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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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19 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Honestly, there's no point worrying what a D10-15 forecast looks like since it changes on a dime this winter.  If the MJO forecast is right and we're in Phase 8 soon, I'll roll the dice there.  We have a trackable threat inside 10 days staring at us on the Euro....seems we should be paying attention to that IMO.  

Don't forget the FV3.

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20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Honestly, there's no point worrying what a D10-15 forecast looks like since it changes on a dime this winter.  If the MJO forecast is right and we're in Phase 8 soon, I'll roll the dice there.  We have a trackable threat inside 10 days staring at us on the Euro....seems we should be paying attention to that IMO.  

Worrying and discussing are two different things. I felt most of the comments were pretty hopeful and level headed regarding the long range. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Worrying and discussing are two different things. I felt most of the comments were pretty hopeful and level headed regarding the long range. 

do you know the lag between MJO phases and effects. If MJO goes into phase 8, do we immediately get into phase 8 effects? I assume so right?

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20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Despite the crap look on the GEFS through most of the extended it still is seeing something.

One of the better looking means this year...

gefssnowmeans.gif.9464425221b7d1e56105c3ad89669d39.gif

And some heavy hitters showing up on the members.

gefssnowmembers.gif.88bde71d8690e7345005cbbd7dcf7294.gif

Take it for whatever it is worth.

Extreme variance. There are some absolute crazy ridge solutions skewing means. On top of that there are some members that snow with an h5 mean that’s awful. It happens. Feb 97 was such an event. If you saw a 5 day h5 mean for that week there is no way you would expect a 4-8” snowstorm snuck in there. That can happen if you have a 50/50 getting a high stuck over a ridge. You end up with low level cold pressing and or stuck in the ridge. The overall takeaway though is extreme variance and models struggling mightily with the pattern. 

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15 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you know the lag between MJO phases and effects. If MJO goes into phase 8, do we immediately get into phase 8 effects? I assume so right?

I've tested this before, the best correlation is at Day+0. 

Maybe you are asking if it is strong in previous phases then still above 1.0 but weakening on some kind of cosine... I think it's just a weak phase 8 signal. 

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. Barely looked at models over the weekend until just before the superbowl and just a quick scan today. One thing that's blatantly obvious is the level of uncertainty d7+. You guys have been tracking run over run changes. I took some days off and it's like night and day in the long range. +AO now? lol. Will it be a -AO in 2 more days? Maybe. 

I decided to just let this week ride and not get hung up on anything long range. Proving to be a good decision because as the discussion topics change daily here, one thing that hasn't changed is we still don't really know what may or may not happen in a week. I'll stick with my hunch and say it's probably going to snow here not too far down the road. I won't speculate on how it happens because I really don't know and neither do the models. Mixed/borderline event still seems most likely. 

Totally with you there especially if a MJO trip to Phase 8 in historically our snowiest month happens.  This winter will go as one of (if not the worst) for LR forecasting.  Will be a fascinating post-winter analysis for someone (much smarter than me) to do.  

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you know the lag between MJO phases and effects. If MJO goes into phase 8, do we immediately get into phase 8 effects? I assume so right?

There was a study published in monthly weather review last April by Dr Gina Henderson that suggests the average extratropical atmospheric response to the mjo in the northern hemisphere is 7 days. Assuming somewhere mid strong phase 7 starts to have positive effects and guidance says we get there in 6 days (euro) or 9 days (gefs) that would put the response near the end of the ensembles which is when the gefs started to show a shift. That doesn’t mean the euro can’t be right about day 6-10. The mjo wave is pretty dead right now and doesn’t amp up until mid phase 7 so we are kind of flying blind right now in terms of tropical forcing with ambiguous conflicting signals. There is convection both in the central pac and maritime continent sending mixed signals. This was a long winded way of saying I don’t have a freaking clue what happens during this volatile transitional period. I feel confident the next 5 days are crap. I feel confident by day 15 we see a good pattern emerge. I have absolutely no confidence in anything between day 6-14. 

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Just now, nj2va said:

Right.  I'm just saying in general that's my perspective on the D10+ outlook for the casual reader, not saying people here are worrying.  

I get it. Sometimes someone will say “the gfs looks like crap” and some interpret that as it’s going to be crap. Those are two different things. 

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wrt Furtado keep in mind if you drill down too specific you become susceptible to limited data set and anomalies skewing results. Plus the more specific you make the analog the more chance it’s wrong because one little thing is off.

How many examples of strong phase 8 in a weak nino after a sswe can there possibly be?  And it’s racong towards 1 anyways so what does 1 do?  Is it just delayed 5 days?  What about once it’s past midway through 8?  He said 7/8. 6/7 is totally Different from 7/8 for instance. I’m not dismissing his research but these are all pertinent questions we don’t have answers too. 

For now I’ll table that in the back of my mind but I can’t do much with it without more info. 

Of course, just attempting to bring both pros and cons into view. I still feel optimistic, but like all of us frustrated a bit. Always good to dwell into new insights.  

But, phase 8 and 1 sound great to me. That SOI should tank soon as well. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s an interesting look. Atrocious AO/NAO...EPO centered west of ideal...but floods NAM with cold and overwhelms the pattern. Ok we can work with that. It’s not a normal way to do it but it seems we are finding ways to snow in unusual ways lately. 

@psuhoffman  Is that a progged - 4 SD - EPO in the long range ?   

 

Wonder too if we morph into a -NAO late Feb. ? 

 

 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Lol same thing that has all winter. When mjo gets into 8/1/2 and we see the response then we might finally get a legit NAO period. But it’s been a ghost the rest of the time. 

it shows up later in the run like it has for the past 3 years

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s an interesting look. Atrocious AO/NAO...EPO centered west of ideal...but floods NAM with cold and overwhelms the pattern. Ok we can work with that. It’s not a normal way to do it but it seems we are finding ways to snow in unusual ways lately. 

I'd take the gfs NAO and 50/50 and the EURO's EPO/building +PNA. Right? Still trying to learn. :) 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol same thing that has all winter. When mjo gets into 8/1/2 and we see the response then we might finally get a legit NAO period. But it’s been a ghost the rest of the time. 

Wonder what HM will say now.

This was an interesting reply to Anthony 

 

Replying to @antmasiello

Hoping for change as it has been a grim let down winter so far, but confidence low. Atlantic sector has refused to create anything other than a mid Atlantic block and while composites may suggest otherwise in reality it has been + NAO throughout. And this is with good signals!

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think showmenosnow is going to like the EPS better. Seems like the EPO is more north and poleward....the SE ridge is a bit flatter. Maybe its just noise

Kind of a draw. Better extension towards the pole with the EPO as you said but it also shifted a little westward. I did think the pressure anomalies indicated less of a NS dump into the SW which is a good thing. The N-Atlantic is another issue. As I mentioned this morning the one thing I wanted to see is that we had at least enough blocking to keep the lower pressures locked in the general 50/50 region. This would work for us even with weak blocking. The last thing I wanted to see is a migration of them to east of Greenland. And this is what we are starting to see them do on the latest run. That will not work for us with weak blocking. But one run and I did expect the EPS to waffle around with those features anyway so I will only become concerned if this becomes a common theme on future runs.

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