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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

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Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Lol; 11 inches for Orangeburg, 1 for western upstate! This will change 100 times of course, but you just have to laugh...

11"?!?! Im gonna faint.  

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Jump on the bandwagon while you still can!

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8 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

we all know how this ends up it it verifies......200 miles north of where it is today......

If it ends up 200 miles north, I'd say by definition it didn't verify.

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5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Yeah, your a lock for the frontal passage snow Wednesday, so enjoy!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, your a lock for the frontal passage snow Wednesday, so enjoy!

Nobody in the Southeast is ever a lock for frontal passage snow. lol

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8 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Aren’t most op models showing this to some degree? GFSv3, GFS,CMC, Euro? It’s not like Euro is on an island 

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14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Aren’t most op models showing this to some degree? GFSv3, GFS,CMC, Euro? It’s not like Euro is on an island 

Er.....No. Not even close.

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48 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Mr. Debbie Downer

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56 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Get outta here with your fancy logic and reasonable opinions.

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59 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Since when did we believe the GFS?  Most i know shows the Euro outlook, i know Spann does even though he uses the GFS for reference mostly

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There is some ensemble support for a system at least being in the gulf during that time period. Some suppressed, some warm and wet, some without it, and a handful with snow. At this lead time I just want to see the general idea that there could be a system down there, that’s good enough for me. First place any of us even seen the Feb 1st system was on the EPS a couple days ago. 

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16 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Sorry it's already 2:54! 

:P

Couldn't resist...

 

6e8f0c08352910fb810a15e179020148.jpg

Don't post this stuff......  orangeburgwx will have a storm thread up within the hour.... 

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17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Sorry it's already 2:54! 

:P

Couldn't resist...

 

6e8f0c08352910fb810a15e179020148.jpg

Its got the perfect 'snow hole' right in the Western Upstate, so it must be accurate!

 

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3 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

Since when did we believe the GFS?  Most i know shows the Euro outlook, i know Spann does even though he uses the GFS for reference mostly

The Euro has a tendency to be overamped beyond 96 since it’s upgrade 4 or so years ago 

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Just now, PGAWx said:

Incredible amount of excitement/ buzz on the other board about this.  

At least until the next Model runs, or when Orangeburgwx starts a thread about it...

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