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HoarfrostHubb

Beggars can’t be Choosers strung out mess Jan 8/9

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Pretty putrid runs overnight. Glad I was distracted by the Cowboys game. 

The second storm is getting stronger but models are developing it too far NW...euro was non-snow on that well into CNE. We need to get that system south a bit but time is starting to tick. 

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Chest?

That too.

57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty putrid runs overnight. Glad I was distracted by the Cowboys game. 

The second storm is getting stronger but models are developing it too far NW...euro was non-snow on that well into CNE. We need to get that system south a bit but time winter is starting to tick. 

fixed.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty putrid runs overnight. Glad I was distracted by the Cowboys game. 

The second storm is getting stronger but models are developing it too far NW...euro was non-snow on that well into CNE. We need to get that system south a bit but time is starting to tick. 

I'm going to be the only one left posting by the time this rolls around. 

Its getting pretty crazy how a large part of this forum can't even just sneak in an advisory level snow...New England in mid-winter shouldn't be this hard.  Just plain unlucky at some point.  

I mean send 6-10 upper level troughs through in mid-winter and you'd think at least one would produce something.

 

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm going to be the only one left posting by the time this rolls around. 

Its getting pretty crazy how a large part of this forum can't even just sneak in an advisory level snow...New England in mid-winter shouldn't be this hard.  Just plain unlucky at some point.  

I mean send 6-10 upper level troughs through in mid-winter and you'd think at least one would produce something.

 

I was only half-joking a few days ago when I said you'd be be the only one left posting by the time we got close. 

 

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44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty putrid runs overnight. Glad I was distracted by the Cowboys game. 

The second storm is getting stronger but models are developing it too far NW...euro was non-snow on that well into CNE. We need to get that system south a bit but time is starting to tick. 

This is entirely realistic assessment of the overnight guidance suite ... I mean, not that you're unrealistic just sayn'

In fact, I was looking at this in a particularly nasty ironic perception of matters:  we are going to get our second stronger wave to reinvigorate a band of action alright... it's gonna be rain! Wah wah waaaah 

The problem is... (or relates to, I suspect) is that the previous speculation and conjectures offered plausible neggie interference rippling out ahead of a stronger follow-up wave space. It should. That's how wave mechanics/interaction works.  Anyway, failing to do so means no/less dampening out that lead S/W along with its concomitant WAA IB ...  So the NWS personnel is entirely correct in their assessment (even for Maine but I suspect ultimately less of an issue for them) that the WAA does nothing but f-up the wintry profile.  

It "could" be an error point?   Not sure... Thing is, the relay off the Pacific keeps pushing later in time.. The follow-up S/W was originally slated to come into the physical sounding array ~ 12z this morning...   well, actually, start to nose in overnight last night. But no. Now that we are passing through that time it's since correct some 18 hours from now.  Jesus...over the years, these flat flow amplitudes have always been a problem with guidance and this has gotta be incarnate of that.   

Get a load of the NAM's vorticity/wind at 500 mb for 21 hours on this 12z run... Compare it to the 06z at same position ...?  Not sure how it pulls that off, but... it deepens the geopotential heights over Nebraska, albeit modestly ... still enough to compress the gaps between the isotachs. Yet, lowers the velocities on the attending wind barbs.   That's like physically impossible!  Sorry...that's side annoyance...

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Back to snow/ snow showers that night for white rest of week . Grab another inch and call it a day 

Ya...that ain’t happening James!!!  Keep dreaming lol..

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heh, ...some of me wonders if all this was written on the wall when we tried to amplify anything at all over that warm levy of heights in the S/SE anyway...

It's been dicey and low probability from the get-go so .. hopefully we were realistic about that.  So yeah... get what we get I guess.

Not much conciliatory offering by the operational suite for the extended, either.

It's like... fascinating, but where ever there has been corrections, they have been specifically targeting any factors that could change the look of the landscape outside.  ...Doing so at times, while not changing the complexion of the pattern in general.  In other words, attacking snow. haha.  Kidding but the thought arrives with a couple of impressive pinwheels on the EC by both the GFS and it's (supposedly) soon to be promoted paranormal versions, indicating white rain nor-easters entering the climo bell-curve of winter.  Talk about trampling on the backs of the bruised...

I wonder what EPS looked like over night.  I wonder if we're still suffering hang-over and not entirely getting the new paradigm shift underway.  Someone asked me the other day if we were seeing it (at last) all at once when we had that impressive cycle a couple days ago.  I told them it was too soon to know. We needed more time to get a foundation of consistency - good thing I said that... holy shit!

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Another fail.  Let’s lock this thread and move on.

Well NNE is part of this forum....

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Objectively... the final call on this can't be rendered until the runs tomorrow.

I realize however that objectivity is a rarefied approach these days ... but, that is still true despite your inconsolability at this time.

There is still still some probability > 0 that the S/W mechanics relaying off the Pacific 18 to 24 hours from now, modulate the end results downstream over NE.  ...It could be for better, it could be for worse...  The paranoia of the weather-model-codependent junky most certainly assumes the latter, but the reality is... that could go either way. 

As for NNE ... it's possible this f's them out much fan-fair, too.  Although, return flow upglide/Mountain forcing would probably do a number on the N slope country up there ...but that's almost a different beast altogether.  The 12z NAM (thankfully the most reversible of all guidance... heh) actually does something similar to this... by blossoming the new over-running/b-leaf shield over western NS ... even sparing much of Maine.  It's incredible... I admit, how proficiently this this is making all of our Meteorological insights correct, while finding ways to get it down without rewarding anyone.  It's easier if you just laugh about it ...

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15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s 1-3” south .. Prob a lot of 2” pike south and 3” north . Pretty easy one 

 

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This one is a done deal for more than C-1" for a lot of the area and will be gone a few hours later. Congrats NNE. 

One of these is not like the other

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What a shellacking on the 12z GFS for VT, NNH, Mtns and Northern Maine as that low bombs to 980mb just south of Eastport

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1 minute ago, alex said:

Not sure this is the right thread but off to a good start here, heavier than I expected. Eyeing about an inch so far. 

lol, Its not, Snow squalls in the mtns and foothills associated with the cold front coming thru today, Not this next one.

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That was the old map that had an earlier cutoff...the updated one is much more robust...well...maybe not...

 

78FBB449-BBA9-4489-B3B4-AF4A2A40CE66.png

Looks dangerous around here, hope the town plows can keep up.

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Ok gfs def trended south there with the second wave. That's a little more interesting...get another tick and there could be something shovelable for N MA. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok gfs def trended south there with the second wave. That's a little more interesting...get another tick and there could be something shovelable for N MA. 

I know its the GGEM, But that even appeared to be similar or a tic or so south of the GFS.

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

They have probably dropped more inches of salt in many towns than they have had inches of snow

My car is still partially salt covered from my trip to Gore Mountain. Barely any snow OTG except past Albany.

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