Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

[PackGrad05]

This will be a really interesting event to watch.  Quick hitting front.  I'm not really expecting to see any snow down in southern wake...  maybe a few flakes mixed in toward the end of the precip shield.  

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

This will be a really interesting event to watch.  Quick hitting front.  I'm not really expecting to see any snow down in southern wake...  maybe a few flakes mixed in toward the end of the precip shield.  

If we end up with not one flake of snow from this, I wouldn't be surprised or upset (so very low expectations).

But this is a situation that can produce a surprise event. Just a little more development with .1-.2 more qpf could make this eventful. We're just going to have to wait to see how the precip develops as it crosses the mountains.

[eyewall]

Central NC people be warned. This is cold air chasing the moisture. We all know how that usually works out.

 

[FallsLake]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Central NC people be warned. This is cold air chasing the moisture. We all know how that usually works out.

 

No expectations......nothing to lose.  

[wncsnow]

Here is the new NAM "snowfall" 

[LithiaWx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Here is the new NAM "snowfall" 

Meh I’ll take what I can get if it’s only an inch so be it.  From an Atlanta perspective. 

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Here is the new NAM "snowfall" 

Again, it looks convective; whereas there could be folks that can get surprise accumulations but somebody 10 miles from them get nothing. **just like summertime

[Turner Team]

Are the models backing off of the snowfall because the wave that's developing on the front is delaying the CAA?

[Nick Esasky]

FFC reduced their totals slightly this morning for Atlanta proper.

 

[BK Rambler]

For ATL area the 06Z NAM as well as the 3k NAM were bone dry for snow accumulations, the latest 12Z runs show some accumulation with the NAM a lot more aggressive (1-2" in metro) than the 3k (+ 1/2").  Kuchera ratios on all models are lower than 10:1 and must be considering a good bit of rain mix.

[kayman]

15 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said:

FFC reduced their totals slightly this morning for Atlanta proper.

 

It's likely to be wrong as FFC is always.  I don't trust their forecasts.

[mackerel_sky]

GFS looks a lot better! Heard ATL schools were closed tomorrow!? Little gun shy, and not wanting snowjam 3!

[Rankin5150]

3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS looks a lot better! Heard ATL schools were closed tomorrow!? Little gun shy, and not wanting snowjam 3!

A lot better for ATL or overall? Thanks 

[calculus1]

12Z GFS through hour 48:

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS looks a lot better! Heard ATL schools were closed tomorrow!? Little gun shy, and not wanting snowjam 3!

I see no announcement on twitter of it officially.  That would seem to be an early trigger.  Given how late in the year it is relatively though schools tend to be more willing to make a closing call early.  If it is in December they are often wary because if it’s a bad winter, especially if it’s a southern location where roads may stay bad for days with each storm you don’t want to be in school til June 

[Nick Esasky]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I see no announcement on twitter of it officially.  That would seem to be an early trigger.  Given how late in the year it is relatively though schools tend to be more willing to make a closing call early.  If it is in December they are often wary because if it’s a bad winter, especially if it’s a southern location where roads may stay bad for days with each storm you don’t want to be in school til June 

Atlanta Public School texts have gone out to parents that school is cancelled tomorrow.  Looks like their twitter feed has been updated.  Like you said, they have a couple days built into the schedule, so might as well use it if there is uncertainty.  They would much prefer the embarrassment from cancelling for a rain storm than the pain of having school get out when roads are already in bad shape.

 

 

[PackGrad05]

SREF mean increased for RDU...but QPF is still only 1 or 2 tenths..  very light.  

[CaryWx]

20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

SREF mean increased for RDU...but QPF is still only 1 or 2 tenths..  very light.  

Flake catching on the tongue?

[BornAgain13]

Kinda weird that the GFS, FV3 and EURO show 1-3" near my location but the short range models dont show anything... its usually the opposite... what are the globals seeing that the short range models aren't? 

[PackGrad05]

I would put a lot more weight on the short-range high-res models at this point than globals.  

[NCSNOW]

Noon update. I see Nam above. Here's the others; Expect zilch and be happily surprised if you catch a quick convective thump.

 

 

[NCSNOW]

FV3

 

[NCSNOW]

RDPS

[NCSNOW]

[NCSNOW]

WRF

[NCSNOW]

Long range EPS: for all you state fans that like RED, EPS has your favorite color Day 5-10. However as you can see day 10, the Blues are advancing. So maybe this afternoon at hr 240 its made more progress east. We'll see. Its a torch at at 850s though during this time , so wear your sunglasses when viewing lol.

 

[jjwxman]

This is a classic case of cold air chasing moisture I'm afraid... and we all know how that works out east of the Apps. If we see snow it'll be a big win, no matter the amounts.

[HKY_WX]

I think the idea of this being more isolated banding type snow squalls makes sense, given the setup w/ a weak disturbance rotating around a strong Arctic front. You don't see a PV Lobe this strong drop into the Great Lakes. It's a highly anomalous event. So I could definitely see some surprises (from a localized perspective).

 

Example - 1 city get's 2 inches of snow while nothing falls 10 mins down the road.

[snowbird1230]

You can basically see the precipitation fizzling out on the old intellicast radar as it enters Tennessee

[mackerel_sky]

2 hours ago, Rankin5150 said:

A lot better for ATL or overall? Thanks 

Yes, we really don’t have a chance, outside of flurries, IMO! If we could get the cold front to fly through and then a low form on it, we would do better, but that’s about a 1% chance as of now. The mountains do well regardless, a lot of 2-4” up there. Thinking of chasing up there tomorrow.