frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Continued pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I remember Winchester got like 7" from that storm. NW VA was like 5-8" in general from that storm. I was in front royal at the time. Perhaps there was a little less there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: LP and 540's move about 300 miles south of 6z. BIG step....but what does one believe? disclaimer - OP run way out there, but nice to see for soothing of the mind. Stuck on 198. Its thinking "this cant be right, we were told no snow for January for those MA ass clowns...check with the boys upstairs before we go to 204" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 kinda squashes everything so net result is bad but check out this flow right here... Pattern change coming early? Bob, Wonder if we go to this and faster . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Stuck on 198. Its thinking "this cant be right, we were told no snow for January for those MA ass clowns...check with the boys upstairs before we go to 204" It's out on NCEP. Weak sauce verbatim. An inch or 3 west of the cities then change to rain. Those details are silly of course. Seems to be an evolving situation... for the better... for the first time this winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 As Bob and pasnownut pointed out, much improved look at H5 today vs previous runs. Less ridging out in front and a flatter wave which is helping to suppress and keep it from cutting as dramatically as it was a few runs ago. Certainly something to track besides the pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Bob, Wonder if we go to this and faster . I’ve been thinking the pattern flip will be quite sudden and that guidance shows exactly how it could happen. I don’t think this is going to be a 3 week gradual pattern change but heck, what do I know especially this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If SOI goes too negative, wouldnt that argue for suppression or would MJO in COD mute that response as cold may not overwhelm? I don't think so. I would have to dig deeper if we wanted to get a scientifically significant conclusion but when I was researching for my winter outlook back in the fall I remember some of our best snow periods during a nino were with a really negative SOI. The snowy period in Feb 58, Jan 66, Feb 78, Jan and Feb 87, Feb 2003, and I remember seeing that Feb 2010 and Jan 2016 were extremely negative SOI's so just from that, albeit limited analysis, I would say I am not worried about a negative SOI hurting our snow chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The anomaly is beginning to take on the appearence of the seasonals across the mid lattiutudes and extending across the Atlantic to the pond. See SECOND animation for this ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 kinda squashes everything so net result is bad but check out this flow right here... Pattern change coming early? Possibly tho not convincingly. Been cautioning folks looking too far ahead and missing positive changes in the mid range right under our noses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 GFS basically says pattern change starts next week and never lets up. Nice run and a fantasy near miss in fantasyland. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 15 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I was in front royal at the time. Perhaps there was a little less there. Front Royal had 8" Also had 6" on the 14th that December...one of the best snow Decembers in your area and you don't really remember it... kinda backs up my point. lol Just messin with ya a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Bob, Wonder if we go to this and faster . Like the flip of a switch. Fuse is lit how long til it reaches the powder keg seems to be the only question remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's out on NCEP. Weak sauce verbatim. An inch or 3 west of the cities then change to rain. Those details are silly of course. Seems to be an evolving situation... for the better... for the first time this winter... I'd take a doubling or tripling of my annual total to-date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’ve been thinking the pattern flip will be quite sudden and that guidance shows exactly how it could happen. I don’t think this is going to be a 3 week gradual pattern change but heck, what do I know especially this winter. The tanking SOI and dramatic sudden pressure increases on the PV with wind reversals are dead giveaways....this wont be gradual. Hopefully it sticks around like the weeklies suggest and this isn't merely a transient flip which i do not believe to be the case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Good to see you Tombo. You go into depth at something that I've been thinking from a broader perspective. Only diff is that in my mind, the SSW is already underway for about 2 weeks, so with "normal" lag time, my wonder is if we may be starting to see the effects in LR guidance (beyond168) as cold is starting to show up in the NH or do you think it too early? From looking at the eps and gefs, there certainly seems to be an increase in hgts across the arctic domain signalling some possible -NAM effects from the SSW. The strat observe site only goes off the 0z gfs I believe, but it still isn't coupling with the stratosphere. By the 20th though you can see how the +nam area is starting to sink and maybe signalling some coupling possibly after the 20th. One thing I like about this ssw event is,usually with these type of events this time of year you get your wind reversal then shorty after the PV recovers. This isn't happening at all. The winds continue to be easterly at 10mb out to mid january. So we certainly have time for it to downwell still. Last Feb ssw took about 3 weeks for us to start feeling the effects. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’ve been thinking the pattern flip will be quite sudden and that guidance shows exactly how it could happen. I don’t think this is going to be a 3 week gradual pattern change but heck, what do I know especially this winter. I had a 'gut feeling' the pattern would change sooner than recent guidance was depicting. I mentioned in a post yesterday evening that the next couple runs of the EPS would have people feeling giddy in here. Still, I was a bit surprised to see the sudden shift to more favorable on the 0z run this morning. The op runs today also seem to be hinting at a quicker flip as well. Maybe the models are playing catch up and really just now locking on to whats been going on with the Strat and MJO events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Come on guys.. we can do this. The stratosphere warming correlates to Jan 25 - Feb 25, before a blocking regime you'll usually have warmth, in this type of global pattern stratosphere warming or something. We have a near perfect North Pacific, but SOI is too negative. This usually evens out by a big storm in a few weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The most important GEFS run in the history of 2019 and it's delayed... My insult is injured 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The most important GEFS run in the history of 2019 and it's delayed... My insult is injured 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The most important GEFS run in the history of 2019 and it's delayed... My insult is injured this abrupt change for the better is even spooking the models...they cant believe it either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, tombo82685 said: That works and it's not even that far away. I don't expect some magic flip from Pac barf hell to wide open HECS but that mean panel is def not a shutout pattern. Sooner the better... Thanks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Nice!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: From looking at the eps and gefs, there certainly seems to be an increase in hgts across the arctic domain signalling some possible -NAM effects from the SSW. The strat observe site only goes off the 0z gfs I believe, but it still isn't coupling with the stratosphere. By the 20th though you can see how the +nam area is starting to sink and maybe signalling some coupling possibly after the 20th. One thing I like about this ssw event is,usually with these type of events this time of year you get your wind reversal then shorty after the PV recovers. This isn't happening at all. The winds continue to be easterly at 10mb out to mid january. So we certainly have time for it to downwell still. Last Feb ssw took about 3 weeks for us to start feeling the effects. Thanks for the follow up. I also read (and stated) earlier that we may not see a PV recovery, which would likely aid in keeping cold supply available. I guess you could say that the Daughters look to have offspring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Thanks for the follow up. I also read (and stated) earlier that we may not see a PV recovery, which would likely aid in keeping cold supply available. I guess you could say that the Daughters look to have offspring. No problem, the ssw effects right for us aren't as important as the mjo phases will do the job. I think we are going to need it more in feb if/when the mjo may get into unfavorable phase. I think thats what the weeklies were hinting at were effects from the strat for feb. It's something to watch in the coming runs because if they start backing off it's probably because they aren't coupling with the troposphere and sniffing out on the mjo progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 I’d wager January is not a shutout as some were predicting the last few days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 anyone not impressed with the GEFS...may its time to ride the EPS now: edit--thats the GFS. PHEW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I don't even want to think about the emotional state of this board if the next euro run is back to Pacific puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: No problem, the ssw effects right for us aren't as important as the mjo phases will do the job. I think we are going to need it more in feb if/when the mjo may get into unfavorable phase. I think thats what the weeklies were hinting at were effects from the strat for feb. It's something to watch in the coming runs because if they start backing off it's probably because they aren't coupling with the troposphere and sniffing out on the mjo progression. Makes sense and agree. PSU/Bob were tooting the same horn last week in that we do not NEED the SSW to get us where we wanna be. To that point I totally agree, but as we all got juked last week my mind was searching for ways to get into a colder regime and was hoping that the promise of a flip to better was in part because of the downwelling to the troposphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I don't even want to think about the emotional state of this board if the next euro run is back to Pacific puke. Well I mean...I'm not sure if anyone has gotten "too high" yet given all the bad runs we have had, so...the emotional swing shouldn't be THAT drastic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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