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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.  In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday.  Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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12z GFS doesn't have much in the MDR developing after Lorenzo recurves way out to sea in the middle of the ATL... there looks to be a system way out that forms and meanders in the Yucatan Peninsula as we get towards the end of the first week of October... and then looks like some homebrew at the very end of the run

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NHC is now mentioning a "Disturbance 1" near the northeastern tip of Yucatan, it has a 10%/2day-20%/5day chance of becoming TD Melissa or 100L. I'd bet that this is the same wave that had been appearing on the earlier forecasts to the ESE of Jamaica and was dropped a couple days ago.

Looks to be headed for Veracruz or Tampico, MX, but I'll just get a little nervous anyway  :] .

Anything around the very warm Bay of Campeche at this time of year has a chance of cooking off.

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, on
Tropical Storm Karen, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Lorenzo located several hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located near the
northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is currently
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeast
Gulf of Mexico. Some gradual development of the disturbance is
possible while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico during the next several days before it reaches the
northeast coast of Mexico late Friday or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Forecaster Zelinsk

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

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Looks like this time next week we could have a developing system coming off of Africa and another one in the western Caribbean. The African one looks like a low rider with a big ridge above it, could make it across the Atlantic without turning out to sea. The Caribbean one would make landfall somewhere. 

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Lorenzo should become intense enough to get the N. Atlantic Basin above the century mark for ACE. @ 88.8 we are just above climatological mean of 76.4 for this date in the season. This season should finish well above average as we may have a few more MDR systems. Of course there is always the western Caribbean to watch out for in Oct. At this time, the N. Atl. and N. Indian are the only basins above seasonal average for calendar date. The N. Hemisphere as a whole is below average @ date with 332.3 (373.1).

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13 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like this time next week we could have a developing system coming off of Africa and another one in the western Caribbean. The African one looks like a low rider with a big ridge above it, could make it across the Atlantic without turning out to sea. The Caribbean one would make landfall somewhere. 

The 00z Euro has a pretty deep trough digging in days 9-10 that would likely break down the ridge and pull the system North as it approaches 40W. Hopefully that trough is overdone. The 06z GFS looks similar for the same time period. 

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I was just at a meeting with a South Florida Water Management District board member. I told her that a great many people follow their Hurricane Model Plots page during the season and that their radar was especially helpful in following Dorian over the Bahamas. She was very pleased, and said she would mention it at a future meeting.

If you'd like to join me saying a quick thank you, click on the orange "Ask Us" tab at the top of this page. They do read them! https://www.sfwmd.gov/ 

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On 9/26/2019 at 3:01 PM, PSLwx said:

I was just at a meeting with a South Florida Water Management District board member. I told her that a great many people follow their Hurricane Model Plots page during the season and that their radar was especially helpful in following Dorian over the Bahamas. She was very pleased, and said she would mention it at a future meeting.

If you'd like to join me saying a quick thank you, click on the orange "Ask Us" tab at the top of this page. They do read them! https://www.sfwmd.gov/ 

Thanks alot. They'll probably get rid of it now.

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11 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The past couple days of GFS runs all have a powerful hurricane forming in the south Caribbean in a couple weeks. It's obviously really far down the road but will be interesting to see if the models keep it up. 

6z still has it.

This is the time of the year for those storms to pop up. 

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6z still has it. This is the time of the year for those storms to pop up.   

 

Such development is very typical of the pattern. The fantasy storm is developing out of a SW Caribbean-Central American surface trough/gyre, not entirely different from Nate in '17 or Michael in '18. Essentially westward propagating tropical waves move into contact and interact with said gyre, amplifying low-level convergence. All you need is a decent upper level high in place and voila. Also steering currents and place of cyclogenesis is critical, of course; and some monster storms have developed out of these features over the years: Mitch, Otto, Wilma, Kate, Michael being the most notable. Hopefully anything that does develop remains weak or doesn't go through one of the aforementioned major hurricane landfall scenarios.
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12z GFS still has the big Caribbean storm at the end of the run, and the 12z Euro shows a small African wave trying to develop this Wednesday.  The model shows it barely getting across the Atlantic, but if it makes it into the eastern Caribbean, that could be another one to watch.

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12z GFS still has the big Caribbean storm at the end of the run, and the 12z Euro shows a small African wave trying to develop this Wednesday.  The model shows it barely getting across the Atlantic, but if it makes it into the eastern Caribbean, that could be another one to watch.
MJO has moved into a suppressive phase. But we'll see where everything lines up in about 10 days. In the meantime it should be quiet.
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Still some hints of possible development in the Caribbean Sea towards the end of some model runs. The African wave train has slowed and we are getting out of the MDR season. I would focus on the Caribbean, Gulf, and Atlantic Coasts in the coming weeks, especially if some of these first fronts of the season making it through hang up over the warm waters of this area. I think we will still see a few more systems before all is said and done

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The GFS is still loving that storm developing in the south Caribbean on October 13, although it keeps going back and forth on it moving north towards Cuba or west into Central America.  It's been forecasting it for over a week now... attached is 9/28, 10/2 and today, all showing 18z October 13.  Pretty darn consistent.  

gfs.jpg

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That (southern) area of disturbed weather off the SE coast actually looks pretty good all things considered. There's clearly a low level swirl with convection displaced to the northeast. 40% odds for development now. 12z Euro is more robust on odds of development in the next 24 hours. 

It's been bringing tons of much needed rain here in SE Florida.  It's been thunderstorming almost nonstop for the past two days in Boca Raton.

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GFS keeps insisting on an impressive storm in the Caribbean next week.  Most other models are not too bullish and show a minimal TS at best. This system originates from South America, which is kind of unusual and one of the reasons I'm not sold on the idea.

 

A lot of heat potential in the western Carib, if something can stall over water long enough its an easy CAT 5 like Wilma or Mitch. There hasn't been a major in the western Carib in a long time.   Mathew didn't really make it past the eastern tip of Cuba.

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