Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I think a big snowstorm is out of the question for this weekend but I think we still have a chance of a few inches. Right now SNJ southward looks good. Can't get anything to work out this year.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: Can't get anything to work out this year.... Very frustrating 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Also don't see any brutally cold air in the long range. When was the last time NYC had a January where a day didn't stay below freezing? (edited) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, TriPol said: Also don't see any brutally cold air in the long range. When was the last time NYC had a January where a day didn't fall below freezing? The cold January temp forecasts are in trouble....might finish the month at or above average.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The NAM soundings at 72-84 are not that dry. It’s too far out for any accuracy but if we end up that saturated it won’t be hard to get some snow if that area of overrunning that many models snow verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 22 minutes ago, TriPol said: Also don't see any brutally cold air in the long range. When was the last time NYC had a January where a day didn't stay below freezing? (edited) I think Friday will stay below freezing in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, TriPol said: Also don't see any brutally cold air in the long range. When was the last time NYC had a January where a day didn't stay below freezing? (edited) This may be one of the only times that NYC couldn’t beat the November monthly low temperature by January 15th. Models still not showing cold enough air for NYC to drop below 15 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM soundings at 72-84 are not that dry. It’s too far out for any accuracy but if we end up that saturated it won’t be hard to get some snow if that area of overrunning that many models snow verifies This situation reminds me of a Clipper that doesn't have any huge dynamics supporting it just a large area of light snow with totals in the 1 -3 , 2-4 category - most folks around here are not used to these type of events because it seems like many of the events in recent years have been dynamic in nature - it is also important like you mentioned that we have that saturation develop early so the virga is limited at the beginning of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: This may be one of the only times that NYC couldn’t beat the November monthly low temperature by January 15th. Models still not showing cold enough air for NYC to drop below 15 degrees. would be amazing if the Thanksgiving cold snap ended up being the coldest of the winter.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: would be amazing if the Thanksgiving cold snap ended up being the coldest of the winter.... At least we know that the current 15 degree low in November is safe for a while longer. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/09/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 09| THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14| TUE 15| WED 16 CLIMO X/N 49| 31 43| 21 33| 20 31| 26 36| 25 37| 27 39| 30 40 24 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: At least we know that the current 15 degree low in November is safe for a while longer. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/09/2019 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 09| THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14| TUE 15| WED 16 CLIMO X/N 49| 31 43| 21 33| 20 31| 26 36| 25 37| 27 39| 30 40 24 38 I doubt it holds through January - after the 25th old man winter will begin flexing his muscle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: would be amazing if the Thanksgiving cold snap ended up being the coldest of the winter.... It won't. I don't understand how people can't see the pattern change, it's clear as day. Case in point, today's MJO forecasts are fully in the COD and do not emerge near Phase 5/6. +PNA/-AO to stay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The ICON looks oddly flat to me from 60-84. I think we may get hit by that intital push of snow and the second wave may end up being a brutal miss almost everywhere north of VA. There is potential here for DCA to get missed by both waves based on some things the last two model cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: I doubt it holds through January - after the 25th old man winter will begin flexing his muscle Just 15 short days away again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Just 15 short days away again.... patience is a virtue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: patience is a virtue certainly for this year....imagine someone saying after the 11/15 storm that we'd go a full 2 months before our next measureable snowfall.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It won't. I don't understand how people can't see the pattern change, it's clear as day. Case in point, today's MJO forecasts are fully in the COD and do not emerge near Phase 5/6. +PNA/-AO to stay. I would be surprised if the pattern isn’t really great from 1/25-2/28. That doesn’t mean we will get snow though. I’m not sure about March. Some of the especially lousy El Niño December’s have lousy Marches. I think someone posted the closer to 0 or above that the SOI averages in an El Niño December the worse March is. It’s not a big sample size though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: certainly for this year....imagine someone saying after the 11/15 storm that we'd go a full 2 months before our next measureable snowfall.... that person would have been chased out of here - the only benefit of this pattern is the extra $$ we have saved in energy costs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: that person would have been chased out of here - the only benefit of this pattern is the extra $$ we have saved in energy costs... agree-only real cold period was the early December cold for 7-8 days A few cold days this weekend, but it doesn't last... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12Z suite not so good so far. GFS gives NYC nada with the 1" line from about Philly to Toms River. The CMC has the 1" line from about Trenton to Belmar with NYC getting a dusting. But the fabulous GFS-FV3, which may be our only hope, still has the 2.5" line (0.25" LE) along 78 into NYC and has most of NJ south of there in the 2.5-5.0" swath with the 5" line (0.50" LE) running from maybe Wilmington to LBI. If the Euro/UK don't "save" us, WSWs (Weenie Suicide Watches) may need to be issued for Phily to NYC, including most of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The Para and maybe NAM are pretty much the only things going for us right now. On the plus side, the GFS, Para, Euro, and CMC are all showing a big storm for next weekend (although the CMC and Euro aren't quite in range for our area). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: I doubt it holds through January - after the 25th old man winter will begin flexing his muscle I would agree with you on that. Only 3 DJF met winters failed to drop below 15 in NYC. 1869 is missing too many days to be valid. Warmest DJF minimums in NYC 1 2002-02-28 19 0 2 1932-02-29 18 0 3 1869-02-28 17 31 4 1975-02-28 15 0 5 2017-02-28 14 0 - 2006-02-28 14 0 - 2001-02-28 14 0 - 1998-02-28 14 0 9 2012-02-29 13 0 - 2010-02-28 13 0 - 1937-02-28 13 0 - 1902-02-28 13 0 - 1891-02-28 13 0 - 1890-02-28 13 0 15 1983-02-28 12 0 - 1980-02-29 12 0 - 1953-02-28 12 0 18 2013-02-28 11 0 - 1992-02-29 11 0 - 1933-02-28 11 0 - 1913-02-28 11 0 - 1911-02-28 11 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 You would think a KU was coming based on this 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: You would think a KU was coming based on this Then it does this: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would be surprised if the pattern isn’t really great from 1/25-2/28. That doesn’t mean we will get snow though. I’m not sure about March. Some of the especially lousy El Niño December’s have lousy Marches. I think someone posted the closer to 0 or above that the SOI averages in an El Niño December the worse March is. It’s not a big sample size though That’s what I mentioned a couple weeks about the post 1/21 period; cold and dry. I always felt that was the threat, especially with a TPV nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 58 minutes ago, RU848789 said: 12Z suite not so good so far. GFS gives NYC nada with the 1" line from about Philly to Toms River. The CMC has the 1" line from about Trenton to Belmar with NYC getting a dusting. But the fabulous GFS-FV3, which may be our only hope, still has the 2.5" line (0.25" LE) along 78 into NYC and has most of NJ south of there in the 2.5-5.0" swath with the 5" line (0.50" LE) running from maybe Wilmington to LBI. If the Euro/UK don't "save" us, WSWs (Weenie Suicide Watches) may need to be issued for Phily to NYC, including most of NJ. No reason for people to be disappointed. Only a run or two showed this being a big hit for our area. Most people were never on board anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: No reason for people to be disappointed. Only a run or two showed this being a big hit for our area. Most people were never on board anyway. Yea a couple of GFS runs showed the goods but we mostly know better than biting with little support across the board and with the winter we’ve had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, romba said: Yea a couple of GFS runs showed the goods but we mostly know better than biting with little support across the board and with the winter we’ve had so far. Probably have to hope this idea of the later coastal is correct. Some GEFS members show it. If that does happen it’s possible the confluence gets out of the way and this comes up the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I really hope this pattern change comes. It has been a pretty dreary winter so far. Even people that hate snow are saying they want snow instead of rain. It has been a truly incredible pattern though when you think about it. Could you imagine if we had a summer where we had a week of 80 in May, and then nothing but the 50s and 60s until the end of July with rain every other day? Pretty incredible when you think about it like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I would agree with you on that. Only 3 DJF met winters failed to drop below 15 in NYC. 1869 is missing too many days to be valid. Warmest DJF minimums in NYC 1 2002-02-28 19 0 2 1932-02-29 18 0 3 1869-02-28 17 31 4 1975-02-28 15 0 5 2017-02-28 14 0 - 2006-02-28 14 0 - 2001-02-28 14 0 - 1998-02-28 14 0 9 2012-02-29 13 0 - 2010-02-28 13 0 - 1937-02-28 13 0 - 1902-02-28 13 0 - 1891-02-28 13 0 - 1890-02-28 13 0 15 1983-02-28 12 0 - 1980-02-29 12 0 - 1953-02-28 12 0 18 2013-02-28 11 0 - 1992-02-29 11 0 - 1933-02-28 11 0 - 1913-02-28 11 0 - 1911-02-28 11 0 no winter had its coldest temperature i9n November...1932 came the closest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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