Tiktock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Tough one for me. I live ON the MA/NH border just north of Haverhill. A bit close to the coast, not quite far enough north to be guaranteed fluffly snow, not far enough south to be fully expecting a mushy mix. One run I'm in the sweet spot for 12+ the next I'm choking thinking sub 6"..... My area typically does pretty well just north of 495... My brain is saying 7-8" regardless...anyone in my close vicinity with expectations.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, LSC97wxnut said: Stuck watching Pete B. getting a tire fixed. He's calling just below that. 6-10 for metro Boston. 12+ is limited to north of 495. Reasonable too IMO. For the AEMATT folks, I’d go 6-12 inside 495 and 10-16” outside 495 N of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Meh... his reasoning is likely related to model experience and similar to what Will's been mentioning regarding latent heat flux into the ridge causing faux NW positions at 30 hours lead... We may yet see the 20 or 30 mile SE correction down the stretch here - not a definite... but not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: 14-18’’ in my warning. I love the optimism but man 14’’ is a high floor. Certainly one of more aggressive snow forecasts I've seen from NWS office anywhere I've lived in. They must be banking on high snow ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 For Jerry....to satisfy his RPM fetish now that we're getting inside 48h. Congrats on a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 gfs still blows chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: gfs still blows chunks You think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It’s going to blow chunks. Accept it and look for the improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For Jerry....to satisfy his RPM fetish now that we're getting inside 48h. Congrats on a foot. That's pretty much what I would draw up, right there. Similar enough to 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Eesh. In NYC until Monday all Sunday trains canceled already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This is actually pretty nice. Snow-to-liquid forecast from GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s going to blow chunks. Accept it and look for the improvements. Yeah...it got better...that's all you can ask for. It's going to be pure dogshit in the lower 2500 feet so people just need to understand that and ignore that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For Jerry....to satisfy his RPM fetish now that we're getting inside 48h. Congrats on a foot. After the GTG i am driving by to “treat “ his lawn #localminimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: That h85 of 1C-how thick? I mean if it’s a thin layer and high rates it can get washed out. The problem is that its about 2°C warmer at h800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: WOW! Harvey is BULLISH! 12-18" for the Merrimack Valley, kissing 128. 6-12" for Boston metro and interior SE MA. Ya...tickling 128....is that a trickle down or trickle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Not looking good for 84 corridor through CCT. Need euro to tick colder in mid levels to cut down the zr. I would do some nasty things to get mostly sleet out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not looking good for 84 corridor through CCT. Need euro to tick colder in mid levels to cut down the zr. I would do some nasty things to get mostly sleet out of this. Dude ur icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 maybe more.. 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The problem is that its about 2°C warmer at h800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We'll here's to hoping this is the farthest north in track these models get and then at 0Z tonight start going SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. You must have a hell of a lot of storage space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For Jerry....to satisfy his RPM fetish now that we're getting inside 48h. Congrats on a foot. Thanks Will! We take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Saved to the weenie folder with all of the other failed NAM images over the years. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Thanks Will! We take! Will knows he’s now obligated to post the hourly update each hour until tomorrow night now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Starting to think this goes over to zr after 4 to 6 inches of snow upper levels are really warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 You guys can ride the RPM, I like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I've been looking at the models all day to consider this zr versus ip battle. The line of freezing rain should be really, really slim. Considering that, and movement of the sleet line overall, I think any damage due to icing will be minimal, and very isolated. I think everyone pounds sleet. It has that skinny warm layer and then it's a complete freezer to the surface. No doubt should be majority sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Now that's some bizarre shit right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: You guys can ride the RPM, I like the RGEM All of these shorter term models are hammering NE MA down to BOS even. of course moreso places like Methuen and Wilmington etc. But I think we're seeing a fairly decent signal here of a lot what Will and other red taggers have flagged. This sleet line makes significant progress, but it sure looks like it hits an absolute wall near the pike. If we toss the global thermals, replace with meso thermals, pretty much exactly what some have laid out here in the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: I've been looking at the models all day to consider this zr versus ip battle. The line of freezing rain should be really, really slim. Considering that, and movement of the sleet line overall, I think any damage due to icing will be minimal, and very isolated. I think everyone pounds sleet. It has that skinny warm layer and then it's a complete freezer to the surface. No doubt should be majority sleet. Sleet is just useless. WPC has bullseye of 70> or greater shot at a foot from SW Vermont up to killington E to Squam lakes NH then S down east of Mt monadanock back west to SW VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You guys can ride the RPM, I like the RGEM Not buying this crap, especially all that subsidence in NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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