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Hybrid Clipper Event 1/27-1/29

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


There’s probably going be be 2-3 days for sure next week that most schools are cancelled.


.

They would have cancelled school for this when I was going, let alone nowadays.  

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

18z RGEM close to ORD at 48hr.


.

Hmmm.  Relatively speaking, not bad with how things have been trending.  

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1 hour ago, fluoronium said:

I remember a storm in 2003 where there were severe thunderstorm warnings issued in central IL for a line of thunderstorms/heavy snow associated with a strong cold front. Is there any possibility of that kind of event with a setup like this for those south of the low? This storm system looks to take a similar path to the 2003 storm, and the forecast models are picking up on a line of precip associated with the cold front.

line.thumb.png.05289629a23ea2082db724598b0cbbed.png

I would love to see something like that again. We had a short burst of whiteout conditions with tons of lightning, and the wind blew the snow in my yard into snow rollers. Some info on the 2003 storm can be found here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008WAF2007103.1

I noticed 3km nam is showing something similar to this. Strong band of snow with the cf. Could be intense with strong winds

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Have to hand it to GRR... at least they issued a WSW for a third of the CWA lol. Just don’t get their thinking. 

 

12z Euro continued to be a share the wealth for many. Will be interesting to see how long it holds out with the southern track. 

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LOT update

 

While Sunday will remain cold, with daytime highs in the teens,
temperatures should be on a warming trend Sunday night as
southern winds become gusty in advance of our next clipper system.
Unfortunately this warming will come at the cost of more moisture
and the development of snow over the area. This fast moving and
potent clipper system will be tracking somewhere right across far
northern IL around the WI stateline on Monday morning. It looks to
be ahead of the main surface low that northern IL and portions of
northwestern IN could see a period of heavy snow. Timing wise
this would be roughly be from mid-late Sunday evening through mid-
morning Monday. During this period strong isentropic upglide will
set up across the area as 35 to 50 kt winds develop on the 280
through 290 surfaces are run directly perpendicular to the
isobars. This, in addition with increasing large scale forcing
for ascent from the approaching mid-level impulse, should result
in good ascent supportive of snow development over the area. It
also appears that some periods of quiet heavy snow will also be
likely, especially across far northern IL Sunday night, this as
mid-level lapse rates look to steepen considerably (700-500 mb
lapse rates of 6.5C+ per KM) in response to the strong lower-level
warm air advection.

With all this in mind, in spite of the track of the low, we could
still end up with amounts exceeding 6+ inches over far northern
IL, with likely lesser amounts south of the watch. Again a
majority of this would fall overnight Sunday into early Monday
morning. During the morning Monday, a mid-level dry slot looks to
shift in over the area. Once this occurs, we will likely see the
precipitation eighter end, or switch over to some
drizzle/freezing drizzle. Surface temperatures may briefly warm
to, or just above freezing Monday morning, but this will be short
lived as cold air spills back across the area Monday afternoon.
There could be some lingering light snow Monday afternoon, but any
additional accumulations look to remain under an inch.

At this time we plan on holding with the winter storm watch for
the northern tier of counties. This may need to be upgraded to a
warning tonight. South of the watch, it appears snowfall amounts
will generally be in the 3 to 6 inch range down to around the I-80
corridor, A winter weather advisory may be needed south of the
current watch down towards the I-80 corridor. These areas could
need a winter weather advisory in the future. South of I-80 it
appears that snow amounts will fall off into the 1 to 3 inch
range.

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2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

GFS begins to bring the low through the IL/WI border at 42. Slightly south of 12z.

Not sure a buy that shift between 42 and 48.  Seems to pivot on a dime..it may keep sliding south a bit

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NWS Detroit AFD regarding forecasting problems. Not looking good for lower Michigan with that possible dry slot.

Quote
There are a couple of major issues that need further attention. The
first is the potential for a midlevel dry slot to lift into
Southeast Michigan during the afternoon hours and wreak havoc to the
rates. Additionally, the orientation of the dry slot could be
sufficient to impact the amount of snowfall for the entire west half
of the cwa, including the far north. The second item that is still
causing some heartburn is what will snow ratios be. First cut
guidance has been seemingly on the high side and questions from this
forecaster remain. Forecast soundings suggest what will be a narrow
zone intersecting the DGZ high up in the column, upwards of 10 kft
agl. While on the high side, it does match up well to bulk of ascent
that will be occuring up the frontal slope. Thus some mixed signal
for what snow ratios will be. Did use a compromise and generally
went with 14:1 for much of the event.

 

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Just now, Minnesota_storms said:

I finally get a Winter Storm Warning this season. Looking like 6-10'' of snow for me. :)

congrats.

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That squally looking line of precip along the strong cold front Monday looks pretty interesting on the 3km NAM.  Will be interesting to see if future runs continue to show that feature.  Curious to see if the HRRR shows it as well when it gets into range.  Would coincide with a pretty quick temp crash with the front.

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That squally looking line of precip along the strong cold front Monday looks pretty interesting on the 3km NAM.  Will be interesting to see if future runs continue to show that feature.  Curious to see if the HRRR shows it as well when it gets into range.  Would coincide with a pretty quick temp crash with the front.

Yea the lower res models aren't showing it well but it looks potent on 3km nam. Very sharp intense line. Probably could produce brief blizzard conditions. That would be a nice consolation prize for us further south who largely miss out

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8 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

With a track north of us, we'll be lucky to get half that.

The northern models are quickly diving the PV southward and phasing, causing the slp to curl northward.  EURO/UKIE are slower with that feature, and thus more favourable to us (although they've been inching north too).

I'd say 3-4" for us right now, and hope to god it doesn't trend any further north.

Doug Gillham of the The Weather Network tweeted 3 hours ago that he expects 4-8"

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1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea the lower res models aren't showing it well but it looks potent on 3km nam. Very sharp intense line. Probably could produce brief blizzard conditions. That would be a nice consolation prize for us further south who largely miss out

If that comes to fruition I woukd think that would qualify for the new Snow Squall Warnings. Although last I heard, NWS, at least locally, may not have the product ready until next month. I guess we’ll find out!

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That band of precip to the SE of the sfc low isn't along the cold front, it's along something else. Temps at the surface actually warm into the mid 30s behind it with upper 20s ahead of it. I think that feature being something particularly noteworthy is unlikely. 

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29 minutes ago, hlcater said:

That band of precip to the SE of the sfc low isn't along the cold front, it's along something else. Temps at the surface actually warm into the mid 30s behind it with upper 20s ahead of it. I think that feature being something particularly noteworthy is unlikely. 

The one I was mentioning is a second, narrower band of convective looking precip.  This was along the strong cold front/wind shift.  3km NAM btw.

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