NycStormChaser Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: There have been a few tornado warnings out in western PA this morning. One of the big stories since October has been these unusually steep mid-level lapse rates. Had these occurred in the warm season, we would have had MDT risk days. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=lr75&rh=2019010812&fh=18&r=conus&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: One of the big stories since October has been these unusually steep mid-level lapse rates. Had these occurred in the warm season, we would have been talking about MDT risk days that we seldom get. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=lr75&rh=2019010812&fh=18&r=conus&dpdt= PA had its third largest tornado outbreak in history in October. Had that setup occurred in the spring or summer it could have been a May 31 1998 redux. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-May_1998_tornado_outbreak_and_derecho#May_31_New_York_and_Pennsylvania_tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: PA had its third largest tornado outbreak in history in October. Had that setup occurred in the spring or summer it could have been a May 31 1998 redux. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-May_1998_tornado_outbreak_and_derecho#May_31_New_York_and_Pennsylvania_tornadoes Yeah, we could also have been talking longer lived stronger tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Gefs is alot more amplified than the op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is alot more amplified than the op Yup, a lot of the members are tucked into the coast at 0z Monday. Also most members have the low moving NE rather than due east as at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 hours ago, TriPol said: So the GFS caved to the EURO? See the 12z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The 12Z GFS-FV3 appears to be AWOL (not on TT or Pivotal at least) - maybe being held hostage during the shutdown, lol. We need an APB ASAP on the AWOL GFS-FV3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Had a nice coating of snow/ice this morning. Untreated surfaces were slick and the car was glazed over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Mesos continue to look good for convection tonight. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is a good look 5 days out.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: This is a good look 5 days out.... Nice Cody Parkey lean to it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Didn’t NOAA put a statement out yesterday about the GFS having major problems that they can’t fix due to the shutdown? I’m trying to find the actual article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Nice Cody Parkey lean to it. Yes, better than Scott Norwood lean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Anything on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I think a moderate event is definitely on the table. Even a little bit of phasing could potentially lead to a 4-6" type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, David-LI said: Anything on the euro? The storm is considerably more organized compared to the 0z, but it's still south through 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: A compromise between the CMC/GFS and more southerly EURO/UK would yield only lighter precipitation getting this far north.There is bound to be a sharp cutoff with some much HP over New England. Agreed. But a late north trend like we've seen so often could put the coast into moderate precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: The storm is considerably more organized compared to the 0z, but it's still south through 120. Some light snow up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The Euro took a big step towards the GFS and away from the UKIE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Guys help me out again where can I view the Ukie ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 never mind I found it http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=fr&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=144&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The Euro took a big step towards the GFS and away from the UKIE 3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Guys help me out again where can I view the Ukie ? Speaking of which, why is the 12z UKIE not out yet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Speaking of which, why is the 12z UKIE not out yet? It’s similar to the Euro. The French site has it. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s similar to the Euro. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Impossible to know at this range when a Canadian vort is going to rotate down. If the timing is off even 6 hours the storm comes further north. Also possible since we have northern energy in Canada largely playing a role here that the NAM and GFS might sniff this out more accurately inside 72 than the Euro which sometimes struggles with energy up in Canada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 EPS looks a bit better w/ the confluence in the NE Sunday; more QPF on the mean as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The EPS just lept into the GEFS camp... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s similar to the Euro. The French site has it. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Didn't see North America maps/data on that site, unless I'm just missing it. Also it is odd that the English UK meteocentre site doesn't have the 12Z UK run from today - again, unless I missed that too, lol. Always found the UK site to be confusing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Alot of leaning members to the left on the eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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