#NoPoles Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, if you really wanna play the a$$ game....it started snowing on the day that I said it would start snowing. Sorry you missed out- Dude, be envious of the fact that i am possibly hitting 8inches of liquid this month...quite the feat for a January 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: Dude, be envious of the fact that i am possibly hitting 8inches of liquid this month...quite the feat for a January I was down by exit 7 on Monday. Noticeable difference when you got to Kingston. ZR was down into Hanover/Norwell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 GEFS are mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Diane would have hated 10/11. Gradient was about where it is now in Kingston/Duxbury area. N and W of there was crushed. On the other hand, in 11/12, you guys got 9-12" in a Jan event that gave me 4" of sand. So you got the best of us there. Go figure. I still think when all is said and done, you'll get a good one there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I look at those with guarded optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Until that compressed flow relaxes and we see a more favorable area of ridging (pacific or Atlantic )we are highly favored to anticipate crap. This should be very very very obvious by now now when you have such EXCEPTIONAL wet pattern and score 1 out of 10 systems you see 1 or 2 snow storms by dumb luck in a pattern with destructive compressed zonal flow and a stubborn area of tropical forcing that is good for cutters when anything comes in amped . What was not anticipated was this stubborn area of tropical forcing and ridging not changing to something more favorable by now . Until this changes, we should anticipate crap . When the pacific or Atlantic looks good then we anticipate things going our way until then it seems brain dead to bang our heads against the wall. We have had 10–12 storms from November to now . 90% Rain we have had at least 6-8 advisory looking systems go poof, this is not dumb luck . It’s the pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I don't think the flow is that compressed. We have a stout ridge out west and a PV knifing into the GL with s/w's traveling pretty far south into the GOM. It's more of timing, and then dealing with fake news Judah blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think the flow is that compressed. We have a stout ridge out west and a PV knifing into the GL with s/w's traveling pretty far south into the GOM. It's more of timing, and then dealing with fake news Judah blocking. I wanna iterate These posts are in no way a dig against Ray at all I just take Johns word for that and a few other Mets . Say super fast zonal compressed flow with poor Atlantic and pacific . Why anyone would anticipate this as a good set up (currently ) is questionable to me . Not talking about what is modeled 7-14 days and pushed back or trends to same old but what we are stuck with . i kno many many many Mets anticipate changes that are more favorable and i have NO arguments with that, just until they shake out favorably we are in the crapper . We have some snow as a function of the incredibly active pattern. IF we had a near normal amount of QPF conversion to frozen in this active pattern we would easily be WAY above normal . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think the flow is that compressed. We have a stout ridge out west and a PV knifing into the GL with s/w's traveling pretty far south into the GOM. It's more of timing, and then dealing with fake news Judah blocking. I'm cautiously optimistic that I end up on the right side of the gradient with some of these marginal systems. That certainly worked out Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Until that compressed flow relaxes and we see a more favorable area of ridging (pacific or Atlantic )we are highly favored to anticipate crap. This should be very very very obvious by now now when you have such EXCEPTIONAL wet pattern and score 1 out of 10 systems you see 1 or 2 snow storms by dumb luck in a pattern with destructive compressed zonal flow and a stubborn area of tropical forcing that is good for cutters when anything comes in amped . What was not anticipated was this stubborn area of tropical forcing and ridging not changing to something more favorable by now . Until this changes, we should anticipate crap . When the pacific or Atlantic looks good then we anticipate things going our way until then it seems brain dead to bang our heads against the wall. We have had 10–12 storms from November to now . 90% Rain we have had at least 6-8 advisory looking systems go poof, this is not dumb luck . It’s the pattern. We whiffed on a major snowstorm on 1/13 because of an ill-timed streak and then barely missed a big one a couple days ago with the frigid sleet bomb because of a slight amount of excessive northern stream phasing. Two completely different reasons for missing the snow and frankly, pretty different synoptic setups. I know it sounds a lot easier to blame it on the MJO or some background anti-snow pattern but I don't think it is quite that simple. I think that explanation would have more clout for the 12/12-1/10 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it won't even be close I don't think. Both of those winters were total furnaces to this point. There is no similarity to 94-95, that’s for sure. 06-07 I believe had a -AO for most of the winter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm cautiously optimistic that I end up on the right side of the gradient with some of these marginal systems. That certainly worked out Sunday. For here, Its basically been right overhead where 20-50 miles north and west has reaped the benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it won't even be close I don't think. Both of those winters were total furnaces to this point. It seems there is a tendency to conflate "bad luck snow" with lack of cold ...? I don't think December ... when considering relative to our climatology ... was "too warm to snow" ...and in fact, one could even argue that some of our more prolific snow years are not more than a degree ...degree and a half away from normalcy, up or down, anyway. I think the 1980s ..part of the reason that decade was so frustrating is that there were few months in a few winters in there that managed the rarer neggie month ... with neggie snow. That's a hard to do 'round dees parts. Looking at this monster SPC in the mid/extended range... it's not hard to imagine how to put down a neutral/neggie month with no snow.. This is not not not not not not not saying it's going to be case this time ... but, just used as a visual aid to elucidate the point; if a big cold whopper vortex elephant's assed into the flow and mooshed everything down to flat nuance for a 20 days stint... you'd be talking 2/3rds of the way through a month in a gelid desert. There's just no way to spin or rationalize or blame this on anything other than two storms in two month dearth - period. It is what it is... again, not not not not not not not not not not not not saying it's going to be the rest of the way. Just putting the truth of a shit result into an undeniable light. It's been cold enough; it hasn't snow (that much). Deal with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Not that I'm expecting 2015 to stroll through, but what was ORH's total snow for 2014/2015 through this date vs this season? I would settle for even a half of 2015... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Not that I'm expecting 2015 to stroll through, but what was ORH's total snow for 2014/2015 through this date vs this season? I would settle for even a half of 2015... 13.9" in 2014-2015 vs 16.2" this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 55 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: By mid to late March? If by mid FEB we have nothing....then it’s time to take Ray to the woodshed and handcuff him face down. I'm sorry, I don't care how much snow we do, or do not get....1994 and 2006 were awful analogs. We already know this because temps, nor H5 composites are anything close. Those are the two elements that are MUCH more predictable, than snowfall. Just because we do not have much more snowfall than we did those seasons doesn't make them good analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I didn't look at a single snow map. Just looked at the 500mb and SLP maps. My concern is the PV is way up in Hudson Bay so I don't see much mechanism to get this to dig further S. The PV being near HB is exactly where we want it. Why would you want it parked over Burlington, VT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 13.9" in 2014-2015 vs 16.2" this year. Interesting...14-15 even worse off than we are right now by almost 2.5 inches. Just goes to show that we have a lot of Winter to go. If we can get half of what 15 had we'd be in great shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Interesting...14-15 even worse off than we are right now by almost 2.5 inches. Just goes to show that we have a lot of Winter to go. If we can get half of what 15 had we'd be in great shape. Yeah it was. I remember Ginxy trying to tell me how it wasn't bad as he was tobogganing in 3" of snow Poor grandkids hitting rocks and flying into the fence. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Looks like we finally may have a pretty big Aleutian low developing at the end of the ensembles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Everything is coming together. Big big snows starting Sunday for at least a month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is no similarity to 94-95, that’s for sure. 06-07 I believe had a -AO for most of the winter though I'd be surprised if 06-07 had anything sustained for most of the winter. Cherrypicking Jan. 13, when that month was running 11.6° AN after record mild Nov-Dec (the latter eclipsed in 2015), we'd had 11" of snow. From Jan. 14 thru April 18 (last licks of Patriot's Day storm) we ran 4.9° BN with 84" snow. Something certainly changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We whiffed on a major snowstorm on 1/13 because of an ill-timed streak and then barely missed a big one a couple days ago with the frigid sleet bomb because of a slight amount of excessive northern stream phasing. Two completely different reasons for missing the snow and frankly, pretty different synoptic setups. I know it sounds a lot easier to blame it on the MJO or some background anti-snow pattern but I don't think it is quite that simple. I think that explanation would have more clout for the 12/12-1/10 period. Its been a combination of things...poor timing, and the MJO. I know people hate to hear it, but its been bad luck. This season has not been as awful as the seasonal snowfall implies...just like 2015 wasn't as orgasmic as they would lead one to believe. And don't misconstrue this as me paving an escape route....if things don't work out, the missed snowfall will be factored into the grading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 GGEM offers up a longish duration light snow to light ice event next week fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like we finally may have a pretty big Aleutian low developing at the end of the ensembles. EPS was doing it too. Nice to GEFS catch on now. I'd like it a bit further west on GEFS verbatim but the trend has been that way versus the past couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it was. I remember Ginxy trying to tell me how it wasn't bad as he was tobogganing in 3" of snow Poor grandkids hitting rocks and flying into the fence. I remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I'd sell any unfavorable looks in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is no similarity to 94-95, that’s for sure. 06-07 I believe had a -AO for most of the winter though Dec 2006 was a horrible match to December 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS was doing it too. Nice to GEFS catch on now. I'd like it a bit further west on GEFS verbatim but the trend has been that way versus the past couple days. Yeah it was. I agree...lets get it get a tad, but we take for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS was doing it too. Nice to GEFS catch on now. I'd like it a bit further west on GEFS verbatim but the trend has been that way versus the past couple days. I thought it was too troughy in the GOA but I defer to the experts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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