TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, 8611Blizz said: Burbank leaning warmer. Yeah I just watched that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not going to happen, esp inland. I hope to sit back and laugh at the 50s like Ursula from The Little Mermaid as I look out at a snowy landscape. Do you want to build a snowman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Burbank leaning warmer. Not surprised. Just from watching him for years he probably is a bit concerned about a lack of a secondary low forming to help hold the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I agree on the discrepancy issue. GYX over predicts snow for southern NH especially in the area along the Merrimack Valley area in NE Mass. Just to be clear, I love GYX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Is this the lull between the model runs or are people jumping into the harbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 47 minutes ago, MarkO said: Para GFS looks like it could be northwest of GFS. I'm starting to be concerned for CNE, NNE Mark, we are fine up here. CAD always overperforms in our neck of the woods. Perhaps some IP but certainly no ZR. Start time temp around 10F and dp 5F, just not going to see anything liquid. I'm more concerned about how much qpf and ratios. Good snow growth or needles. This is really a post that should be in the NNE thread but wanted to respond with my thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Basically the is a SWFE with a gulf connection, and an abnormally strong HP. This thing is flying across the country. Im betting the front end thump hits hard, and heavy snow develops soon after the first flakes fall. Im hedging on a Canal Cruiser. Or maybe even a bit further inland. Mitch to Dendrite in a strip that will be all snow and good accums. Sleet mixes all the way to Worcester. Im sitting at 38/35. Im guessing I go quickly to rain and see a quick temp spike as the Low passes close to my fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Is this the lull between the model runs or are people jumping into the harbor? A mix of both? I think some are lining up by the harbor for the first post of "the 12z EURO ticked NW again" in about a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well. Will wait til later to cancel Sunday morning plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: Is this the lull between the model runs or are people jumping into the harbor? I have the toaster and warm bath ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, #NoPoles said: Basically the is a SWFE with a gulf connection, and an abnormally strong HP. This thing is flying across the country. Im betting the front end thump hits hard, and heavy snow develops soon after the first flakes fall. Im hedging on a Canal Cruiser. Or maybe even a bit further inland. Mitch to Dendrite in a strip that will be all snow and good accums. Sleet mixes all the way to Worcester. Im sitting at 38/35. Im guessing I go quickly to rain and see a quick temp spike as the Low passes close to my fanny. The fact that you're 38/35 right now doesn't mean much when it starts TOMORROW night. You barely sniff 30F tomorrow for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Well. Will wait til later to cancel Sunday morning plans. Do you actually think ORH is going to have non-frozen precip Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Was thinking more the quantity and the time of greatest impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Is this at all similar to what we saw on 12/16/07? Similar SWFE setup? I got about 10" in Woburn when about 2-5" quickly to rain was forecasted. We did eventually get into the U30s with that one...doubt those N of the Pike break 32F with this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Do you actually think ORH is going to have non-frozen precip Sunday morning? It seems a lot of people think it’s going to be in the 40’s and 50’s up into NH... when in reality it won’t be that warm on ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Is this the lull between the model runs or are people jumping into the harbor? Throw back a couple quick pints before that. Makes the Polar Plunge more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Is this at all similar to what we saw on 12/16/07? Similar SWFE setup? I got about 10" in Woburn when about 2-5" quickly to rain was forecasted. We did eventually get into the U30s with that one...doubt those N of the Pike break 32F with this one though. 12/16/07 was a little different but it was the same idea with a stout arctic high. That one was actually just north of maine and slowly moving NE....this one is actually anchored better. The '07 storm though had the precip coming a bit more form the SSW and this one is more from the WSW. The forcing comes in at a bit of a different angle....the coastal front in this one will be pinned further SE due to the high position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Greg said: I have the toaster and warm bath ready. You are looking fine. What’s the worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 57 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It looks like a bird as well as a banana. As long as it brings snow. Should use a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? He is terrified of sleet I think....he's getting some sleet so he should just accept it. He will get plenty of snow before that though,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? Greg’s been pounding Red wine all morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Alot of premature negativity in here We haven't given guidance enough time to declare this a clear (or final) trend. Maybe it will be correct, but at the moment I haven't seen anything to drastically change forecasts. Our overall gestalt independent of models: this is an impressive High, the arctic air is fresh, and conversely this is not a phased super charged negatively tilted system charging in. I would anticipate a scoot east more than a GFS-esque track over Boston. I actually thought UK, which has a scoot east, was still decent for SNE. Regarding what has caused the NW track shift on the 12z suite so far...? Unclear. I've looked at 0 hr (12z) on GFS/NAM and compared to same timepoint of previous runs, suspecting that the ingest of the shortwave in the West might have shifted... but really not anything too glaring. Maybe the shortwave has ticked further north tracking over Nevada / Colorado. Maybe enough for the downstream ticks. But all within noise, and absolutely can trend in either way in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Where did the term "weenie" come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/16/07 was a little different but it was the same idea with a stout arctic high. That one was actually just north of maine and slowly moving NE....this one is actually anchored better. The '07 storm though had the precip coming a bit more form the SSW and this one is more from the WSW. The forcing comes in at a bit of a different angle....the coastal front in this one will be pinned further SE due to the high position. Great response and explanation. Thanks! Seems like most should do well despite ticks NW here and there on current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, Hailstoned said: AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem. GFS low cloud tool has clouds thinning during the evening (when noticeable effects start just after 10 pm) and even out of here near totality. At least there's hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, Hailstoned said: AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem. Last full lunar here was spiked by cloud. Unfortunately, I'd give it a 90%+ chance of happening again (though I'd take the extra snow.) I agree on the discrepancy issue. GYX over predicts snow for southern NH especially in the area along the Merrimack Valley area in NE Mass. Wait until tomorrow. If the past is a predictor, the PM shift will probably knock totals back a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Burbank leaning warmer. now its officially over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? He has no idea what he is looking at so he is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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