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MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons


Bob Chill
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3 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Man nws is really going big. They are counting on something.. maybe snow cover.. evap cooling.. a quick front end thump.. maybe ice.. 

And they issue the warnings after the last night's guidance... They are all in..

Their dicusssion hints at changing or dropping some...but they haven’t done it yet. 

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Imho  GFS handled this storm very well. Always had  the more northern track and hasn't really wavered on that for several days. Fv3 also had it north.Euro had a more southern track up to about 2 days ago. Atleast far enough south to make things interesting for the northern part of the forum. Ukie was awful. 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Imho  GFS handled this storm very well. Always had  the more northern track and hasn't really wavered on that for several days. Fv3 also had it north.Euro had a more southern track up to about 2 days ago. Atleast far enough south to make things interesting for the northern part of the forum. Ukie was awful. 

I mentioned that this morning about the GFS, Chris.  It did a great job with this storm and never wavered from it's track even a week ago.  The GFS long range can be almost comical at times but when you get within 5-6 days of a specific event, it usually does a pretty good job. 

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12 minutes ago, Danajames said:

I mentioned that this morning about the GFS, Chris.  It did a great job with this storm and never wavered from it's track even a week ago.  The GFS long range can be almost comical at times but when you get within 5-6 days of a specific event, it usually does a pretty good job. 

Gfs actually was right for the wrong reasons. It started off warmer but the upper level pattern was handled much better by the euro and even the icon. The short range trend of shifting the mix/rain line NW made the gfs look better than it was. From a sensible wx standpoint the gfs looks like a rockstar. If you go back and compare upper level forecasts over time, the euro did the best in the mid range. Few will agree or care to agree though. 

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3 hours ago, Fasteddy said:

This is from our vacation house in WV (1900')..  That's looking towards Winchester..   I couldn't stay in MD for this storm and watch it rain.. At least I'll get a little bit of snow or more than likely, a nice ice storm..  :D

It looks like the view from several miles west of Berkeley Springs 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs actually was right for the wrong reasons. It started off warmer but the upper level pattern was handled much better by the euro and even the icon. The short range trend of shifting the mix/rain line NW made the gfs look better than it was. From a sensible wx standpoint the gfs looks like a rockstar. If you go back and compare upper level forecasts over time, the euro did the best in the mid range. Few will agree or care to agree though. 

The only model I have on my computer is the GFS.  I'd like to get the EURO but for some reason, can never find one that's similar to the GFS.  It's usually just 2-4 small maps but never like the ones I see on meteorologist blogs or videos.   In any rate, I think one of the reasons the GFS irritates mets or other people in general is because their long range projections are almost unusable.  But within a 5-7 day window, I think it does perform pretty well.  

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Low is currently in w TN and track appears to be something like CRW to 50n FDK to PHL to ISP to BOS. There may be some eastward jogs in that overall e.n.e. to n.e. track. So I would expect some interesting weather to develop later because this is not advecting warm air very efficiently and when heavier precip moves in over top, it could change phase in some parts of MD and far n VA, ne WV. Not saying snow from that, more like ice pellets or sleet. Eventually it will begin to draw in the high 50s and low 60s temps from se VA but I think a very sharp demarcation of air masses will develop overnight so that some counties of se MD will reach 60-65 and the I-95 will stay around 40-45, further north 33-38. This is when precip could get quite thundery. When the low center reaches NYC the arctic cold front will be rushing southeast and temps on Sunday will likely fall 20-30 deg in a few hours, from those variable numbers in the warm sector and frontal zone, to 10-15 F. Some bursts of moderate snow are possible with the passage of the arctic front, 0.1 to 0.3 inch forecast for the airports and 1.0 inch for some parts of nw MD. 

So for the northern half of the forum it won't be a simple case of warming up, raining, and turning colder. For the southern half it may play out like that more so. 

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21 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Low is currently in w TN and track appears to be something like CRW to 50n FDK to PHL to ISP to BOS. There may be some eastward jogs in that overall e.n.e. to n.e. track. So I would expect some interesting weather to develop later because this is not advecting warm air very efficiently and when heavier precip moves in over top, it could change phase in some parts of MD and far n VA, ne WV. Not saying snow from that, more like ice pellets or sleet. Eventually it will begin to draw in the high 50s and low 60s temps from se VA but I think a very sharp demarcation of air masses will develop overnight so that some counties of se MD will reach 60-65 and the I-95 will stay around 40-45, further north 33-38. This is when precip could get quite thundery. When the low center reaches NYC the arctic cold front will be rushing southeast and temps on Sunday will likely fall 20-30 deg in a few hours, from those variable numbers in the warm sector and frontal zone, to 10-15 F. Some bursts of moderate snow are possible with the passage of the arctic front, 0.1 to 0.3 inch forecast for the airports and 1.0 inch for some parts of nw MD. 

So for the northern half of the forum it won't be a simple case of warming up, raining, and turning colder. For the southern half it may play out like that more so. 

Another thing that an arctic front does that a typical cold front does not  is it squeezes out the moisture more than relying on residual moisture. I think thunder is probable and snow squalls and showers.

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