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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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7 minutes ago, PDIII said:

This one is better.. I guess. Don't they have one that shows all the sleet as snow?

 

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FV3 maps

snku_acc.us_ma.png

zr_acc.us_ma.png

I will raise your i con with hour 90 on Regular GFS  (yes it incudes sleet)

Screen Shot 2019-02-17 at 5.18.38 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

I wouldn't call this totally uncomplicated...and that's only because of the se ridge...

That's my concern as well. If the other models aren't accounting for just how much that ridge may flex...we may see them fall in line with the euro in the next day or so. That seems to be the one way this goes wrong.

It’s uncomplicated in the sense that we aren’t hoping for a phase, etc.  The storm will exist. It’s just a matter of whether it points at us.  

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6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Snow can fall fast and furious on a front end thump. High rates. 

Yea..this setup screams thump .Looking at 6 hr. Precip panels... some Eps members put  down as much as 1.00" qpf in 6 hours :o between 12z and 18z

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Just now, stormtracker said:

FV3 starts at 1am Wed.  I can get with that.

Seems like WAA comes in faster than cold smoke events overcoming dry air.  That’s a painful process to watch and wait. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Seems like WAA comes in faster than cold smoke events overcoming dry air.  That’s a painful process to watch and wait. 

I can’t say it is 100% of the time WAA comes in faster than modeled but I’m confident it comes in faster like 80% of the time. That bodes well for us i think.

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FV3 starts at 1am Wed.  I can get with that.

Whoa...that's a good bit faster than other guidance, and I think even faster than what it showed earlier.

ETA:  One thing I do like is seeing the precip start time moved up (earlier) lately.  Maybe 1AM is a bit much but at least pre-dawn now.  The other day there was a trend toward it starting later, well after 12Z in some model runs.

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Just now, jaydreb said:

It’s uncomplicated in the sense that we aren’t hoping for a phase, etc.  The storm will exist. It’s just a matter of whether it points at us.  

Oh yeah definitely--storm will indeed exist, lol Let's just see where the arrow will point...(would love to see the 0z euro come east a bit)

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A couple of others have mentioned a similarity to the VD storm in Feb. 2007.  I can sort of see that, but I don't know if this setup is as good as then.  Certainly different...didn't we have actual blocking at that time in 2007?  Also, the antecedent air was quite cold with that VD storm.  We got nearly all sleet in the DC area, which froze into a solid block of ice after the event.  That's I think the main difference...we had a week of solid cold right after, we won't have that this time (it's going to be warm after this is over).  But like I said, I can see some of the similarities too.  This also seems reminiscent of that Feb. 2015 event that started with extremely cold temps...though again, obviously this won't start with single-digits like that one.  History may not repeat, but it does rhyme, as they say...or something like that.

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35 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

FV3 is pretty similar to the Euro. Way too early for RGEM extrapolation. But man is it juiced up at 48 on the gulf coast.

Where is it aiming?

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Interesting that Friday looks similar setup wise as Wed ...like a mini version.  High strength has been increasing the past few runs . Maybe we go 2 for 2 . 

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The euro definitely could be on to something. No doubt. Remember though, it was giving everyone in the sub a high end advisory to warning level event 72 hrs before the Saturday “event.” Just something to take into account. It’s not infallible. 

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11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

A couple of others have mentioned a similarity to the VD storm in Feb. 2007.  I can sort of see that, but I don't know if this setup is as good as then.  Certainly different...didn't we have actual blocking at that time in 2007?  Also, the antecedent air was quite cold with that VD storm.  We got nearly all sleet in the DC area, which froze into a solid block of ice after the event.  That's I think the main difference...we had a week of solid cold right after, we won't have that this time (it's going to be warm after this is over).  But like I said, I can see some of the similarities too.  This also seems reminiscent of that Feb. 2015 event that started with extremely cold temps...though again, obviously this won't start with single-digits like that one.  History may not repeat, but it does rhyme, as they say...or something like that.

Remember that event well.  My family and I departed on VD to move to Bangkok.  Was chaos at IAD to say the least.  However, that event was a very prolonged sleet storm the likes of which we rarely get here if anywhere.  The HP to the NE of the GL was much stronger and the event was a combo of CAD with a W to E LP that ran a stationary front that helped preserve the CAD.  While there's no doubt a lot of CAD on this one, the BL lifts to the NE eventually on the models.  

What may make this interesting is if the secondary forms off the DELMARVA has some posters mentioned earlier today.  That may not help us much around here, but there's the hint of a decent band setting up to the NE of PSU. If only that were to happen down by the OBX...  

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Interesting that Friday looks similar setup wise as Wed ...like a mini version.  High strength has been increasing the past few runs . Maybe we go 2 for 2 . 

Yeah, could potentially be a stats padder for the northern tier. 

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1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

What do we say to the haters who say CAD snow is fake snow like Lake Effect Snow is?

It’s all fake snow. You would know that if you took the red pill!

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My thoughts haven’t changed. Imo someone is getting 6-10” from this where that plume ends up directed. On either side of that a larger area of lighter snows before flipping to ice. That thump will be somewhere between north central VA and Harrisburg PA imo. Guidance continues to bounce around with the exact location of that band.  The goal posts keep narrowing and we’re still inside them for now so that’s good. At least some accumulating snow and ice is starting to look very likely. It’s becoming a matter of how much. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My thoughts haven’t changed. Imo someone is getting 6-10” from this where that plume ends up directed. On either side of that a larger area of lighter snows before flipping to ice. That thump will be somewhere between north central VA and Harrisburg PA imo. Guidance continues to bounce around with the exact location of that band.  The goal posts keep narrowing and we’re still inside them for now so that’s good. At least some accumulating snow and ice is starting to look very likely. It’s becoming a matter of how much. 

Congrats Westminster!

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Little off topic for this upcoming system .. been seeing alittle bit of lightining down here near Afton Mt... first lightining/thunder of the year !

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My thoughts haven’t changed. Imo someone is getting 6-10” from this where that plume ends up directed. On either side of that a larger area of lighter snows before flipping to ice. That thump will be somewhere between north central VA and Harrisburg PA imo. Guidance continues to bounce around with the exact location of that band.  The goal posts keep narrowing and we’re still inside them for now so that’s good. At least some accumulating snow and ice is starting to look very likely. It’s becoming a matter of how much. 

Yea...I pretty much agree with your analysis . Between the ops and Eps extremely impressive 6 hour precip panels a huge thump is increasingly likely .I personally don't think it will be too narrow either as long as there is a trajectory from the sw in some fashion with the waa.  

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Better, but room for improvement

Any ice after that I wonder. It’s the ice on top of snow that makes this exciting. 

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