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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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Just now, Fozz said:

I know, which is why I said in the previous post that I don't really care that I'm not in one.

Yup. All the central and upper eastern shore counties aren't either. The accumulation forecast for my yard has 6" on the upper end. If I get the 6, I don't think it would look any different if my county was shaded in pink on a map instead of purple.

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This is probably the last RGEM ensemble update for this storm.  It stuck with the same general idea, but now with more snow.

sTeA1dg.png

I figured out how to get probability plots for the whole storm rathern than just 24-hour chunks.  I have to plot total precipitation, not just qpf as snow.  I'm not going to show the 5mm plot, because at least 90% of ensemble members show everyone in this region getting at least 5mm of precip.  Even PSU.  Here's the 15 mm plot.

7JJjx0Y.png

Not all of that will fall as snow.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup. All the central and upper eastern shore counties aren't either. The accumulation forecast for my yard has 6" on the upper end. If I get the 6, I don't think it would look any different if my county was shaded in pink on a map instead of purple.

I recall several nice events in which I've seen 5-6" from an event that only had an advisory. With some luck, this one could also join that list.

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1 minute ago, cae said:

This is probably the last RGEM ensemble update for this storm.  It stuck with the same general idea, but now with more snow.

sTeA1dg.png

I figured out how to get probability plots for the whole storm rathern than just 24-hour chunks.  I have to plot total precipitation, not just qpf as snow.  I'm not going to show the 5mm plot, because at least 90% of ensemble members show everyone in this region getting at least 5mm of precip.  Even PSU.  Here's the 15 mm plot.

7JJjx0Y.png

Not all of that will fall as snow.

Nice @usedtobe jackpot.

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