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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Tough one for me.  I live ON the MA/NH border just north of Haverhill.  A bit close to the coast, not quite far enough north to be guaranteed fluffly snow, not far enough south to be fully expecting a mushy mix.  One run I'm in the sweet spot for 12+ the next I'm choking thinking sub 6".....

My area typically does pretty well just north of 495...

My brain is saying 7-8" regardless...anyone in my close vicinity with expectations.?

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Meh... his reasoning is likely related to model experience and similar to what Will's been mentioning regarding latent heat flux into the ridge causing faux NW positions at 30 hours lead... 

We may yet see the 20 or 30 mile SE correction down the stretch here - 

not a definite... but not impossible

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5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

14-18’’ in my warning. I love the optimism but man 14’’ is a high floor. 

Certainly one of more aggressive snow forecasts I've seen from NWS office anywhere I've lived in. They must be banking on high snow ratio?

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s going to blow chunks. Accept

it and look for the improvements. 

Yeah...it got better...that's all you can ask for. It's going to be pure dogshit in the lower 2500 feet so people just need to understand that and ignore that aspect.

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I've been looking at the models all day to consider this zr versus ip battle.

The line of freezing rain should be really, really slim. Considering that, and movement of the sleet line overall, I think any damage due to icing will be minimal, and very isolated.

I think everyone pounds sleet. It has that skinny warm layer and then it's a complete freezer to the surface. No doubt should be majority sleet.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

You guys can ride the RPM, I like the RGEM ;) 

IMG_1946.thumb.PNG.5366fa9c1ae89ea32e5012db3886879f.PNG

All of these shorter term models are hammering NE MA down to BOS even. of course moreso places like Methuen and Wilmington etc. But I think we're seeing a fairly decent signal here of a lot what Will and other red taggers have flagged. This sleet line makes significant progress, but it sure looks like it hits an absolute wall near the pike. If we toss the global thermals, replace with meso thermals, pretty much exactly what some have laid out here in the past few days.

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

I've been looking at the models all day to consider this zr versus ip battle.

The line of freezing rain should be really, really slim. Considering that, and movement of the sleet line overall, I think any damage due to icing will be minimal, and very isolated.

I think everyone pounds sleet. It has that skinny warm layer and then it's a complete freezer to the surface. No doubt should be majority sleet.

Sleet is just useless. 

WPC has bullseye of 70> or greater shot at a foot from SW Vermont up to killington E to Squam lakes NH then S down east of Mt monadanock back west to SW VT 

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