jackb979 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Northern part of system gets torn up again. Would love if it could get moved up the coast but that'll be tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yep. If the other guidance moves to that solution tonight we might be in trouble again. When it was diving that energy in behind in previous runs I was hopeful that given the typical trend towards a more amplified system in the end game we would be ok. But if that's coming down in front like last time then we have the same exact problem as December only with an even weaker system this time. That wouldn't work. That would leave us with only the weak NS wave that runs out ahead. Hopefully the jv models injected some bad mojo. Looks okay at hr 78...we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Woah 84 this should definitely be better much better vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 out to 78 GFS bucks the trend vs 18z guidance and looks a little better than 6 hours ago. Hope thats enough for yall to sleep on, cause I'm turning in and whatever it will be will be here to look at tomorrow. 10 more model runs to go ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 At 90 the coastal is closer. Every little bit of amp out west held it seems before the shredder. Good hit EZF south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nice hit for RIC.....shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 gfs trying to stop the bleeding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Not loving the h5. It's stretching out and leaving a lot of energy behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Beachin said: Woah 84 this should definitely be better much better vort Much eh. Better perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, jackb979 said: Gets torn up again. Almost identical to 18z uh...look at next 2 panels, thats better than 18z for sure. Not by a country mile, but maybe an inch in your backyards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 At 90 the faster progression of the coastal has the precip the furthest north its been in 4 runs Low position is also the furthest north being over ENC 96 its definitely trending north now 4 runs in a row precip goes further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Closest .25 contour from the coastal for the cities.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 102 has 1004 SLP about 150 miles east of ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks okay at hr 78...we shall see. Ehh I'm meh...haven't looked at precip yet but to 84 it's a mess at h5. Stretched out. Energy all over. Nothing consolidated. Flat. Strung out crap garbage look imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I didnt see any sig differences other than slp being north. Seemed like noise. I thought 18z's vort progression should have been as good or better than last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 CMC shifted north from 12z...6+ line up to DCA/BWI. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2-3 inches on GFS run for DC/Nova. Good run for Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Looks good for me here in Stafford. Locking it in at 5" to 7" for mby Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 OMG the cmc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, GEOS5ftw said: CMC shifted north from 12z...6+ line up to DCA/BWI. I would be totally satisfied with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Its time to take the weenie the GFS is not calibrated properly...not getting proper data digestion....its probably JV now till Trump builds the wall(besides the snow wall in DC) and opens the Govt back up and lets Ucculini back in 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's losing its upper level support as the flow gets compressed and starts to de amplify and its running into resistance at the surface from the apps and the high pressure and so it jumps to the next least hostile environment which is the barclinoc zone along the coast. The jump isn't the problem. Some of our big storms take that track. The problem is the storm is washing out and the lift mechanisms are dying. In simplistic terms the initial wave from the west is dying as it approached and the new low developing on the coast is too weak to do much for us until it's too late. If you want to keep yourself up all night out total fail scenario would be for the initial waa wave to either die or ride to our north with minimal impact and then the coastal to develop too late and we end up in a snow hole. Folks will not let me forget last month, will they? Smh Gonna be trolled for the rest of the winter. Unnecessary...I ain't gone off once since. Now every one of my questions is being treated in the context of last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I'm good with the gfs. 2-6" through the area and moved max stripe nw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, GEOS5ftw said: CMC shifted north from 12z...6+ line up to DCA/BWI. Lol CMC ups theante. GFS hours of light snow, looks weak but slp is closer to the coast then 18z. Would sure love to buy me some stock in cmc but hard to without support. Biggest euro run of the season! Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 In the end the GFS was a wetter run after the low transfers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, jackb979 said: 2-3 inches on GFS run for DC/Nova. Good run for Richmond That’s inaccurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z GFS isn't super bad though... except for near Mason-Dixon line... @Bob Chill post above agrees with this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 goal posts are narrowing on a md and/or va special. tbd on whether this nudges north some. it's a slightly better run than 18z for dc proper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 0.5” just south of DC. 0.3” at M/D line. I’d take it and run. I do not understand the panic from the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Yea, i trust the cmc. Lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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