Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, nj2va said: Honestly, there's no point worrying what a D10-15 forecast looks like since it changes on a dime this winter. If the MJO forecast is right and we're in Phase 8 soon, I'll roll the dice there. We have a trackable threat inside 10 days staring at us on the Euro....seems we should be paying attention to that IMO. Don't forget the FV3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Honestly, there's no point worrying what a D10-15 forecast looks like since it changes on a dime this winter. If the MJO forecast is right and we're in Phase 8 soon, I'll roll the dice there. We have a trackable threat inside 10 days staring at us on the Euro....seems we should be paying attention to that IMO. Worrying and discussing are two different things. I felt most of the comments were pretty hopeful and level headed regarding the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Worrying and discussing are two different things. I felt most of the comments were pretty hopeful and level headed regarding the long range. do you know the lag between MJO phases and effects. If MJO goes into phase 8, do we immediately get into phase 8 effects? I assume so right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Despite the crap look on the GEFS through most of the extended it still is seeing something. One of the better looking means this year... And some heavy hitters showing up on the members. Take it for whatever it is worth. Extreme variance. There are some absolute crazy ridge solutions skewing means. On top of that there are some members that snow with an h5 mean that’s awful. It happens. Feb 97 was such an event. If you saw a 5 day h5 mean for that week there is no way you would expect a 4-8” snowstorm snuck in there. That can happen if you have a 50/50 getting a high stuck over a ridge. You end up with low level cold pressing and or stuck in the ridge. The overall takeaway though is extreme variance and models struggling mightily with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: do you know the lag between MJO phases and effects. If MJO goes into phase 8, do we immediately get into phase 8 effects? I assume so right? I've tested this before, the best correlation is at Day+0. Maybe you are asking if it is strong in previous phases then still above 1.0 but weakening on some kind of cosine... I think it's just a weak phase 8 signal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I've tested this before, the best correlation is at Day+0. So was that a yes or no irt the original question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's where I'm at. Barely looked at models over the weekend until just before the superbowl and just a quick scan today. One thing that's blatantly obvious is the level of uncertainty d7+. You guys have been tracking run over run changes. I took some days off and it's like night and day in the long range. +AO now? lol. Will it be a -AO in 2 more days? Maybe. I decided to just let this week ride and not get hung up on anything long range. Proving to be a good decision because as the discussion topics change daily here, one thing that hasn't changed is we still don't really know what may or may not happen in a week. I'll stick with my hunch and say it's probably going to snow here not too far down the road. I won't speculate on how it happens because I really don't know and neither do the models. Mixed/borderline event still seems most likely. Totally with you there especially if a MJO trip to Phase 8 in historically our snowiest month happens. This winter will go as one of (if not the worst) for LR forecasting. Will be a fascinating post-winter analysis for someone (much smarter than me) to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: do you know the lag between MJO phases and effects. If MJO goes into phase 8, do we immediately get into phase 8 effects? I assume so right? There was a study published in monthly weather review last April by Dr Gina Henderson that suggests the average extratropical atmospheric response to the mjo in the northern hemisphere is 7 days. Assuming somewhere mid strong phase 7 starts to have positive effects and guidance says we get there in 6 days (euro) or 9 days (gefs) that would put the response near the end of the ensembles which is when the gefs started to show a shift. That doesn’t mean the euro can’t be right about day 6-10. The mjo wave is pretty dead right now and doesn’t amp up until mid phase 7 so we are kind of flying blind right now in terms of tropical forcing with ambiguous conflicting signals. There is convection both in the central pac and maritime continent sending mixed signals. This was a long winded way of saying I don’t have a freaking clue what happens during this volatile transitional period. I feel confident the next 5 days are crap. I feel confident by day 15 we see a good pattern emerge. I have absolutely no confidence in anything between day 6-14. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Worrying and discussing are two different things. I felt most of the comments were pretty hopeful and level headed regarding the long range. Right. I'm just saying in general that's my perspective on the D10+ outlook for the casual reader, not saying people here are worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Right. I'm just saying in general that's my perspective on the D10+ outlook for the casual reader, not saying people here are worrying. I get it. Sometimes someone will say “the gfs looks like crap” and some interpret that as it’s going to be crap. Those are two different things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wrt Furtado keep in mind if you drill down too specific you become susceptible to limited data set and anomalies skewing results. Plus the more specific you make the analog the more chance it’s wrong because one little thing is off. How many examples of strong phase 8 in a weak nino after a sswe can there possibly be? And it’s racong towards 1 anyways so what does 1 do? Is it just delayed 5 days? What about once it’s past midway through 8? He said 7/8. 6/7 is totally Different from 7/8 for instance. I’m not dismissing his research but these are all pertinent questions we don’t have answers too. For now I’ll table that in the back of my mind but I can’t do much with it without more info. Of course, just attempting to bring both pros and cons into view. I still feel optimistic, but like all of us frustrated a bit. Always good to dwell into new insights. But, phase 8 and 1 sound great to me. That SOI should tank soon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 i think showmenosnow is going to like the EPS better. Seems like the EPO is more north and poleward....the SE ridge is a bit flatter. Maybe its just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: What happened to the NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: That’s an interesting look. Atrocious AO/NAO...EPO centered west of ideal...but floods NAM with cold and overwhelms the pattern. Ok we can work with that. It’s not a normal way to do it but it seems we are finding ways to snow in unusual ways lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: What happened to the NAO? Lol same thing that has all winter. When mjo gets into 8/1/2 and we see the response then we might finally get a legit NAO period. But it’s been a ghost the rest of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s an interesting look. Atrocious AO/NAO...EPO centered west of ideal...but floods NAM with cold and overwhelms the pattern. Ok we can work with that. It’s not a normal way to do it but it seems we are finding ways to snow in unusual ways lately. @psuhoffman Is that a progged - 4 SD - EPO in the long range ? Wonder too if we morph into a -NAO late Feb. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Lol same thing that has all winter. When mjo gets into 8/1/2 and we see the response then we might finally get a legit NAO period. But it’s been a ghost the rest of the time. it shows up later in the run like it has for the past 3 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 EPS isn't a good model guys.. no chance it doesn't verify as -PNA at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That’s an interesting look. Atrocious AO/NAO...EPO centered west of ideal...but floods NAM with cold and overwhelms the pattern. Ok we can work with that. It’s not a normal way to do it but it seems we are finding ways to snow in unusual ways lately. I'd take the gfs NAO and 50/50 and the EURO's EPO/building +PNA. Right? Still trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol same thing that has all winter. When mjo gets into 8/1/2 and we see the response then we might finally get a legit NAO period. But it’s been a ghost the rest of the time. Wonder what HM will say now. This was an interesting reply to Anthony Replying to @antmasiello Hoping for change as it has been a grim let down winter so far, but confidence low. Atlantic sector has refused to create anything other than a mid Atlantic block and while composites may suggest otherwise in reality it has been + NAO throughout. And this is with good signals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: What happened to the NAO? What do you think happened to it? It is the ultimate unicorn anymore and makes me wonder if it's even possible to go negative for an extended period in winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: EPS isn't a good model guys.. no chance it doesn't verify as -PNA at this point. What? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Pretty good signal on the eps for something frozen in the D7-10. A lot of west tracks w/ cad and op style solutions and even a hand full of coastals. Some amped up west solutions that rain on us but the majority keep us in the game. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 27 minutes ago, Ji said: i think showmenosnow is going to like the EPS better. Seems like the EPO is more north and poleward....the SE ridge is a bit flatter. Maybe its just noise Kind of a draw. Better extension towards the pole with the EPO as you said but it also shifted a little westward. I did think the pressure anomalies indicated less of a NS dump into the SW which is a good thing. The N-Atlantic is another issue. As I mentioned this morning the one thing I wanted to see is that we had at least enough blocking to keep the lower pressures locked in the general 50/50 region. This would work for us even with weak blocking. The last thing I wanted to see is a migration of them to east of Greenland. And this is what we are starting to see them do on the latest run. That will not work for us with weak blocking. But one run and I did expect the EPS to waffle around with those features anyway so I will only become concerned if this becomes a common theme on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soonWhy? Is that because your from nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon Tough luck, @psuhoffman - turns out you’ve had enough this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon Keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon Remain vigilant up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I think mid Atlantic is done with it’s snow this year. I think New Jersey and up to Boston gets hit hard soon Care to elaborate on why you think this? Or are you just blowing smoke out your a**? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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