showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: In fairness to PSU though it did show improvements it still looked like absolute crap. I was just trying to polish up an turd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: Just happened to be around the computer to follow the GEFS and nothing more. Until it shows some consistency for more then a couple of runs I will be leaning heavily on the EPS. I'm with you. Ironically tho has anyone else noticed over the past few weeks that the FV3 OP has been more consistent than the gefs? Dont have verification stats just noting there have seemed to be fewer flips and flops from run to run. Maybe that model will be good for something after all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm with you. Ironically tho has anyone else noticed over the past few weeks that the FV3 OP has been more consistent than the gefs? Dont have verification stats just noting there have seemed to be fewer flips and flops from run to run. Maybe that model will be good for something after all? I have noticed that there is less flopping around on the FV3 but as far as verification in the mid and longer ranges I really have no idea. Don't pay much attention nor give weight to op runs outside of 7 days where I pretty much rely on the ensembles. It does seem though, from what I have seen. is that in the shorter ranges it might be a better model but again that is just perception with no verification scores to back it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm with you. Ironically tho has anyone else noticed over the past few weeks that the FV3 OP has been more consistent than the gefs? Dont have verification stats just noting there have seemed to be fewer flips and flops from run to run. Maybe that model will be good for something after all? I thought the FV3 did a good job with the 12/9 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 Euro gonna snow people 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 40 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: FWIW, 12z FV3 still has the winter storm on 2/12/19! so does the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Interesting evolution on the GEFS. Went to total crap after day ten just to morph into a northern based +PNA/EPO combo over-cutting a -PNA in the south at the end of the run. Throw in the NAO and 50/50 combo as well and I would take that look any day of the week. eta: Now where have we heard the phrase, 'Just two weeks away'? 39 minutes ago, frd said: I really am at witts end here. When the MJO arrives at phase 8 and 1 the long standing composites show Greenland blocking and a trough in the East. But, here we see something totally different. And to make matters worse the Poles are getting less blocky and we are losing the -AO rapidly . Plus, negative changes over Siberia as well. Ok that’s new...and maybe why the guidance is not responding until the mjo is practically into phase 1. But I’ve not seen or heard anything so far about that until now. Oddly it seems the sswe has done nothing for us and might be hurting. Lol. Another confusing thing is how some Mets are talking about the nino like it’s a bad thing. This isn’t a strong nino like 73/98/16 that overwhelms with warmth. So not sure why several times I’ve hear the “nino” blames for the warmth and SE ridge. Neither is a typical weak to moderate nino feature. As for Furtado’s claim about the weak strat and mjo phase 8 can’t add anything. Haven’t seen anything about that until now. But that would be frustrating if we have to wait for phase 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok that’s new...and maybe why the guidance is not responding until the mjo is practically into phase 1. But I’ve not seen or heard anything so far about that until now. Oddly it seems the sswe has done nothing for us and might be hurting. Lol. Another confusing thing is how some Mets are talking about the nino like it’s a bad thing. This isn’t a strong nino like 73/98/16 that overwhelms with warmth. So not sure why several times I’ve hear the “nino” blames for the warmth and SE ridge. Neither is a typical weak to moderate nino feature. As for Furtado’s claim about the weak strat and mjo phase 8 can’t add anything. Haven’t seen anything about that until now. But that would be frustrating if we have to wait for phase 1. Jason admits further in that thread it is contrary to what you would normally look for. As for Nino, I have only heard that the Nino is dead, or weak, or absent - As for the SSWE no one really knows right. Every pro I have read to try to learn more has been proven incorrect and that goes universally for everyone we respect and use as support and guideance here , that means Earthlight, Isotherm , HM, DT, Allen Huffman , Don S. , Benchmark. Whatever the deal everyone so far at least has not done well. Ray got December OK, And some got the progression correct, CWG and a good temo forecast for Jan but Feb looks like it will be a huge challenge for them and everyone. What should have gone into a great and long duration pattern has fizzled and never materialized in real time. Regardless the DC outcomes for Jan. As for the SSWE I hate them. But whether it was that, or the Nino failure or the damn volacanoes erupting I have no idea . All I know was I told my son a while ago prepare for a lot of snow days and so far just one late openning. Its great there were some cold days and it snowed at 12 degrees but the promise that was foretold so far has not happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok that’s new...and maybe why the guidance is not responding until the mjo is practically into phase 1. But I’ve not seen or heard anything so far about that until now. Oddly it seems the sswe has done nothing for us and might be hurting. Lol. Another confusing thing is how some Mets are talking about the nino like it’s a bad thing. This isn’t a strong nino like 73/98/16 that overwhelms with warmth. So not sure why several times I’ve hear the “nino” blames for the warmth and SE ridge. Neither is a typical weak to moderate nino feature. As for Furtado’s claim about the weak strat and mjo phase 8 can’t add anything. Haven’t seen anything about that until now. But that would be frustrating if we have to wait for phase 1. lol..ill take my phase 8 chances. Maybe MJO phase 8 also promotes a 50/50 low. Isotherm said Phase 7 in El Nino years in February were good....too much information and nobody knows nothing. Just enjoy your snow next week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Honestly, there's no point worrying what a D10-15 forecast looks like since it changes on a dime this winter. If the MJO forecast is right and we're in Phase 8 soon, I'll roll the dice there. We have a trackable threat inside 10 days staring at us on the Euro....seems we should be paying attention to that IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Honestly, there's no point worrying what a D10-15 forecast looks like since it changes on a dime this winter. If the MJO forecast is right and we're in Phase 8 soon, I'll roll the dice there. We have a trackable threat inside 10 days staring at us on the Euro....seems we should be paying attention to that IMO. we are way to worried about D11-15....FV3 and Euro have cold and storm just a week away. What is wrong with us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 LOL euro is cold from 108-240 during prime of snow season and we are worried about D11-15(which i am sure will look alot better than it does now) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: lol..ill take my phase 8 chances. Maybe MJO phase 8 also promotes a 50/50 low. Isotherm said Phase 7 in El Nino years in February were good....too much information and nobody knows nothing. Just enjoy your snow next week I agree. You are slowly becoming a changed person in these threads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 In euro we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Despite the crap look on the GEFS through most of the extended it still is seeing something. One of the better looking means this year... And some heavy hitters showing up on the members. Take it for whatever it is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Definitely has that look of North and West though, which is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: we are way to worried about D11-15....FV3 and Euro have cold and storm just a week away. What is wrong with us? Unicorns are interesting creatures....they often distract from what is right in front of the eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: I agree. You are slowly becoming a changed person in these threads. someone has to run the asylum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: LOL euro is cold from 108-240 during prime of snow season and we are worried about D11-15(which i am sure will look alot better than it does now) It’s two different conversations AND the gefs wasn’t too thrilled with that 6-10 period. That was what we were analyzing. Last nights eps wasn’t too thrilled either. Fv3 and euro op obviously like it. We will see. I poo pood the period then the euro says let it snow. I’ll be wrong with snow over right as rain any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Despite the crap look on the GEFS through most of the extended it still is seeing something. One of the better looking means this year... And some heavy hitters showing up on the members. Take it for whatever it is worth. Oh wow that's a hell of a means snow map. Dammit why did u have to go and post that? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: In euro we trust Maybe it finally got a whiff of the mjo/soi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: we are way to worried about D11-15....FV3 and Euro have cold and storm just a week away. What is wrong with us? Why would anyone is this thread care about snow? We only care about patterns that can make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: I agree. You are slowly becoming a changed person in these threads. I’ve always liked Ji though. His act can be over the top sometimes but he is funny and when he wants to be serious makes great contributions. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Maybe it finally got a whiff of the mjo/soi As long as it doesnt get a whiff of what my chocolate lab is letting out....might head right into the crapper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: Honestly, there's no point worrying what a D10-15 forecast looks like since it changes on a dime this winter. If the MJO forecast is right and we're in Phase 8 soon, I'll roll the dice there. We have a trackable threat inside 10 days staring at us on the Euro....seems we should be paying attention to that IMO. That's where I'm at. Barely looked at models over the weekend until just before the superbowl and just a quick scan today. One thing that's blatantly obvious is the level of uncertainty d7+. You guys have been tracking run over run changes. I took some days off and it's like night and day in the long range. +AO now? lol. Will it be a -AO in 2 more days? Maybe. I decided to just let this week ride and not get hung up on anything long range. Proving to be a good decision because as the discussion topics change daily here, one thing that hasn't changed is we still don't really know what may or may not happen in a week. I'll stick with my hunch and say it's probably going to snow here not too far down the road. I won't speculate on how it happens because I really don't know and neither do the models. Mixed/borderline event still seems most likely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’ve always liked Ji though. His act can be over the top sometimes but he is funny and when he wants to be serious makes great contributions. I like him too even when he goes over the top. I was one of his first followers on his FB site. I just wanted to acknowledge the reasonable Ji is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, frd said: Jason admits further in that thread it is contrary to what you would normally look for. As for Nino, I have only heard that the Nino is dead, or weak, or absent - As for the SSWE no one really knows right. Every pro I have read to try to learn more has been proven incorrect and that goes universally for everyone we respect and use as support and guideance here , that means Earthlight, Isotherm , HM, DT, Allen Huffman , Don S. , Benchmark. Whatever the deal everyone so far at least has not done well. Ray got December OK, And some got the progression correct, CWG and a good temo forecast for Jan but Feb looks like it will be a huge challenge for them and everyone. What should have gone into a great and long duration pattern has fizzled and never materialized in real time. Regardless the DC outcomes for Jan. As for the SSWE I hate them. But whether it was that, or the Nino failure or the damn volacanoes erupting I have no idea . All I know was I told my son a while ago prepare for a lot of snow days and so far just one late openning. Its great there were some cold days and it snowed at 12 degrees but the promise that was foretold so far has not happened. Wrt Furtado keep in mind if you drill down too specific you become susceptible to limited data set and anomalies skewing results. Plus the more specific you make the analog the more chance it’s wrong because one little thing is off. How many examples of strong phase 8 in a weak nino after a sswe can there possibly be? And it’s racong towards 1 anyways so what does 1 do? Is it just delayed 5 days? What about once it’s past midway through 8? He said 7/8. 6/7 is totally Different from 7/8 for instance. I’m not dismissing his research but these are all pertinent questions we don’t have answers too. For now I’ll table that in the back of my mind but I can’t do much with it without more info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 384hr GFS still looks really good, I love the 50/50 low signal. Maybe we can squeeze in a historic period late Feb/early March? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Definitely has that look of North and West though, which is concerning. Yeah, the coming pattern from Feb8 - Feb 15 favors areas north of the cities. Doesn’t mean we can’t cash in on a threat, it just means that areas north of the Md/pa border look to do very well att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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