psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It does but verbatim we would only briefly be looking at normal/slightly above temps then the ridge shifts east again by D15. Yea I wasn’t trying to imply the eps was bad..but it was close. I have a feeling of the mjo gets to 8 in reality the trough axis shifts east some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Probably yeah. I was looking at 850 mb temps. Either way the basic idea is the same. We hug the mutha fukin EPS. Keep in mind a slight positive 850 anomaly is still cold enough since average 850 this time of year is well below 0. We are below 0c 850 from day 9 on. It gets close around day 13 then sinks south again. It was a good run. I was just saying I think the se ridge won’t be an issue if we get phase 8. That might not be a good thing. Shift the too Far East and it’s suppression depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 46 minutes ago, Ji said: actualy temps are still below normal per the EPS D11 to D15 per EPS..so maybe we are in the battlezone of alot of precip:) The only fly in that ointment is slightly below normal won’t cut it in mid Feb for a lot of us. Think climo is mid 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 The only fly in that ointment is slightly below normal won’t cut it in mid Feb for a lot of us. Think climo is mid 40s. Yea take 10 degrees off during a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The only fly in that ointment is slightly below normal won’t cut it in mid Feb for a lot of us. Think climo is mid 40s. Slightly below is fine if we get a system to run under us. That mean high is skewed by sunny days and disagreement on timing of precip at range. 40 degrees and sunny with a dp of 23 can become 30 and snowing fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The only fly in that ointment is slightly below normal won’t cut it in mid Feb for a lot of us. Think climo is mid 40s. Yea take 10 degrees off during a storm Just now, psuhoffman said: Slightly below is fine if we get a system to run under us. That mean high is skewed by sunny days and disagreement on timing of precip at range. 40 degrees and sunny with a dp of 23 can become 30 and snowing fast. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Keep in mind a slight positive 850 anomaly is still cold enough since average 850 this time of year is well below 0. We are below 0c 850 from day 9 on. It gets close around day 13 then sinks south again. It was a good run. I was just saying I think the se ridge won’t be an issue if we get phase 8. That might not be a good thing. Shift the too Far East and it’s suppression depression. Eh, it that happens, so be it. That is the least of my concerns at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Check this out on the 18z GFS, +15c temp bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Eh, it that happens, so be it. That is the least of my concerns at this point. Lol I’m not actually worried about that. But we need to be close to the gradient in that pattern or it’s cold and dry. The euro is a little too close. Shift it east a bit and reality might be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Nothing to see on the EPS winter weather wise for a week. The following week(around the 12th) there is a pretty good signal for something though. Snowfall mean ticks up decently during that time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Man today was nice. Loved the warmer weather. Good analysis in here already so nothing to add. Looks like things are going as I was expecting so far. It's going to be a busy month. Get your sleep and enjoy the weather this week. One thing I really like on guidance is fairly tight spacing on shortwaves coming off the Pac. If the flow lines up right we (or anybody) on the east coast could get 2 or more storms in succession. I hope everyone gets hit from the SE to NNE. Would put out a lot of dumpster fires on Amwx. Lol. Our sub is the most level headed. That's not all that common. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 Snowfall mean may be up from 00 UT but signal is still noisy. Over a 15-day period, the percent of EPS ensembles giving DC-area (northern MD) 3" of snow is 42(52%) for the latest run, which is more than the previous run 26 (42%) but the same as 24-hours ago 46 (54%). The percent of ensembles giving DC and the northern MD folks a 6" snow is the same as the previous run (~20%) but less than 24 hours ago (~30%). For the last several weeks there have been numerous "threats" in the 10-15 day range that evaporate inside of 10 days ...fortunately a few have re-appeared in the operational model around day 7 with considerable ensemble support. Will be interesting to see if that pattern continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Lol, the 18z FV3 has a 68 hour snowstorm at the end of its run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 FV-3 is my go to model. What a run especially , I know , two weeks out when we finally get a lp to get south of us. Looked like 30 hours of frozen, mostly snow. Didn't check if there was good blocking but the precip just came coming and coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Lol, the 18z FV3 has a 68 hour snowstorm at the end of its run. I didn't add up the frames but it was probably closer to 68 than 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: FV-3 is my go to model. What a run especially , I know , two weeks out when we finally get a lp to get south of us. Looked like 30 hours of frozen, mostly snow. Didn't check if there was good blocking but the precip just came coming and coming. Just a tad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Fv3 is the new Canadian. Definitely the go to for fantasy snowstorms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I didn't add up the frames but it was probably closer to 68 than 30. PD 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: PD 4? Didn't know we already had PD 3...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: FV-3 is my go to model. What a run especially , I know , two weeks out when we finally get a lp to get south of us. Looked like 30 hours of frozen, mostly snow. Didn't check if there was good blocking but the precip just came coming and coming. If u extrapolate beyond that there is another punch coming a day or so later too lol. Nothing like a fantasy 300hr+ storm and extrapolating beyond 384 in what appears to be a prolific gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Lol, the 18z FV3 has a 68 hour snowstorm at the end of its run. Not 72? Pfft NEXT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Didn't know we already had PD 3...lol Ha. I feel like we reference it so much it happened. Sorry, PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ha. I feel like we reference it so much it happened. Sorry, PD3 Storm last so long it’s PD3 and 4. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 A rare AQI alert for tomorrow code orange. I remember having these all the time in the 80s and 90s https://www.mwcog.org/environment/planning-areas/air-quality/air-quality-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Bit of a bump up on the mean snowfall on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Bit of a bump up on the mean snowfall on the GEFS. Purples, yay!#$@!!!%#!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Dug into the ensembles this evening. Clear picture that our next chance is the 11-12th. Pretty good agreement with the type of progression on the gefs, geps, and eps. Looks like a west track CAD event if it works out here. I actually really like those because they aren't complicated. The tradeoff is mixed precip but these events are easier on the nerves because 50 or 100 or even 150 mile track shifts often don't make much of any difference. Models will often underestimate the staying power of midlevel cold if there's cold drain/northerly surface and midlevel flow as the low approaches. Insitu CAD on the other hand will often be overestimated but discussing these types of details 7+ days out is silly. Just something to keep an eye on if the threat becomes real. Tracking hp trends to our north is equally as important as watching low pressure to the south. If models are underestimating blocking or 50/50 influence then it's possible to get all snow. I doubt it though. We're at least 10 days away from a clean snowstorm pattern from what I'm seeing. Nice to see a return to a non shutout pattern inside of 10 days now. I'm not sure if we'll ever get the near perfect pattern we've been teased with all winter. It may not matter. Overall I really like what I'm seeing. All guidance shows a parade of high pressures moving mostly west to east to our north as we get into next weekend. That's very different from the EPO driven gradient/boundary patterns we've seen the last 4 years. Having a cold high to our west makes the win zone really narrow and ripe for rug pulls. Cold highs to the north allow a lot of wiggle room and is also easier to model further out in time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Looks solid. Probably a lot of mixed precip events but we’ll take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 If the 0z GEFS is even close to right Feb is toast through 384. I know we are tossing but man I hope the EPS is better. Unless I am reading it wrong 2m temps are AN through the entire run. All day every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If the 0z GEFS is even close to right Feb is toast through 384. I know we are tossing but man I hope the EPS is better. Unless I am reading it wrong 2m temps are AN through the entire run. All day every day. Sounds like a huge change for the worse from 18z based on what you said. If it shifts around that much from run to run, I’d see it as a red flag when it comes to its reliability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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