wxeyeNH Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: not sure you need to cut, other models are similar If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Pretty uniform qpf, North of the warm front........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3k is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The NAM has slowly been figuring it out over the past 24 hours. Last night's 00z and 06z backed off quite a bit on QPF up north but the 12z/18z/00z have now been going in the right direction. A couple more runs and the QPF will match the EURO. Yea but didn’t the euro blast a warn layer all the way into southern Vermont? Btw I’m up in Killington this weekend so I have a rooting interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? 50:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? GYX has snow to liquid ratio map on their website and they're going with 15:1 for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: If I take 1.6" at 15:1 that's 24". What is realistic ratios for areas in CNE/NNE in a storm like this? 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Pretty uniform qpf, North of the warm front........... Part of me thinks this QPF will trend north a bit given the other models, but then part of me also knows that the sharp QPF gradient is often where the fronto band likes to rot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6-12" Boston is the way to go. Going to be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Few hours of sleet into S NH on that NAM run. Probably gonna slash our 18" forecast to something like 8-12" front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Jimmy gon' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12-15:1 What are the winds going to be like? If they are strong enough, couldn’t that reduce ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: 6-12" Boston is the way to go. Going to be nasty. yeah, I'm sticking with 8-10 for here.. does not look like we will shift south much.. 8-10 sleet.. hopefully we can get something to pop next week and then that crazy stuff later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: 12-15:1 Yeah that's what I used for my forecast. 13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? The band location in NNE will be key. Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you. Other guidance though has it further north. But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game.... The trend has definitely been down over the last few runs. Pretty classic trend honestly, rushing out to big QPF then settling towards reality. Will was banging 1-1.5” days ago, and that’s still the best forecast for all/mostly snow zones I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM has pinging up to me for about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah that's what I used for my forecast. 13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? The band location in NNE will be key. Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you. Other guidance though has it further north. But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely. I don’t like to deviate too far from climo ratios until I see the 20:1 whites of its eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18z was juicier ...QPF seems to be going up last two cycles and 18 in SNH was always ummm ... bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: 18z was juicier ... and 18 in SNH was always ummm ... bullish juicier here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This'll be a bit of a bust for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m thinking 3-6/4-7 IMBY. Same for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Already disgusted with this so-called winter next winter incoming 2019-2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This'll be a bit of a bust for northern areas. Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I don’t like to deviate too far from climo ratios until I see the 20:1 whites of its eyes. Yup. And I do think someone could see some high ratio snow in this, most likely under any meso-band that forms. That's when you can get into 20" out 1" of liquid. But you could also get 12" of just old fashioned storm snow and it's pretty much the same effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Already disgusted with this so-called winter next winter incoming 2019-2020. snow might be hard to come by in NS with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM is like 32F here for 8 hours Sunday AM. I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH How far is SNH away from ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's what I used for my forecast. 13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? The band location in NNE will be key. Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you. Other guidance though has it further north. But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely. Yeah, I'm thinking those ranges as well, Also i'm expecting some tics back SE (We hope) We're getting close on some of these runs to getting H85 into the +2 + 4c zone for a 3 or so hr period, So that would cut into some totals with sleet if its not at the height of the storm where we may be able to wash that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: snow might be hard to come by in NS with this storm Not just this storm but the next few at least. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.