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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist??  
gfs_asnow_eus_54.png&key=fe7d10395d8c24692b78a080843b03f78c4b86643876e6eb91d154b0c877c173



And I’m sure ‘Charlotte Stories’ will have an article titled, ‘Charlotte may have historic White Christmas’ with the map included... ugh


.

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3 hours ago, jjwxman said:

Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist??  

gfs_asnow_eus_54.png

So much for my last minute Christmas shopping.  Somebody track this day by day for the next 13 days and lets do a post mortem on just how bad this crapcast actually is.  I'll go with dry and 42° for the day.

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3 hours ago, jjwxman said:

Haha, why is this output method allowed to exist??  

gfs_asnow_eus_54.png

Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37?  Not bad for an Apps Runner.  Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol.  

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Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37?  Not bad for an Apps Runner.  Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol.  
Good thing it includes sleet and ZR, with a 10:1 ratio... If it was 6:1, everybody here will be having New Years in the dark

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk

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4 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

I think there's a definite shot at seeing some sleet/snow mix in with the end of the precip from Durham west on 40 tomorrow morning.

This just in! Good call on the possibility of some flakes!!!!   Not buying the Up to 1 inch, but maybe some mix!!!

.TONIGHT...Rain. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up
to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of snow and rain in the
morning. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s.
Light and variable winds. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

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Just now, JoshM said:

These images from the 18z GFS literally made me LOL

gfs_T2m_seus_46.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_45.png

14 to one ratios geez... and thunder snow??

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Kinda surprising to see the GFS have a similar or close to outcome with that storm for 2 runs in a row... that time frame could be legit though if the blocking sets up

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

I think the time period beginning 10-12 days from now has some promise

Nice to see you post. Speaks on the potential. Takes a near perfect track for the northern viewing area. Low tracks from Columbia to Richmond. Near perfect track climitologically speaking for a massive snow storm for I40 north coupled with a HP anchored up around the Toronto area supplying us some fresh cold air from Canadian origins. God I hope that comes to fruition. I always feel like these long range precursors from multiple model suites have some type of legitimacy behind them and signal that some of the biggest storms for the area have a rhyme and reason behind them.

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6 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37?  Not bad for an Apps Runner.  Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol.  

LOL. That map is so ridiculous. Not only that, but any time a map shows GSP being the snowfall bullseye FOR THE ENTIRE NATION, you know it's total BS right off the bat! 

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12z GFS still bringing a big storm of some sorts , SNOW/ICE/RAIN depending on location the weekend before Christmas.... still plenty of time to iron out the details of that possibility 

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I still like the setup the GFS shows in 9-10 days... 50/50 low and rather robust wave trekking across the south.  Verbatim it's too warm  but if that 50/50 low can trend a bit stronger to build in the HP we'd be in business.  Euro, while not showing this exact storm, does show lower height field off Newfoundland and Greenland blocking.  Getting that upper low there is key to bring down the cold.  The STJ is full throttle so just like last winter, we are not in need of bring in the precip.

Fz6dn4A.png

 

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^ Yeah guys, the GEFS at 500mb shows some nice features here.  Ideally for a colder and more suppressed setup for us, the 'inflection point' or transition between the negative anomalies over SE Canada and the positive anomalies over Greenland and Davis Strait would be closer to the U.S., but it's still pretty good here overall, and it's the type of setup that could trend south and colder over time due to the block (unlike the setup for our storm tomorrow).

3lDy9tO.gif

 

Here's the storm traversing the south with the freezing lines on the ensemble mean draped thru parts of TN and NC

g8IFmjU.gif

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The setup the week of the 20th is certainly intriguing. A lot of moving pieces but I do especially like the blocking showing up, as outlined above, and the NAO going from strongly positive to neutral (or perhaps negative). The southern storm track from the GFS isn't bad, just need cold air transport. I think there is potential.

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Seems like pretty much everything has been cutting for a couple years now, so just to see that storm track on the GFS is encouraging. Just a little bit stronger push on the cold air and we'd be in business. 

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Could be a much needed soaker for the end of the week.

When all is said and done, total liquid precipitation 
for the period Thursday night through Friday night could range from 
an inch to an inch and a half in most places.

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Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a :grinch:.  We shall see I guess.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

"For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm."

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11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a :grinch:.  We shall see I guess.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

"For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm."

LOL

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Outside of the occasional 1-2 day cold shot, could it be another Death Ridge for the win??  One more week of nothingburger means we are into January and crossing our fingers we nail something down in the 10 week period to mid March.  The line to the cliff begins now.

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18z gfs has a really nice setup for 12/21, verbatim it's 35 and rain for the north of 40 crowd but that has the look of a classic miller A snowstorm as modeled which is probably incorrect.

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So what are the realistic things we need to hope for to get this thing colder? Better placement of the 50/50 and the HP? Slightly better track? Little of both? Be nice to get the Euro to look similar. 

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So what are the realistic things we need to hope for to get this thing colder? Better placement of the 50/50 and the HP? Slightly better track? Little of both? Be nice to get the Euro to look similar. 
Everything combined... But GEFS should paint a better picture

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GEFS is not in agreement with the OP... most members hav the sfc low much slower and weaker as a slider

qoXFyKJ.gif

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The GEFS is trending nicely (including the 18z run).  However, the EPS and CMC Ens aren't dropping all of the closed upper low over North Central Canada down into SE Canada, and not showing nearly as nice of a Davis Strait block & 50/50 low couplet...so that needs to change.  I did see that the EPS Control run was quite suppressed and cold along the east coast.

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