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PD Weekend 2019 Storm Threats


WxUSAF
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Actually saw an improvement on the Euro suite at 500's for our Sat storm. We are getting better separation with the shortwave and the SW troughing which is allowing better ridging to develop behind the shortwave. This in turn is giving us a stronger shortwave. We are seeing this across the board (Euro op, EPS means, control run). Unfortunately this improvement was offset with a more southern push of the confluence to our north as some NS energy pushes through. So we are seeing our system suppressed farther south and weaker as it has less room to strengthen. Take that extra suppression out and we are probably talking a beefier version of what we saw with the 12Z snow maps.

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25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually saw an improvement on the Euro suite at 500's for our Sat storm. We are getting better separation with the shortwave and the SW troughing which is allowing better ridging to develop behind the shortwave. This in turn is giving us a stronger shortwave. We are seeing this across the board (Euro op, EPS means, control run). Unfortunately this improvement was offset with a more southern push of the confluence to our north as some NS energy pushes through. So we are seeing our system suppressed farther south and weaker as it has less room to strengthen. Take that extra suppression out and we are probably talking a beefier version of what we saw with the 12Z snow maps.

Still time for some minor tweaks. We have the inevitable north shift inside of 24 hours to look forward to. A 1-3" event would work for me.

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Cheers brother.  2019/20 will be better I can feel it!  

Almost has to be. If it wasn't for our over performer, this winter would have been a major disappointment. Still time to score with all the storm chances but that se ridge has been a killer.  Timing something obviously would be key.

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4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Almost has to be. If it wasn't for our over performer, this winter would have been a major disappointment. Still time to score with all the storm chances but that se ridge has been a killer.  Timing something obviously would be key.

Do you know if these models have algorithms that allow for changes to take place on runs routinely based on past performances. Like a relaxation of the se ridge occurs after affecting our area for about a week which then allows the LR to look better than it really is? I know I'm probably not asking this question the correct way.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Still time for some minor tweaks. We have the inevitable north shift inside of 24 hours to look forward to. A 1-3" event would work for me.

Let’s hope this was nothing more than the famous windshield wiper effect. Yesterday north, overnight south, coming back north today. 

 

Eta: by happy hour gfs today, bourbon barrel stouts will be flowing. ;)

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The usual model mayhem...GFS shifted back south overnight.  Outside of extreme southern MD, most of the state is a miss with the Saturday event.  It's unfortunate because the source of cold air aloft will be more prevalent at that time.   Late Sunday's system still looks too warm to me...mix at best if anything does happen.   And unless the colder air can lock in place on Tuesday as the warm front tries to move north, any precipitation with that one will be a mix too.   At least in my neck of the woods.   Overall, not too impressive over the next 5 days.  If any of us in the area can get 1-3" at any given time, it should be considered a win. 

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13 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Worse, trending the wrong way. 

The LPC and heavy precip .75” isn’t shifting south. The confluence to the north is flexing and shifting south. Relax that slightly and precip comes back north. A north trend is never a gaurentee but the system isn’t getting weaker it’s just that precip is getting sheared off. Any slight relaxation or strengthening of the confluence will have big implications for how far north precip makes it or doesn’t. At least the core of heavy precip isn’t really moving south and the lpc isn’t getting kicked down to georgia. 

 

My goal for today is that things don’t get worse than what the 6z Euro just showed. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

This is a December redo. Models picking up on stronger confluence as we approach the event. Uggg.

I was thinking the same thing. 

The wave guide over North America sucks for this threat, and the confluence is never lined up for us, even worse for areas to our NE. 

Amazing too, no storms to the benchmark yet , and it is mid Feb. 

Disturbances fly in and exit right.  Maybe that changes at the very end of Feb,  if we get the trough to set up in the East,  as alluded to by many here. 

As for the short term threat, and even longer term ,say what you want about the EPS snowfall trends but it seems it is going to possibly be correct regarding less snow here than others thought , from just three days ago. Needed to have consistency and we lost it about three days ago. 

Lastly these threat this winter have been either coastal hugger, or surpression or cutter. And the Midwest in the target zone and the SE ridge more Nina like. We need a shake up on a grand scale. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Must.

Suppress.

Inner.

 

DEB

 

 

 

Ok, I'm back. :)

I'm doing pretty well suppressing mine.  We all gotta hang in there.  Plenty of time to move back north.  It's disheartening though to see we're having the same problems...suppressing flow from our north.  

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7 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Suppression Depression for Saturday evening. Monday and now Thursday is worryingly north for me. 

Looks like we're entering an active period. Hoping for one nice one to end February

wow.  Toms River....my home town.  TRHS East...Go Raiders!  So 2 places I have lived where the snow climo is a bag of flaming turds.   

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm doing pretty well suppressing mine.  We all gotta hang in there.  Plenty of time to move back north.  It's disheartening though to see we're having the same problems...suppressing flow from our north.  

Yeah and then our other problem likely returns just after that. Ridge builds in the Caribbean then expands NW, and probably nothing in the NS to compress the flow to offset it.

We really do fail every which way around here lol.

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While DC/NVA are certainly not out of it, we need the southern trend to halt today and keep us close.  If RIC can stay the bullseye today with EZF on the northern edge of 3”, I’d feel good for getting that last 24 hour push north to get NVA/DC into the 3”+ totals.  

I’m hosting a bunch of family this weekend in Deep Creek including six nieces and nephews who really want to see snow...even just 2-3” there would be great for them.  

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah and then our other problem likely returns just after that. Ridge builds in the Caribbean then expands NW, and probably nothing in the NS to compress the flow to offset it.

We really do fail every which way around here lol.

It’s actually kind of funny...a little bit of the ridge would help us this weekend but we can’t get it when it could help.  

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

While DC/NVA are certainly not out of it, we need the southern trend to halt today and keep us close.  If RIC can stay the bullseye today with EZF on the northern edge of 3”, I’d feel good for getting that last 24 hour push north to get NVA/DC into the 3”+ totals.  

I’m hosting a bunch of family this weekend in Deep Creek including six nieces and nephews who really want to see snow...even just 2-3” there would be great for them.  

I don't want another 12/9.... 

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