Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

What I don’t understand is yesterday when the runs showed that incredible high  strength and position peeps were pretty enthusiastic and seemingly confident, I mean damn, when Ryan starts posting and getting excited it’s a good measure for CT residents to begin to pay attention. Why does one warm run send heads to the Tobin, shouldn’t we at least see what today has to say?

It’s pretty much a thread the needle pattern at the moment for a advisory event in S SNE , when guidance shows that I’m skeptical high pressure doesn’t trend crappier 

 

[CoastalWx]

The high is fine. Might mean more ice inland. But it’s trending a bit stronger with primary and less secondary which means quicker warmth and changeover. Especially aloft. 

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything on track and looks good. One off op run 

I couldn't disagree more.  This is not just an op run nor is it one model that's shifting.

To be sure, the outcome is far from set in stone, but to say "everything on track and looks good" is simply false.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The high is fine. Might mean more ice inland. But it’s trending a bit stronger with primary and less secondary which means quicker warmth and changeover. Especially aloft. 

Isn’t that basically how everything has gone this year? I’d put my money on a stronger primary trend as we move closer. We may score a few inches of slop to start because of the good cold at the beginning. 

Other than that, looks like a sloppy mess, signature of winter 18-19.

Bring on the nice weather. Next 

[Ginx snewx]

Here we go, lol have fun

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro tickled colder. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nam looks like a sleet fest in CT.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro tickled colder. 

Does this have the potential to be a big icer (.5 or more accretion) asking for a friend in CT

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Does this have the potential to be a big icer (.5 or more accretion) asking for a friend in CT

Plausible? Yeah. But unlikely. Residence time is pretty low for the icing. It's prob like only 3-5 hours of icing before dryslot and freezing drizzle. Qpf wasted on snow and sleet on the front. 

It takes a lot to get a half inch of accretion. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Plausible? Yeah. But unlikely. Residence time is pretty low for the icing. It's prob like only 3-5 hours of icing before dryslot and freezing drizzle. Qpf wasted on snow and sleet on the front. 

It takes a lot to get a half inch of accretion. 

Funny to read this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Sucks when we waste qpf on snow. Only in this shitty winter.

[Bostonseminole]

Sucks when we waste qpf on snow. Only in this shitty winter.

So is winter not reawakening?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

So is winter not reawakening?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

It’s been in dream state for 3 months, eventually it has to. 

[dryslot]

Some more good  in here.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some more good  in here.

Yeah I might need to start purging. This is still a storm discussion thread after all. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I might need to start purging. This is still a storm discussion thread after all. 

Not the trend that most were looking for for an all snow event, But there was still a good burst on the front end for those areas that are in question,   We’re still a good 3.5 days out so things can still change, We’ve already seen that over the last couple days on this so nothing says that will be the final outcome, But this year has been frustrating, I get it, But need to except it for what it is and hope we get one to pan out, It has too at some point.

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I might need to start purging. This is still a storm discussion thread after all. 

Let the weenies get it out of their system...it is cathartic.  No one will remember this storm or go back and study it...    I’m more annoyed by the model inconsistency than the melts

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not the trend that most were looking for for an all snow event, But there was still a good burst on the front end for those areas that are in question,   We’re still a good 3.5 days out so things can still change, We’ve already seen that over the last couple days on this so nothing says that will be the final outcome, But this year has been frustrating, I get it, But need to except it for what it is and hope we get one to pan out, It has too at some point.

I see no reason to expect things to improve for this season.  It is the Gordon Hayward of winters...

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Let the weenies get it out of their system...it is cathartic.  No one will remember this storm or go back and study it...    I’m more annoyed by the model inconsistency than the melts

I don't care if people melt...but prob better not in this thread. The banter thread is way under-utilized. 

 

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Let the weenies get it out of their system...it is cathartic.  No one will remember this storm or go back and study it...    I’m more annoyed by the model inconsistency than the melts

And here lies the problem, If some were/are expecting something in the lines of an HECS then your in for dissapintment this season, This one will end up being somes biggest event so far this season, Even with the changeover, There already has beeen several with this same scenario, Snow/sleeet/Zr/Rn, All snow events have been far and few this winter for many including here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I might need to start purging. This is still a storm discussion thread after all. 

Cleanse your soul:

[tavwtby]

I mean 2015-16 I only managed just under 28", and for all the data I compiled for the closest official collection point, if i get 9" more I'll pass that, so in recent memory it's not the worst... I do think it's the model inconsistency that's frustrating...any explanation on the reason behind the giveth and taketh away from the run to run? is it the handling of the Nino? or just whatever upgrade to the models actually made it worse?

[Ginx snewx]

Mwn gusted to 148 highest wind in 10 years

[Ginx snewx]

@40/70 Benchmark 68 69 analog

The winter of 1968-69 stands as Sea-Tac’s snowiest, with a whopping 67.5 inches

[Typhoon Tip]

Not singling anyone out  ... but this thread has a demonstratively, emo-guided tenor about it. But, I mean, more so than the normal shenanigans of the "razor sharp scientific insight" we commonly soak in with the public domain spaces.

Partially evidenced by the lack of counter-point discussion to this event .. And no - non-formulaic bitch flippancy ... doesn't count as objective counter-point discussion. More likely, it reflects the lack this winter's unrelenting anti-climatic  (puns always intended...), boring cinema that is eroding patience.

I understand. It's out of desperation/withdraws ... I have sympathy for the addictive behavior - and it really is like that.  Folks need their high ... There is some kind of charge .. or "high," individuals of the collective seem to experience when model rolls out bomb (it is hoped...) . I've opined in the past ... just how much I believe (and still do) that the run-up modeling has become as important if not more so, than the actual event itself.  It's hard to prove...I just know, if the winter snowed 70 total inches, and the models missed every storm, the collective enthusiast-tenor would be tepid about the winter in general. But ... if the winter snowed 70" ...and there were three historic bombs held in epic proportions across very many modeling solutions, that same winter scores an A!

Anyway, this event to me has never sat right... But, I admit that I'm a bit at a loss, too.. I just don't see this as any kind of typology at all. My assessment isn't optimistic beyond ice .. but we'll see.

I mentioned the following many pages/few days ago in the general Feb discussion... I don't see that much has changed:

1 .. .being that the flow is less than ideal for bombs - I agree with that.  We don't have a more text book sloped/meridian flow ...tumbling a S/W from the top shelf with favorable W-E wave spacing setting it's greatest amplitude sights on the lower OV to MA regions..   What the Euro was doing was "stretching" the flow in the prior runs...  Now, it seems to be stretching less; but, that means that the ridge position still being out along or even slightly W of the west coast.. .puts the primary wind-up region through the Lakes, and so removing the stretch it ends up west..  

2 ... it enters a plausible clue to GFS error ..in that one of its peccadilloes is that it runs a stretched/stretching/progressive bias in the mid and extended range. This is noted by NCEP and modeling et large.  Not really debatable as it's an empirically measured bias in this particular model.   Which... unfortunately could very well be re-introducing too much coastal/Miller B detection ..because its not supposed to have extended its mechanics that far E in the first place.  

The last 24 hours of modeling seems to really be playing out these above two points with eerily exacting [disappointment].  I mean I don't really care to take recognition for pointing this out...those that point out counter/offset negative impressions that are right, so rarely do in the court of public opinion... But, sufficed it is to say, the only thing looking at this parade of events they have going for them is the nuanced timing of polar high pressure over SE Canada.  Otherwise, the genera of the synoptic hemisphere (and this is also heavily been suggested by the GEFs derivatives by the way (...you know? tele-f'n-connectors? ) ) really doesn't support more text-book appeals.  We unfortunately have to boot-leg cobble events out of luck ... in an unlucky circumstance.  ha!  I like that...

The next system down wind falls to the same uncertainty sloped toward disappointment, too - unless things change at a rudimentary level. 

 

[moneypitmike]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not singling anyone out  ... but this thread has a demonstratively, emo-guided tenor about it. But, I mean, more so than the normal shenanigans of the "razor sharp scientific insight" we commonly soak in with the public domain spaces.

Partially evidenced by the lack of counter-point discussion to this event .. And no - non-formulaic bitch flippancy ... doesn't count as objective counter-point discussion. More likely, it reflects the lack this winter's unrelenting anti-climatic  (puns always intended...), boring cinema that is eroding patience.

I understand. It's out of desperation/withdraws ... I have sympathy for the addictive behavior - and it really is like that.  Folks need their high ... There is some kind of charge .. or "high," individuals of the collective seem to experience when model rolls out bomb (it is hoped...) . I've opined in the past ... just how much I believe (and still do) that the run-up modeling has become as important if not more so, than the actual event itself.  It's hard to prove...I just know, if the winter snowed 70 total inches, and the models missed every storm, the collective enthusiast-tenor would be tepid about the winter in general. But ... if the winter snowed 70" ...and there were three historic bombs held in epic proportions across very many modeling solutions, that same winter scores an A!

Anyway, this event to me has never sat right... But, I admit that I'm a bit at a loss, too.. I just don't see this as any kind of typology at all. My assessment isn't optimistic beyond ice .. but we'll see.

I mentioned the following many pages/few days ago in the general Feb discussion... I don't see that much has changed:

1 .. .being that the flow is less than ideal for bombs - I agree with that.  We don't have a more text book sloped/meridian flow ...tumbling a S/W from the top shelf with favorable W-E wave spacing setting it's greatest amplitude sights on the lower OV to MA regions..   What the Euro was doing was "stretching" the flow in the prior runs...  Now, it seems to be stretching less; but, that means that the ridge position still being out along or even slightly W of the west coast.. .puts the primary wind-up region through the Lakes, and so removing the stretch it ends up west..  

2 ... it enters a plausible clue to GFS error ..in that one of its peccadilloes is that it runs a stretched/stretching/progressive bias in the mid and extended range. This is noted by NCEP and modeling et large.  Not really debatable as it's an empirically measured bias in this particular model.   Which... unfortunately could very well be re-introducing too much coastal/Miller B detection ..because its not supposed to have extended its mechanics that far E in the first place.  

The last 24 hours of modeling seems to really be playing out these above two points with eerily exacting [disappointment].  I mean I don't really care to take recognition for pointing this out...those that point out counter/offset negative impressions that are right, so rarely do in the court of public opinion... But, sufficed it is to say, the only thing looking at this parade of events they have going for them is the nuanced timing of polar high pressure over SE Canada.  Otherwise, the genera of the synoptic hemisphere (and this is also heavily been suggested by the GEFs derivatives by the way (...you know? tele-f'n-connectors? ) ) really doesn't support more text-book appeals.  We unfortunately have to boot-leg cobble events out of luck ... in an unlucky circumstance.  ha!  I like that...

The next system down wind falls to the same uncertainty sloped toward disappointment, too - unless things change at a rudimentary level. 

 

The next system (up-wind btw. ) has much less uncertainty around it--at least that's how I'm viewing it.

[WinterWolf]

As I said way back in the fall...Euro ain’t what she used to be...period.   Modeling has been all over the dam place...the thing goes from the coldest model to the warmest in one run.  Before that horrid upgrade it got a few years back, it would never do that.  Man they ruined that model.  

And Scooter is off the rails lol..unraveling faster than kite string on a windy day...

[Ginx snewx]

Please don't quote Dr Freud,  just respond

[ineedsnow]

12z NAM is icy!!

[jbenedet]

-NAO is real, and therefore a stout QC High showing up across guidance very likely won’t be ephemeral.

The flow across the western/central CONUS seems too meridional to me, and not progressive enough given a ++AO. I think last night runs will be “peak primary intensity” in terms of what solutions are produced going forward.