LandofLincoln Posted September 6, 2019 Heading to Antigua next Tuesday through Monday the following week. Have to say I'm rooting against this one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kyle-1 Posted September 6, 2019 12z ECMWF still doesn't show development for 94L. Considering how poorly it did with Dorian, increasing ensemble support, combined with it being peak season, makes me doubt that scenario. 06z/12z GFS picked it up again, but 18z has dropped it in favor of the wave immediately behind it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Dews Posted September 6, 2019 7 hours ago, LandofLincoln said: Heading to Antigua next Tuesday through Monday the following week. Have to say I'm rooting against this one. don't be a buzzkill Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LandofLincoln Posted September 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: don't be a buzzkill Hey I’m fine with the 18z GFS solution, because I’ll be out of the area by then. But I’d rather not see my vacation have to be ended early. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BombsAway1288 Posted September 7, 2019 The GFS doesn't know what to do with this thing. Keeps stalling it/slowing it down north of the Turks though. Dangerous area if it did end up there. Whats the Euro have? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2019 5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: The GFS doesn't know what to do with this thing. Keeps stalling it/slowing it down north of the Turks though. Dangerous area if it did end up there. Whats the Euro have? It looks like it stalls 94L but then kinda merges it with the wave behind it which then develops it into a nice storm but keeps it out to sea. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2019 Now the 12z's Euro and GFS are in general agreement with a storm developing just north of Puerto Rico. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted September 8, 2019 Though 94L comes and goes with modeling development, and should continue getting watched, it is the following wave exiting the west African coast I believe will be our first CV longtracker with potential impacts. Gabrielle is technically a CV long tracker. At any rate, the new tropical wave should remain southerly in track through the MDR and strong signals of ridging next week may even drive it through the Lesser Antilles as a Caribbean runner. It already has a broad closed low and should detach itself from the ITCZ / monsoonal trough not too long after it emerges. This is way in advance and obviously subject to change, but it just has that look as well as decent low-level versus upper-level modeling support over the next 5-7 days. We are entering the height of the Cape Verde season climatological speaking, but you still have to have a favorable MDR. It looks like September into October will remain active. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2019 The last two GFS runs now show the wave behind 94L becoming Dorian 2.0... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, Windspeed said: I thought when I produced my outlook, I was being really bullish. Apparently it wasn’t enough. Everything I’ve seen the last few days is a blaring signal for a lot of activity through early October. Combine that with the upper level pattern over the Atlantic and I think our tropical season is going to get a lot more rough. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 8, 2019 At the end of the run the GFS wants to take out the rest of the Bahamas! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
aperson Posted September 8, 2019 6 hours ago, Windspeed said: I feel like Ventrice busts a lot but I thought his posts on this domain were really interesting, especially given the timing and infrequency of SHem SSW events: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 9, 2019 Southern Hemisphere stratosphere doesn't mean much I think except for general "warming-neutralizing". 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted September 9, 2019 12z GFS still develops 94L as the system approaches the lesser Antilles, very close to where Dorian formed. The track is then close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted September 9, 2019 12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: He's just a late bloomer but eventually joins the party EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands It's almost the exact same route that Dorian took through the Caribbean. Does anyone know how the GFS and Euro looked at this point for Dorian? Tropical Tidbits only goes back to September 2. I'd love to see the models from mid-August. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro had to play catch-up with the initial formation of Dorian. https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1165274788564209664 https://mobile.twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1164956582926405632 Very interesting. This soon-to-be-95L could be another big one then. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2019 The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
olafminesaw Posted September 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida Kinda unrealistic how quick it recovers after being swallowed up by Hispanola, but... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the ghost of leroy Posted September 9, 2019 39 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The 18z GFS decimates the entire state of Florida Keep us posted 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2019 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Kinda unrealistic how quick it recovers after being swallowed up by Hispanola, but... Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2019 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah that system would be destroyed under that circumstance unless it was moving 25 kts as it crossed Hispaniola The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification. Or the model is on crack. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWolf Posted September 10, 2019 10 hours ago, Floydbuster said: The GFS shows a dynamic outflow setup over the Bahamas/Straits prior to Florida landfall. That's probably why the dramatic intensification. Or the model is on crack. Ya, more like the model is on Crack...especially this far out. Interesting to see how it all evolves though going forward??? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seminole Posted September 10, 2019 12z Euro picking up on what the GFS has been hinting at albeit much weaker and slower. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
