Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,389
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    crossbowftw3
    Newest Member
    crossbowftw3
    Joined
WxUSAF

January 12-14, 2019 Storm Discussion STORM MODE

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I'm confused as to why DC would experience any UHI effect in this scenario given temps in the mid-20s? Why would that limit our snow total?

Long duration, light snow event would be my guess.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I'm confused as to why DC would experience any UHI effect in this scenario given temps in the mid-20s? Why would that limit our snow total?

It shouldn’t substantially. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not a huge fan of the model but the icon has a more consolidated shortwave approaching. Should be a little better with the coastal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I'm confused as to why DC would experience any UHI effect in this scenario given temps in the mid-20s? Why would that limit our snow total?

I went to College Park a little while ago, and even when it was under 25 degrees (1/30/2010), the snow was melting on contact on the sidewalks. Some spots really do have a terrible heat island.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, peribonca said:

What I like seeing so far on the 18 z models is the WAA coming in stronger and less into PA.

RGEM has a much more impressive precip shield at H54 than the NAM does, although it does seem to be a bias of that model (overestimating precip in dry air - in the 12/9 storm it had the furthest north, and most gradual cutoff). It will be interesting to have the HRDPS in range tomorrow - according to cae it did the best of the meso models for that storm with the cutoff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Chase said:

LWX also modified how they will do the Winter Weather Outlook for the week... interesting dividing lines.

The Shenandoah Valley in me also resents being named the "Piedmont."

D3_WinterThreat.png

Nice for weenies, but I hope that's not their primary way of alerting the public.  Way too complicated.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

RGEM has a much more impressive precip shield at H54 than the NAM does, although it does seem to be a bias of that model (overestimating precip in dry air - in the 12/9 storm it had the furthest north, and most gradual cutoff). It will be interesting to have the HRDPS in range tomorrow - according to cae it did the best of the meso models for that storm with the cutoff.

With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol

IMG_8268.thumb.PNG.ce1582f5b59308da08368101ddad9d86.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol

IMG_8268.thumb.PNG.ce1582f5b59308da08368101ddad9d86.PNG

We haven’t gotten desperate yet. If we have to start leaning on the SREFs then we will know we are in trouble :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol

IMG_8268.thumb.PNG.ce1582f5b59308da08368101ddad9d86.PNG

Looks a lot like the GFS lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice track on the gfs...inland NC at hour 66 instead of off Wilmington...DC might do well with the coastal

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Beachin said:

GFS looks much better wow North push is real

I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great sign to see higher snow totals in the Ohio valley. The precip is hanging on longer as it moves east. Should help us with the WAA snow.

Here's the 12z and 18z to compare.

gfs_asnow_us_14.png

gfs_asnow_us_13.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh66_trend.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro

Maybe not for you, but it's a good amount better for DCA.

I don't mean to be rude, just saying overall

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will say there are improvements at h5 with a bit better orientation and less squashing, in addition to the confluence not pressing down as much in NE. There was a decent step towards some coastal impacts around DC and those south. 


If we can get psu's fabled 50 mile north shift, the gfs would look very much like the CMC/some of the EPS members. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I think your over exaggerating a bit. It’s a little better for DC and southern MD. More in line with Euro

No he’s not.  At least down this way

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well. Let’s hope this continues at 0z

i hope 12z GFS was the rock bottom valley for this event. If we get a similar N Shift that we got on dec 9, it could be good times

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I liked both the gfs and icon vort panels. If there's a trend in the short range, let it be a better consolidated vort. Locking into what we first thought and a path to upside isnt out of the question 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Great sign to see higher snow totals in the Ohio valley. The precip is hanging on longer as it moves east. Should help us with the WAA snow.

Here's the 12z and 18z to compare.

Agreed...The more moisture slug we can get up into the OHV the better we should do being further west.  I have found that these WAA event moving from W--->E do pretty well around here.  The mountains will do there thing but I can envision a 12-15:1 event out here with .35" qpf.  Would = a nice event imo.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×