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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd be exponentially happier with that compared to all rain. 

Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me.  I suck at analogies...sorry. 

Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year.  Maybe more than one. Just not sure this is going to be one of them. 

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@psuhoffman  That's a great look....probably some -20's coming.  If the ops are correct we should start seeing the SOI tumble in about 3-4 days.  Maybe this fails us also but we have yet to see a legit crash this season...Something new and improved is on the way.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

I am okay with it because i after i saw the 00z euro and the 6z and 12z gfs...i am resigned to the fact that this storm will be a letdown but anything that i can get to pad the stats I am good for. This is a transitional week so this is bonus snow. Maybe the euro is doing the lag/too much amplification in the mid range thing too. Friday was my demarcation day. If it was still a threat by Friday, i would take it more seriously 

Very reasonable 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me.  I suck at analogies...sorry. 

Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year.  Maybe more than one. Just not this is going to be one of them. 

I think it will be more than one for your area easily.  Next week has a much better chance to work for you.  You might be down by 14 but your team is much stronger. 

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

"meh" is all I'll say to a little snow changing over to a big driving rainstorm. Kinda sucks, but I suppose it's better than nothing.

i'm in the "not too interested in that" camp as well, but on the bright side, it does provide a glimmer of hope that the transition to mix/rain gets delayed.  if it starts as rain, that ain't good.

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51 minutes ago, frd said:

Hmm, following the lead of the CFS maybe. EPS will be telling. Regardless, expect big time improvements to show themselves very soon. 

 

Cfs got even better today lol

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Eps snow actually went up but mostly in long range

Not ready to give up on early next week...inner weenie won’t allow it.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Eps snow actually went up but mostly in long range

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

End of run.  

Thanks ! 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes...game on!!!

psu you think that the EPS might trend even better ( 360 hours is Feb 21 st ) beyond this look here. 

It looks like it is moving towards the phase 8 MJO composite but is lacking I feel with the ridging out West. 

Then again that steroid Pac jet has been there all winter , the fast flow, etc.,  maybe all the changes taking place slow it, and it changes. 

 

 

 

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Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 
Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

PD III

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again

HM, said KUish after the 15th the other day.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

And , you know this, but the more the MJO goes into a higher orbit the faster the pattern transition and such.  I would think then that the good phases you want a very high orbit and the warmer phases you want a lower orbit. 

If you think otherwise please let me know. 

Lastly, you can see today the slowing and road blocks being created that HM spoke about regarding NAO taking place.  in the EPS more and more.

 

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks ! 

psu you think that the EPS might trend even better ( 360 hours is Feb 21 st ) beyond this look here. 

It looks like it is moving towards the phase 8 MJO composite but is lacking I feel with the ridging out West. 

Then again that steroid Pac jet has been there all winter , the fast flow, etc.,  maybe all the changes taking place slow it, and it changes. 

 

 

 

Yes...but I also think that look day 10-15 is good. Day 10 starts with a lot of cold in place. The se ridge is muted. That blocking and 50/50 look suggests waves won’t cut. That’s a better overrunning wave setup.  I think the se ridge is likely skewed by some members that go crazy with it. Watch the eps continue to adjust that trough axis east some future runs. After that if we transition to a split flow with the pac jet undercutting that becomes a hecs look week 3-4 imo. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Dont want to not believe it but are we still looking for epic patterns beyond day 10?

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hasnt the EPS had a day 10 nao like all winter?

No. Day 15 and would degrade by day 10. This is going the other way. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Yea, we'll see how many runs we can get with that look holding but oh man... what a nice d15 panel... woofy

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sick off everything being 10-15 days out. We really need to score early next week.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dont want to not believe it but are we still looking for epic patterns beyond day 10?

It's better than seeing vomit patterns beyond d10

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:
16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again

I have my tin foil hat on and am positioned in an underground bunker with my ham radio at the ready!

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Dude...soi is crashing hard and mjo going apesheet into 8/1 and that happens inside realistic range.  Eps and op suddenly bringing back NAO blocking day 10+. Monster 50/50 look.  Trust me we’re going to end up on the winning side of that gradient after day 10. 

Time to get on our hecs hunter suits again

Image result for male thong

 

complete w/ safety harness system that we all use when hunting.

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I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

Would you settle for MECS Feb 30th?

Some people are IMPOSSIBLE to please 

:P

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Image result for male thong

 

complete w/ safety harness system that we all use when hunting.

Shame on you. That is something that can not be unseen. Going to have nightmares now. 

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dont want to not believe it but are we still looking for epic patterns beyond day 10?

Maybe. I believe it. All year the mjo and soi have dumped on us. Last time I got pessimistic mid January it was because the soi and mjo had looked good day 10-15 and was going to crap again. Then the pattern started to degrade. This time the soi and mjo are trending better in the short range and the pattern is responding. 

But I took crap for debbing a couple weeks ago on late Jan and early February. I’m honestly fully on board with the potential Feb 20 to March 10...maybe longer. 

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