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2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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12 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Because it would bring catastrophic storm surge flooding into Chesapeake Bay, NYC Harbor, and Boston Harbor, while bringing flooding rains and torrential winds to Washington, Baltimore, NJ, NYC, and Boston.   

Nope.  A storm slamming perpendicular into the east coast at any one major city location would be the worst possible track (i.e.straight into the Ches. bay, SNJ/Del Bay, LI, etc.)

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11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

LOL Wow! That storm is almost an afterthought with Dorian literally getting all the attention.

Hopefully you don't have any damage.

How much more you expecting. Have to ask considering it's not being talked about

24 hours rainfall, as reported near the airport, 507mm (20 inches)... Slight rain at the moment, and not big accumulations are expected, although the next few 2-3 days we are still expecting precipitation.

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13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

NHC gave it a 70% chance of development within 5 days. Spaghetti models are pretty locked into the idea of slow development and a West track.

If it can stick together and make its way into the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, it could have the potential to really ramp up.  I don't think Dorian caused any upwelling in those areas so the water should be prime for intensification.  

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12z ECMWF still doesn't show development for 94L. Considering how poorly it did with Dorian, increasing ensemble support, combined with it being peak season, makes me doubt that scenario.


06z/12z GFS picked it up again, but 18z has dropped it in favor of the wave immediately behind it. 

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5 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

The GFS doesn't know what to do with this thing. Keeps stalling it/slowing it down north of the Turks though.  Dangerous area if it did end up there.

Whats the Euro have?

It looks like it stalls 94L but then kinda merges it with the wave behind it which then develops it into a nice storm but keeps it out to sea. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. 

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Though 94L comes and goes with modeling development, and should continue getting watched, it is the following wave exiting the west African coast I believe will be our first CV longtracker with potential impacts. Gabrielle is technically a CV long tracker. At any rate, the new tropical wave should remain southerly in track through the MDR and strong signals of ridging next week may even drive it through the Lesser Antilles as a Caribbean runner. It already has a broad closed low and should detach itself from the ITCZ / monsoonal trough not too long after it emerges. This is way in advance and obviously subject to change, but it just has that look as well as decent low-level versus upper-level modeling support over the next 5-7 days. We are entering the height of the Cape Verde season climatological speaking, but you still have to have a favorable MDR. It looks like September into October will remain active.



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