January 2019 Discussion II

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The EPS looks like a two day transience with that warm up ... Not sure how that compares to the operational per se... but, that's only "devastating" because we've been devastated by dearth and only adds to torment.

But, truth be told, ...could almost just be construed as a thaw anyway - most winters have them.   We been cold enough to snow, just no snow ... So, as far as "thawing" is concerned, snow is/was never really a part of that - it's about pattern roll outs and temperature recovery ... 

Usually prior to some form or another of a reload so... unfortunately, whether winter enthusiasts feel they have patience to endure a thaw or not - because of taxation and tolls already rendered ....

too bad. 

Yeah it's warm D8-10 but there's actually some signs it could get tempered by a high to the north lurking...we'll see. Beyond that the pattern looks very good...not perfect...but very good. Seems to be a theme though. Can't score when the pattern is merely good to very good. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pickles bets are a lock now

They were always a lock

iceberg knew it even when he made it 

i head day 10 looks good ....

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's warm D8-10 but there's actually some signs it could get tempered by a high to the north lurking...we'll see. Beyond that the pattern looks very good...not perfect...but very good. Seems to be a theme though. Can't score when the pattern is merely good to very good. 

Well yeah ...that's certainly the frustration root, right there.

But ... I was thinkin ...  if it did not snow again this winter, then, take (2015+this winter)/2 ...we might be about average...  I know I know...good luck selling fairness -

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Glad we don’t live at thief river falls.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KTVF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/27/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03|MON CLIMO
 N/X  -7   5|-29 -27|-38 -22|-31  -4| -4  17| 14  26|  6   7|-13 -4 16
 TMP  -2  -1|-23 -29|-33 -25|-24  -6|  3  14| 18  23| 13   3| -8      
 DPT -13 -11|-30 -38|-40 -32|-30 -12| -3   7| 12  15|  8  -2|-13      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND  17  12| 12  18| 14   9|  7  11| 13  10| 16  16| 12  12| 15      
 P12  61  33| 13  10|  7   4|  0  20| 23  21| 19  24| 33  18| 17999999
 P24      69|     13|      8|     21|     27|     31|     40|      999
 Q12   1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       1|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0      
 T24        |  1    |  0    |  0    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  1      
 PZP   1   1|  0   1|  1   1|  0   1|  2   3|  6   8|  7   1|  2      
 PSN  98  99|100  99| 99  98|100  99| 92  90| 90  74| 67  97| 95      
 PRS   1   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  2   5|  4   5| 15   2|  4      
 TYP   S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   Z|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       1|      1|      0|      0|      1|      0|       |         
                                                                      

 

Cheap midnight high Tuesday in the teens below zero. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Glad we don’t live at thief river falls.

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KTVF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/27/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31| FRI 01| SAT 02| SUN 03|MON CLIMO
 N/X  -7   5|-29 -27|-38 -22|-31  -4| -4  17| 14  26|  6   7|-13 -4 16
 TMP  -2  -1|-23 -29|-33 -25|-24  -6|  3  14| 18  23| 13   3| -8      
 DPT -13 -11|-30 -38|-40 -32|-30 -12| -3   7| 12  15|  8  -2|-13      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND  17  12| 12  18| 14   9|  7  11| 13  10| 16  16| 12  12| 15      
 P12  61  33| 13  10|  7   4|  0  20| 23  21| 19  24| 33  18| 17999999
 P24      69|     13|      8|     21|     27|     31|     40|      999
 Q12   1   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       1|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0      
 T24        |  1    |  0    |  0    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  1      
 PZP   1   1|  0   1|  1   1|  0   1|  2   3|  6   8|  7   1|  2      
 PSN  98  99|100  99| 99  98|100  99| 92  90| 90  74| 67  97| 95      
 PRS   1   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  2   5|  4   5| 15   2|  4      
 TYP   S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   Z|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       1|      1|      0|      0|      1|      0|       |         
                                                                      

 

Low of 6, nigh of 7, PSN down to 67%.    I’m guessing the entire column is easily sub freezing.   MOS has some wtf moments.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's warm D8-10 but there's actually some signs it could get tempered by a high to the north lurking...we'll see. Beyond that the pattern looks very good...not perfect...but very good. Seems to be a theme though. Can't score when the pattern is merely good to very good. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012712&fh=504

[dendrite]

55 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Low of 6, nigh of 7, PSN down to 67%.    I’m guessing the entire column is easily sub freezing.   MOS has some wtf moments.

It isn't though. TVF is flirting with 0C at 850 on the 3rd ahead of the next system coming out of the Rockies. The high of 7F would indicate steady or falling temps through the 12-00z period. I mean, the 12z temp there is 13F and 00z is 3F.

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It isn't though. TVF is flirting with 0C at 850 on the 3rd ahead of the next system coming out of the Rockies. The high of 7F would indicate steady or falling temps through the 12-00z period. I mean, the 12z temp there is 13F and 00z is 3F.

Inversion from hell!

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They were always a lock

iceberg knew it even when he made it 

i head day 10 looks good ....

No it wasn't. If you win here, and it lures you into continuing to bet me, I'm fine with it because I'm sure I'll come out ahead in the long run.

No one is right all of the time, but I'm comfortable with my track record.

[weathafella]

Pickles will really be pissed if BOS gets 20 in February, 40 in March, and a fluke KU on 4/3 dumping 22....

[weathafella]

39 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

I passed through there on the way back from salt lake last Tuesday....meh, typical Chicago in January, dreary, 26 degrees...freezing snizzle....nothing to write home about. 

 

What you described is typical but the past few days are way colder.  -10 to +10 and a lot colder coming mid week.

[qg_omega]

It's very clear the SSW destroyed many forecasts, it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, many dismissed this saying it didn't matter.  It clearly did and I strongly believe the strong MJO in unfavorable phases is due to the strong and long SSW event.  

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's very clear the SSW destroyed many forecasts, it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, many dismissed this saying it didn't matter.  It clearly did and I strongly believe the strong MJO in unfavorable phases is due to the strong and long SSW event.  

Europe has been cold but that isn't where the largest chunk of it went....

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Europe has been cold but that isn't where the largest chunk of it went....

 

KSweed?

[weathafella]

Canada’s cold!

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Canada’s cold!

Central Canada is an icebox and has been for awhile.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

It's very clear the SSW destroyed many forecasts, it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, many dismissed this saying it didn't matter.  It clearly did and I strongly believe the strong MJO in unfavorable phases is due to the strong and long SSW event.  

I agree with this...at least to an extent. I think it provides deconstructive interference to atlantic blocking because of where the warming occured. That is what mattered. However I was right that there would still be enough cold, but I failed to foresee 1) The fact that we'd even have a SSW this season 2) The it would prove inimical to n atl blocking.

[CoastalWx]

The cold focus was not in Europe. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Windex squalls on Wednesday?

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh... man, at -15 to -35 F over here on the "warm side of the SSW" ...guess we dodged a bullet, huh. 

Firstly, SSW's don't deliver cold ?  It is unclear at best whether certain individual understands the rudimentary facets of the SSW model to begin with, and no ... no one else in the greater ambit of worthy writers on the subject matter, ever implicated the SSW directly to cold without at least tacit recognition of how that works; unlike this special kind of stupid asshole's comment implies they believe: "it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, "  As if it is even necessary to say... what the f* does snow have to do with SSW's ?

Secondly, everyone should try to adopt at least some attempt to understand the psychology behind someone's intents ... and in some cases antics. It'll help you put them into perspective, and... you'll be less inclined to indulge their strategy. 

It's not a tough read. It's not audacious or inappropriate to do so, either.  This is a text-book case of frustrations ..regardless of exact triggers, then needing a place to vent, they feel cozy in doing so from a desk-top and/or hand held device out in the oblivion of the electronic Universe - i.,e.,, trolling in anonymity.  It's cowardly and most cases, out-of-line and as the above course work certainly exposed, wrong.  Hate to extend the elementary method (but being that his is open to the public ... you have douchy adolescence and/or suspended developed adult jaggovs amongst you), ... the only way that can be controlled?  Completely and utterly ignoring them.  Particularly since moderation on this forum is relaxed since this became an enterprise. 

Block if you must ... do whatever you need to, but that individual's tactic  is clear:  once in a while, post something seemingly cogent, thinking that affords enough clout enough to then execute his/her real intent, abuse of other's insights because he/she cannot produce enough of their own to protect them from their own frustration.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

So it appeared to me a couple days ago that the Euro operational ...and to some lesser extent, it's ensemble mean (dreadfully known as the   E P S s s s  ), may be overcooked with the warm up ...scale of anomaly, time length ..etc.    I speculated that it may come down to just two days of more transient warm sector penetration ...partial dance around -impetus is that said warm sector could be contaminated at that, implied... 

Last night's 00z run performed a much more coherent correction in favor of that insight. In fact, the operational version even offers an ice potential during the same period it had a day plausibly in the 60s just two runs ago.  

Also, ice event phenomenon is favored in that general large synoptic evolution/period... at least when employing the balance of the GEFs tele's ... Seeing trends like this in the operational runs merely becomes a probabilistic fit ... "Ice storms" ... in fact, any magnitude there in is completely unknown.  Just that it is something to look for -

Ironically ... the oper. Euro went from the most emphatic warm solution to the more seasonal neutral solution ....effectively reversing places with the GFS ... which seems more interested in deeper warm sectors all of the sudden - I disagree with that for the same antecedent reasoning ... It's own ensemble eofs have -AO riding over a top a neutral PNA ... that doesn't exactly scream torrid heights up to the Del Marva

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So it appeared to me a couple days ago that the Euro operational ...and to some lesser extent, it's ensemble mean (dreadfully known as the   E P S s s s  ), may be overcooked with the warm up ...scale of anomaly, time length ..etc.    I speculated that it may come down to just two days of more transient warm sector penetration ...partial dance around -impetus is that said warm sector could be contaminated at that, implied... 

Last night's 00z run performed a much more coherent correction in favor of that insight. In fact, the operational version even offers an ice potential during the same period it had a day plausibly in the 60s just two runs ago.  

Also, ice event phenomenon is favored in that general large synoptic evolution/period... at least when employing the balance of the GEFs tele's ... Seeing trends like this in the operational runs merely becomes a probabilistic fit ... "Ice storms" ... in fact, any magnitude there in is completely unknown.  Just that it is something to look for -

Negative EPO with troughiness in the west is def a synoptic setup where ice is more common. Euro actually did have ice in the D8-9 system over interior. Obviously that doesn't mean too much at this time lead but it shows how it would happen if we got that lower level oozing of cold underneath the upper level ridging in the east. 

[dryslot]

Some very ugly ones in there, Especially in SNE

[Damage In Tolland]

55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... man, at -15 to -35 F over here on the "warm side of the SSW" ...guess we dodged a bullet, huh. 

Firstly, SSW's don't deliver cold ?  It is unclear at best whether certain individual understands the rudimentary facets of the SSW model to begin with, and no ... no one else in the greater ambit of worthy writers on the subject matter, ever implicated the SSW directly to cold without at least tacit recognition of how that works; unlike this special kind of stupid asshole's comment implies they believe: "it was clear in December the SSW would focus the cold and snow into Europe, "  As if it is even necessary to say... what the f* does snow have to do with SSW's ?

Secondly, everyone should try to adopt at least some attempt to understand the psychology behind someone's intents ... and in some cases antics. It'll help you put them into perspective, and... you'll be less inclined to indulge their strategy. 

It's not a tough read. It's not audacious or inappropriate to do so, either.  This is a text-book case of frustrations ..regardless of exact triggers, then needing a place to vent, they feel cozy in doing so from a desk-top and/or hand held device out in the oblivion of the electronic Universe - i.,e.,, trolling in anonymity.  It's cowardly and most cases, out-of-line and as the above course work certainly exposed, wrong.  Hate to extend the elementary method (but being that his is open to the public ... you have douchy adolescence and/or suspended developed adult jaggovs amongst you), ... the only way that can be controlled?  Completely and utterly ignoring them.  Particularly since moderation on this forum is relaxed since this became an enterprise. 

Block if you must ... do whatever you need to, but that individual's tactic  is clear:  once in a while, post something seemingly cogent, thinking that affords enough clout enough to then execute his/her real intent, abuse of other's insights because he/she cannot produce enough of their own to protect them from their own frustration.  

 

He’s exposed himself as a fraud troll on here multiple times . He’s a high school kid with an ax to grind 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Negative EPO with troughiness in the west is def a synoptic setup where ice is more common. Euro actually did have ice in the D8-9 system over interior. Obviously that doesn't mean too much at this time lead but it shows how it would happen if we got that lower level oozing of cold underneath the upper level ridging in the east. 

Yeah ... Honestly I've been reliant on the more crude AO/PNA coupling to make that determination as the usual source for the EPO/WPO has been off-line since the appropriations pissing contest ...

Supposedly, that's ended as of last Friday.  So... it's just now 9: AM, and assuming those offices are opening today... I figure the CDC comes back on-line say ... Wednesday ?  That should be enough shake-down time to dust off and allow the routines grind away and get caught back up enough to start putting out indexes by mid week.  don't know though -

I just don't know of any sites that post the EPO and WPO off either EPS or GEFs ... I haven't bothered to look as the Internet had become too bogged down by greed and conquest ...  ruined the Internet for any information retrieval ... 

[dendrite]

lol CAR....literally 100" more than BOS (officially) and it's only late January.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol CAR....literally 100" more than BOS (officially) and it's only late January.

You know... Earth and IMBY part company ... 

Oh, IMBY is certainly on Earth  (depending on the person reporting, I should say...) but, from a more macro perspective, this is a huuuuuugemangus snow year or eastern North America. 

Sorry - it is... if CAR doubles that ...which they could seeing as Feb and Mar lurk ... 

Part of the problem is acceptance.  Simple facet really ...but one human beings have an equally huge problem with.  It's why there are four or five stages in the post-mortem recovery... haha. 

Seriously though, just because it hasn't snowed much between Mt Washington and NYC ...doesn't mean that it hasn't been a big snow year - it's all a matter of a relative-scope.   

I'm sure in 2015 when we were what 200% of normal by February 28th that years, and BTV was 90% ... we weren't claiming it was a bad winter.   Funny how that works. 

I mean I'm not lecturing you per se just sayn'

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some very ugly ones in there, Especially in SNE

When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. 

Some hate to admit it, But at some point there has to be some regression to even out those avgs.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When KWAL is beating KBOS (yes I know..eyes rolling, but just saying)....you really just tip your cap. It's unbelievable. Mother Nature pumping the breaks on our insane decadal snow averages. Climo is a bitch. 

Even with the missed totals for BOS, they are far behind where they should be, to date.