40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS def looks interesting for Tuesday. Too suppressed for Sunday except maybe some light snow of the C-1" variety (more for the upslope fetish locations) Snowy SB week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Snowy SB week. Days and days of snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 It's out to 144 hours at GG ... Same old same old.... too much compression...waves tending to shear/absorb... Sloped and gradient rich gives faux allusion of favorability but until some of the velocity saturation comes down...it's going to be tooth pulling getting broader organized events to pan out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Impressive EPO ridge/noded block formulation in the 00z guidance by D10 ... I was mentioning to Scott the other day ... I thought it was possible that the receding back to the data-line of the Alaskan sector might by false .... He was speaking in deference to the D11-15 ... but, sufficed it is to say, this rather abrupt onset of D10 -EPO construct shows that "tendency" lurks ... I would be taking even the EPS' D11-15's with a grain - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Starting to look Feb 2015-ish out there with that exotic vortex E of JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Push it back push it back wayyyyyyy back...pattern change in February, now. Ok, just being an ass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: Push it back push it back wayyyyyyy back...pattern change in February, now. Ok, just being an ass Well, if you really wanna play the a$$ game....it started snowing on the day that I said it would start snowing. Sorry you missed out- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 ORH is actually below normal on temps for the month of January now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH is actually below normal on temps for the month of January now... Not for long... I think I went +2 to +3 for January, so I may end up a bit too warm, ironically enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH is actually below normal on temps for the month of January now... BOS has been mini BTV lately. I feel like at times it runs a tick or two warm. HFD is +0.4. PVD -0.2, and BOS +1.5. That's a little too much of a difference for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not for long... I think I went +2 to +3 for January, so I may end up a bit too warm. They'll go back BN after the Thursday torch. I'm guessing they finish around -0.5 to -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS def looks interesting for Tuesday. Too suppressed for Sunday except maybe some light snow of the C-1" variety (more for the upslope fetish locations) Interesting? Maybe for C/NNE verbatim. Primary pretty far west over the GL. With another SLP off southerast coast, there is only so far this can diggity dig. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH is actually below normal on temps for the month of January now... Tomorrow’s 58 will hurt that . But with Fri onwards below normal .. may be able to come in a little BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: BOS has been mini BTV lately. I feel like at times it runs a tick or two warm. HFD is +0.4. PVD -0.2, and BOS +1.5. That's a little too much of a difference for me. At least I'll verify for the month at Boston lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 14 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Push it back push it back wayyyyyyy back...pattern change in February, now. Ok, just being an ass I've entered the acceptance stage of this winter and whatever happens, happens. I just can't believe raindancewx's winter forecast is turning out to be true. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I've entered the acceptance stage of this winter and whatever happens, happens. I just can't believe raindancewx's winter forecast is turning out to be true. We have a long way to go yet....but if by Mid to late March and nothing has happened in the snow dept.....then I think everybody will have to give Raindancewx Kudo's for an incredible call when all were exactly the opposite. But there's a lot of Winter season left to go..no spiking Yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I've entered the acceptance stage of this winter and whatever happens, happens. I just can't believe raindancewx's winter forecast is turning out to be true. We are 3 days into the period during which I said that winter would begin in earnest, and most of sne had a decent snowstorm on the first day. Absurd. He would have to look good at this point for me to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I've entered the acceptance stage of this winter and whatever happens, happens. I just can't believe raindancewx's winter forecast is turning out to be true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BOS has been mini BTV lately. I feel like at times it runs a tick or two warm. HFD is +0.4. PVD -0.2, and BOS +1.5. That's a little too much of a difference for me. idk about PVD, but that last cold shot was definitely more centered toward WNE/BDL. CON is +1.0 and PWM +0.6. Not a lot of rhyme or reason to the departures so far this month. IF there isn't a gradient, usually we'll see the rad spots with similar departures and the more mixed sites with similar departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are 3 days into the period during which I said that winter would begin in earnest, and most of sne had a decent snowstorm on the first day. Absurd. He would have to look good at this point for me to verify. I forget exactly what his forecast was, I think he used the 94/95 and 06/07 analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I forget exactly what his forecast was, I think he used the 94/95 and 06/07 analogs. This winter won’t end up anywhere near as mild as those did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Interesting? Maybe for C/NNE verbatim. Primary pretty far west over the GL. With another SLP off southerast coast, there is only so far this can diggity dig. I guess we differ on what constitutes interesting. I'm not looking for verbatim snow maps that show us jackpotting. But I see a shortwave approaching us from the southwest with a good high in place. GFS doesn't quite squeeze everything under us like the GGEM does but I would still consider that interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I forget exactly what his forecast was, I think he used the 94/95 and 06/07 analogs. As I said..long way to go here. I Agree with Ray that he would be looking good at this point, but we are nowhere close to even thinking about spiking the ball on Winter Forecasts on Jan 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: idk about PVD, but that last cold shot was definitely more centered toward WNE/BDL. CON is +1.0 and PWM +0.6. Not a lot of rhyme or reason to the departures so far this month. IF there isn't a gradient, usually we'll see the rad spots with similar departures and the more mixed sites with similar departures. I’ve noticed this for a little while now. I can understand a half degree or a little more difference, but that’s sort of pushing it. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We have a long way to go yet....but if by Mid to late March and nothing has happened in the snow dept.....then I think everybody will have to give Raindancewx Kudo's for an incredible call when all were exactly the opposite. But there's a lot of Winter season left to go..no spiking Yet. By mid to late March? If by mid FEB we have nothing....then it’s time to take Ray to the woodshed and handcuff him face down. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: As I said..long way to go here. I Agree with Ray that he would be looking good at this point, but we are nowhere close to even thinking about spiking the ball on Winter Forecasts on Jan 23rd. Very true, the pattern going forward doesn't look too bad. Think something could pop in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Last year March made all the difference in everybody's winter.....who knows what happens this year. Personally, I don't think anybody knows what lies ahead...the set up going forward is super complicated and I agree with you(Berg) that things can pop up real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This winter won’t end up anywhere near as mild as those did. Yeah it won't even be close I don't think. Both of those winters were total furnaces to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I guess we differ on what constitutes interesting. I'm not looking for verbatim snow maps that show us jackpotting. But I see a shortwave approaching us from the southwest with a good high in place. GFS doesn't quite squeeze everything under us like the GGEM does but I would still consider that interesting. I didn't look at a single snow map. Just looked at the 500mb and SLP maps. My concern is the PV is way up in Hudson Bay so I don't see much mechanism to get this to dig further S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I didn't look at a single snow map. Just looked at the 500mb and SLP maps. My concern is the PV is way up in Hudson Bay so I don't see much mechanism to get this to dig further S. Perhaps the Good High can press it down a bit more, and have it dig a little further south???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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