Euro/GFS are forecasting nearly impossible rates. The Euro has 1” of QPF falling in 6 hours, and the NAM more. Even the GFS/FV3 have high QPF amounts in that band. It’s going to be absolutely fascinating to watch unfold. I might end up taking a drive out if its within a couple counties.  

I wouldn't say unrealistic.

What they are showing is really no different than what you see in a bombing East Coast storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Never much fun being in the middle of a system like this, with snows well west, and appreciable convection well southeast.  Interesting system, but looks like a windy, cold rainer followed by dry slot for most of the DVN cwa.  Hope we can get a boomer with some elevated 'vection before dry slot hits.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...