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40/70 Benchmark

Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

so all METS tell me this is a classic artic high

others disagree.. 

 

hmm. who to believe?

It’s not going to happen, esp inland. I hope to sit back and laugh at the 50s  like Ursula from The Little Mermaid as I look out at a snowy landscape. 

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Just now, Hoth said:

If you're looking for an all snow event sure, but surface cold is going to be pretty tenacious. Ice ice baby, at least here in the CTRV.

Good luck and if for some reason it doesn't work out, the pattern a week from now looks loaded with potential.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Haha....I'm guessing it will tick north because all the other globals did and the forum will become temporarily unreadable with people talking about rainstorms inland....esp when it tries to push 40F into Kevin's fanny.

 

Then 00z will start the "messenger shuffle" and everyone will act surprised.

I mean... really dude... I'm reading posts and it's insufferable in here.   Some posting content literally are inventions of neggie reasons to support a "miserability" - flat out making shit up to support a bitch session.

This is why I roll my eyes and get p'ode and comment about group neurosis in here... I'm kidding when I do by the way... BUT, you gotta admit ...jesus people. 

'Sides, I realize folks just probably want snow only ?  or I'm guessing... but, out here in reality:  winter has a pallet of fascinating sensible weather.  ... Treading with subjectivity, granted, but a mix thump is interesting if people allow it. 

For some it's snow... For others, they just grouse if the models don't show a text book dystopian cryo-bomb sitting in the NY Bite - .... oh well... keep the dream alive I guess.

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1 minute ago, wxextreme said:

GYX tends to over predict, especially in Southern NH.  I live in Northern MA and the general discrepancy between BOX and GYX (even though I am walking distance from the NH boarder) can be about 2-4 inches.  I'd say you would be safe with your call, but probably toward the lower end.  

I agree on the discrepancy issue. GYX over predicts snow for southern NH especially in the area along the Merrimack Valley area in NE Mass.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not going to happen, esp inland. I hope to sit back and laugh at the 50s  like Ursula from The Little Mermaid as I look out at a snowy landscape. 

you've been watching lots of kid movies based on your recent references :)

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Good luck and if for some reason it doesn't work out, the pattern a week from now looks loaded with potential.

We're in agreement there. Weeklies look mighty fine too.

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We've reached the pre-storm minutiae and debbie stage. This thing has flags but the boundary layer isn't one of them. 

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Going to go against Will on this one lol with something I never do predict what a model will do. Euro trends colder all levels. Probably be wrong but my big gut is saying time for the Euro to step up. Speaking of gut we need an @weathafellamassive dump to kick this into high gear. Enjoy the snow ice and sleet kids no matter what you get, better than the bare ground I am looking at right now (lots of dust in the air today too) oh yea let's not forget full moon goon.  Another to add to the list

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6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Yep. To me, anything above 1030 mb is a strong high pressure. 1050+ mb is pretty rare anywhere in the country.

We seem to pull 1040 at least once or twice every winter. I think I've had 1046 or so over the last 20 yrs, but never 1050. That's usually a rare MT/ND/MN deal as the highs slide down east of the Canadian rockies from Mayo.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

We seem to pull 1040 at least once or twice every winter. I think I've had 1046 or so over the last 20 yrs, but never 1050. That's usually a rare MT/ND/MN deal as the highs slide down east of the Canadian rockies from Mayo.

Exactly. I never heard of 1050+ outside MT/ND/MN. Heck, getting 1050+ in that area would generate some press and chatter on social media.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Going to go against Will on this one lol with something I never do predict what a model will do. Euro trends colder all levels. Probably be wrong but my big gut is saying time for the Euro to step up. Speaking of gut we need an @weathafellamassive dump to kick this into high gear. Enjoy the snow ice and sleet kids no matter what you get, better than the bare ground I am looking at right now (lots of dust in the air today too) oh yea let's not forget full moon goon.  Another to add to the list

AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem.

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28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have to agree but think sleet because of the Banana, if it wasn't there it would be our typical SWFE 3 inches to rain

I do think sleet because of it... more specifically, I think snow to sleet to at least some freezing rain for a spell that soaks into some snow and sleet and creates a nightmarish cement everywhere in my area once the temps plummet... and I think I'd rather plain rain at 45º F that washes away 3" of thump snow.

The GFS is cordially invited to be correct.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not going to happen, esp inland. I hope to sit back and laugh at the 50s  like Ursula from The Little Mermaid as I look out at a snowy landscape. 

Do you want to build a snowman?

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5 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Burbank leaning warmer. 

Not surprised. Just from watching him for years he probably is a bit concerned about a lack of a secondary low forming to help hold the cold in.

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47 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Para GFS looks like it could be northwest of GFS. I'm starting to be concerned for CNE, NNE

Mark,  we are fine up here.   CAD always overperforms in our neck of the woods.  Perhaps some IP but certainly no ZR.  Start time temp around 10F and dp 5F, just not going to see anything liquid.  I'm more concerned about how much qpf and ratios.  Good snow growth or needles.  This is really a post that should be in the NNE thread but wanted to respond with my thinking

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Basically the is a SWFE with a gulf connection, and an abnormally strong HP. This thing is flying across the country. Im betting the front end thump hits hard, and heavy snow develops soon after the first flakes fall. Im hedging on a Canal Cruiser. Or maybe even a bit further inland. Mitch to Dendrite in a strip that will be all snow and good accums. Sleet mixes all the way to Worcester. Im sitting at 38/35. Im guessing I go quickly to rain and see a quick temp spike as the Low passes close to my fanny.

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Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

Is this the lull between the model runs or are people jumping into the harbor?

A mix of both?  I think some are lining up by the harbor for the first post of "the 12z EURO ticked NW again" in about a half hour.

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Just now, #NoPoles said:

Basically the is a SWFE with a gulf connection, and an abnormally strong HP. This thing is flying across the country. Im betting the front end thump hits hard, and heavy snow develops soon after the first flakes fall. Im hedging on a Canal Cruiser. Or maybe even a bit further inland. Mitch to Dendrite in a strip that will be all snow and good accums. Sleet mixes all the way to Worcester. Im sitting at 38/35. Im guessing I go quickly to rain and see a quick temp spike as the Low passes close to my fanny.

The fact that you're 38/35 right now doesn't mean much when it starts TOMORROW night. 

You barely sniff 30F tomorrow for the high.

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1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Is this the lull between the model runs or are people jumping into the harbor?

I have the toaster and warm bath ready.

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2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Well. Will wait til later to cancel Sunday morning plans.

Do you actually think ORH is going to have non-frozen precip Sunday morning?

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Is this at all similar to what we saw on 12/16/07?  

Similar SWFE setup?  I got about 10" in Woburn when about 2-5" quickly to rain was forecasted.  We did eventually get into the U30s with that one...doubt those N of the Pike break 32F with this one though.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Do you actually think ORH is going to have non-frozen precip Sunday morning?

It seems a lot of people think it’s going to be in the 40’s and 50’s up into NH... when in reality it won’t be that warm on ACK :lol:

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