Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

Recommended Posts

This Bonnie Raitt song epitomizes my relationship with this winter....since this is now the banter thread....

”I can’t make you love me”

Turn down the lights
Turn down the bed
Turn down these voices inside my head
Lay down with me
Tell me no lies
Just hold me close, don't patronize
Don't patronize me

'Cause I can't make you love me if you don't
You can't make your heart feel something it won't
Here in the dark, in these final hours
I will lay down my heart and I'll feel the power
But you won't, no you won't
'Cause I can't make you love me, if you don't
I'll close my eyes, then I won't see
The love you don't feel when you're holding me
Morning will come and I'll do what's right
Just give me till then to give up this fight
And I will give up this fight
'Cause I can't make you love me if you don't
You can't make your heart feel something it won't
Here in the dark, in these final hours
I will lay down my heart and I'll feel the power
But you won't, no you won't
'Cause I can't make you love me, if you don't
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 4.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Amazing to think that if you add up all the snow DC has had from Jan 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2016, Feb 2017. That 4 months of prime winter.

They've had a grand total of 2.8 inches.

With any luck, we can add 2 more months to the list soon! A full half year of prime winter and not crack 5 inches! Can it be done?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the next rain event on the Euro ends just as the New Year begins --- a good sign??

Is that wraparound snow the Euro is showing early morning to the NW of DC on the 5th; the Low appears to be well past us. 

Is the January 8/9th storm still forming or is it that clipper moving across New England? 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, frd said:

In addition to above from Isotherm, just posted 

The momentum response which many of us have been forecasting/discussing for weeks is occurring -- strong FT surge, EAMT rising rapidly, and AAM tendency, rising sharply. This coinciding w/ MJO propagation through dateline. The much advertised tropospheric alterations in progress.

boiled down....i think we have our SSW event starting to make it into regions that will start to show up on tellies and weather maps  for your perusing pleasure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

boiled down....i think we have our SSW event starting to make it into regions that will start to show up on tellies and weather maps  for your perusing pleasure.

I agree. Many things coming together right now in real time and over the next few days to a week.

The odds of an historical wintery period to me is still there. I agree with Bob, I am bored too, but there is a lot to observe the next few weeks. Learn from it for future winters.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, frd said:

I agree. Many things coming together right now in real time and over the next few days to a week.

The odds of an historical wintery period to me is still there. I agree with Bob, I am bored too, but there is a lot to observe the next few weeks. Learn from it for future winters.  

Yup.  This does suck but you bring up a great point, that while not all great patterns end up great.....not all bad patterns end up horrible.  Mind you it'd be nice to eek out some snow in the next week to ease the pain of waiting for the "read deal".

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What happened to the coastal storm chances increasing when the -NAO is switching to positive? And with the model volatility and the SOI stuff going on, I'm hanging with the Jan. 3rd/4th storm until Tuesday.

-NAO is offset by the awful pacific it seems. Then when we have a good Pacific its always offset by an awful NAO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow - came back after a couple hour break and had a popup indicating 81+ replies in this thread alone (2-1/2 pages worth).  For a fleeting moment I thought "at last, that must mean something good" only to read through the thread and get the flood of desperation.  Sigh...  

That video from AM with the big Hudson Bay LP just sitting and spinning is interesting.  It's feeding a train of LPs up through Greenland.  If we could just get that to drift towards 50/50 and bring the Nrn Jet S a few hundred miles...  a big if.  

Wonder if the current state of extremes in various factors is just too much for the models to handle given the large variance run to run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS isn't awful in the long range. But everytime it looks like the PAC is gonna back off it crashes another trough into the west to pop more ridging in the east. 

Pac has been relentless since the good pattern since the first 10 days of Dec. We hoped the flip would be shortlived but here we are with 2 weeks behind us and 2 weeks in front of us on the panels. I'm not going to trust any long range looks for the better. The base state has shown itself and will prob continue longer than we think/hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...