40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Going in to today Bos was +3,5 for the month. And +2.6 for Dec. And as Eric Fisher pointed out there have been only 4 days since mid Jan last year that the temp has been under 30 for a high in Boston. It hasn't been exactly cold either. No one said that it was. But I don't see a connection between a +2.8F seasonal temp departure, and tomorrow nights major snow event. Call me crazy- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Models have temps near or below 0 midday Monday according to Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: We won't so it's a moot point. So your expertise as a keyboard warrior says. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Ray, What do the arrows represent? They just delineate between disparate forecast snowfall ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Where are you located? Methuen,Ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Let's keep the GW remarks out of the storm discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It’s been pretty chilly lately. Sea ice forming. Early month was a torch, it been steady chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Models have temps near or below 0 midday Monday according to Ryan Means nothing if it's not snowing. Just annoying cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thanks for the response. The last 2 months(60 days) have averaged 0-2F above normal, so I'll concede that my point was not more concise when I said "warm". I meant relative to climo. I agree that we are at peak climo for snow for the next 30 days so you'd think that kicks in at some point. I'm just not sure this year is behaving like your typical weak ENSO state To the last point, I'm talking track deviations of 20-30 miles at most wrt to snow pack influences. Probably not even measurable to the impacts of the pressing high. Yea, its fair to question how much we are availing of this weak el nino at the moment. We'll just have to revisit when all is said and done. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one said that it was. But I don't see a connection between a +2.8F seasonal temp departure, and tomorrow nights major snow event. Call me crazy- And where did I say there was a connection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Methuen,Ma. Oh. You stand to do good from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Let's keep the GW remarks out of the storm discussion. please. very distracting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: And where did I say there was a connection? You didn't. Bob implied it, which is whom my original reply that you quoted was aimed at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They just delineate between disparate forecast snowfall ranges. Ok. I was not sure if the arrow direction had any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You would not be mistaken with that feel - it is empirical over about the last four decades to be just that. I believe the top five snowiest winters of all time have been sprayed along the last 30 years and most winters have been above the 100 years mean in that range. Will is the stat king with seasonal snow variance so .. Will? At the risk of going too off topic. Here's the chart for ORH with a 15 moving average in there....you can see the biggest winters are recently, but you can also see the variance is a bit higher. Though to be fair, the 1960s are kind of unprecedented in their lack of variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Lava Rock said: Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were Next BOX update will settle everything down I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were And to think TWC had 3+ feet for part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Models have temps near or below 0 midday Monday according to Ryan I'll take the over on the Euro 2m temps. MEX is 14F at BDL. Maybe shave a few off of that for the anomalous low level cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, its fair to question how much we are availing of this weak el nino at the moment. We'll just have to revisit when all is said and done. Good post. Agreed. Keep doing what you're doing and I'll butt into the discussion every so often when I'm bored in my head and need some mental stimulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'll take the over on the Euro 2m temps. MEX is 14F at BDL. Maybe shave a few off of that for the anomalous low level cold? ECMWF is -25C at 925 on Monday midday here. That's pretty good. I bet we're in the single digits through the day. Maybe a midnight high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, wxextreme said: With this, here is the departures from normal snow totals: But NNE is having a great season though...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were You shouldn't have bought those amounts. I think 10-15 is a virtual lock though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: ECMWF is -25C at 925 on Monday midday here. That's pretty good. I bet we're in the single digits through the day. Maybe a midnight high too. Yeah...925 is pretty anomalous. There will be fresh pack upstream as well so little modification of the cold and any sun on Monday will be working against a high albedo. I'd probably lean with the midnight high there and the daytime peaking around 8-10F. BDL only has a little over a handful of days with highs under 5F on record though. Looks like 8F is the record from 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were shouldn't have bought any hype anyways. most on here were cautioning against such totals. regardless, classic Lava "meh-ing" a storm before it even gets underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were shouldn't have bought any hype anyways. most on here were cautioning against such totals. regardless, classic Lava "meh-ing" a storm before it even gets underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Ray, What do the arrows represent? Judging by the looks of the arrows, they represent Ray's limited skill in the Apple Preview app he uses to make the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: You shouldn't have bought those amounts. I think 10-15 is a virtual lock though then why do news places including Gutner at wcsh show 18-24" amounts. Does he really believe what he is forecasting or is he looking for ratings like TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, tunafish said: shouldn't have bought any hype anyways. most on here were cautioning against such totals. regardless, classic Lava "meh-ing" a storm before it even gets underway. you got me there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Lava Rock said: then why do news places including Gutner at wcsh show 18-24" amounts. Does he really believe what he is forecasting or is he looking for ratings like TWC. Maybe he saw and got lost in the kuchie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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