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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Not sure about this one. I'll put my hopes on it, but not my money. It's going to take a perfect setup and strength of the low. One nice thing, if it strengthens as the GFS depicts (especially from 0z last night) there would be a good source of cold air to get pulled in. But that's the key, get pulled in; again we'll need this low to be perfectly placed (to our SE) and strong (..bombing off the coast).  

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I keep thinking this is another GFS amped system (similar to the last event). I suppose it good the other models show the storm (..much weaker). As others have said, the euro is close.   

 

RAH:

The forecast for next weekend remains uncertain as there have been inconsistencies from run to run of the ECMWF and GFS as well as their respective ensemble counterparts. GFS and GEFS solutions have been depicting a very deep upper trough and associated surface low moving through the Southeast. EC and ECENS have maintained a similar idea but much less intense. Today`s 00Z ECMWF is depicting an even weaker upper trough than before, but does continue the idea of weak coastal cyclogenesis off the South Carolina coast. This solution would bring some rain to the area Saturday and Sunday but nothing significant. NBM PoPs during this period are near climo and until a more clear consensus can be reached, sticking with its low impact forecast for next weekend with slight chances of rain and above freezing temperatures seems like the best approach.

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22 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

First time seeing that site, give me some help here. The graph for snow says 0 for CAE, but the precip chance shows otherwisec79b7acb814feac653a63d0af78996b7.jpg

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

I'd say there's just about a 0% chance south of 20 and east of 77 with this event. 

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12z gfs running, out to 108 the energy out west has a different look than last run. This is gonna be a big run for somebody just hope it’s the southeast

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1 minute ago, HKY1894 said:

12z gfs running, out to 108 the energy out west has a different look than last run. This is gonna be a big run for somebody just hope it’s the southeast

No great lakes low as it approaches either, that should help things. 

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

No great lakes low as it approaches either, that should help things. 

Cold air push is slightly better on the 12z run at 132 compared to the 6z at 138.

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GFS with an OK but not great run. The ULL is encouraging. The red flag here was the overall strength of the ULL coming in- about 6dm higher At the ULL core than previous runs. I will continue to bang this drum until we get to mesoscale models- more convective feedback issues here- check out the MCS that goes from Miami to Bermuda in the span of 24 hours. That’s a feature that both impacts the behavior of the entire system and probably won’t happen.

No reason to abandon ship here but some colder runs would be nice.

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12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Well, GFS up to its old tricks of showing a storm but losing the battle with the UKMET and ECMWF. Fun times. Marginal cold equals rain 99% of the time.

Don't agree with that assessment of GFS vs. UKMET/ ECMWF. 

The GFS continues to be much more robust with the 500mb feature than the Euro. There's just much more vorticity/ energy in the GFS version of the feature than on other models.

The GFS ends up closing that off and tracking it in a slightly different fashion each run, but the theme of the disturbance being much more potent on the GFS continues. 

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8 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

GFS with an OK but not great run. The ULL is encouraging. The red flag here was the overall strength of the ULL coming in- about 6dm higher At the ULL core than previous runs. I will continue to bang this drum until we get to mesoscale models- more convective feedback issues here- check out the MCS that goes from Miami to Bermuda in the span of 24 hours. That’s a feature that both impacts the behavior of the entire system and probably won’t happen.

No reason to abandon ship here but some colder runs would be nice.

Yes I concur with this as well. That is a very odd progression of the way a LP would behave and convective feedback has been an issue with a rapidly deepening storm such as this one. 

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Actually tracks even further south than the 18z (!) but has a s/w moving across Canada that wipes out the HP.  We'll see what the Euro & UKMET have to say next.  Confident to say this scenario that the 12z shows ain't happening.

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Good discussion today guys.

Wow: "...but has a s/w moving across Canada that wipes out the HP."---This for sure. ----our weather gremlin

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18 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

BIG jump for the Canadian!!!

 

It's a start. 

But wants to hang on too much energy over MN,WI,MI.

That little UL will be potentially a problem. Not allowing enough energy to swing south. gem_z500_vort_us_23.png

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