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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Thinking the FV3 is overdoing the high strength and the duration of it.  If it ends up weaker, like I suspect it will, then it needs to end up being quite a bit farther south, which I don't think is possible given the pattern.

Agreed .... The FV3 Will have to have some support from the others before I fall into that camp. That being said, I would like to see it be right this time.

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57 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Agreed .... The FV3 Will have to have some support from the others before I fall into that camp. That being said, I would like to see it be right this time.

V3 starting to fold :rolleyes:

fv3p_ref_frzn_eus_24.png

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One thing that keeps me from buying into the FV3 solution is the CMC.... Usually, it sees cad events very well at this range. As was mentioned earlier, either the FV3 will be hailed as the new king or it will look like the court jester.

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Guys, it has done this multiple times this winter and been nowhere close. Hard to believe we’d replace a model with this one.  Having said that, I hope this is where it redeems itself. 

TW

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I honestly don’t know if we should really expect a model to nail a winter storm from 6+ days out, given the technology we have today.  I think a general pattern, maybe.  But winter storms are so fickle around here, that it seems a little outlandish to expect we’re anywhere close to being able to get that kind of detail nailed down that far out.

With the FV3, I’m interested to see if it gets the general H5 look 5-10 days out better than the current GFS and to see what kind of biases it has, if any.  So far, my understanding is that its scores are not all that great and that it has a cold bias and a bias of overdoing the strength of highs at longer leads.

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46 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z GFS pressing the CAD down a little stronger this time...

132 hours out, I'll take my chances with this

gfs_Td2m_seus_23.png

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Just now, JoshM said:

V3 is now rain and 60s on Tuesday :facepalm:

fv3p_T2m_eus_23.png

We knew it was coming. There was no support from other models, and it had to fall sometime. Of course a lot of us were hoping it would pull a miracle.

It was fun tracking this long shot for the last two days.  

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Just go with a warm bias, for any model, cuz we all know that verifies more often than not.  You need consensus across at least 3 models just to hitch the horse to the wagon.  That still doesnt mean we mount up.  

So was the GFS model extended?  I thought it was slated to end in late Jan / early Feb?

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23 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

So was the GFS model extended?  I thought it was slated to end in late Jan / early Feb?

The government shutdown gave it a little more time to live... 

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Looks like winter is done. All we got here was some light mix back in December and that’s it. Horrible year that was filled with so much hope in November. The euro for the next 10 days looks horrid.

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10 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

Looks like winter is done. All we got here was some light mix back in December and that’s it. Horrible year that was filled with so much hope in November. The euro for the next 10 days looks horrid.

It's not looking good, but I think we will get one more shot by the end of this month. Indices for AO and NAO look like they could go negative in the LR (..but PNA looks to stay negative). Maybe -EPO will balance that some. 

I got lucky with the big snow in December, but it's been a huge disappointment afterwards.   

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16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

It's not looking good, but I think we will get one more shot by the end of this month. Indices for AO and NAO look like they could go negative in the LR (..but PNA looks to stay negative). Maybe -EPO will balance that some. 

I got lucky with the big snow in December, but it's been a huge disappointment afterwards.   

Most years it is 1 good chance in this area at best. I am not shocked that it is really about done at this point.

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1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Most years it is 1 good chance in this area at best. I am not shocked that it is really about done at this point.

We just keep getting the lows to cut to the NW. Not our year. Sad thing, there has been some really cold air to our north. We just couldn't get things to line up right. As others have said, usually we have to thread the needle to get a storm. I swear it seems like a couple weeks back we were threading the needle to not get a storm.  

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Yep, believe winter's over for most of us on this forum unless the models are waaay wrong.

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Right on cue, the NAO looks to go negative at the end of the month, hopefully soon enough to give the SE one more opportunity for a winter storm.  More than likely it just means another cold wet spring.  It seems like I have put down mulch and a aerated my yard in a cold rain each spring for the last 5 years.  LOL

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

  

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Until the trough out west goes away, you can forget it around here.  It just keeps reloading and reloading and reloading.  Wonder why it never does that in the east?

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27 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Until the trough out west goes away, you can forget it around here.  It just keeps reloading and reloading and reloading.  Wonder why it never does that in the east?

Is this what the models and weeklies were actually showing last month for the east?  Is that why the prognosticators were calling for something that has yet to show up? 

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8 hours ago, JoshM said:

V3 is now rain and 60s on Tuesday :facepalm:

fv3p_T2m_eus_23.png

I laughed :lol: Pathetic but predictable. 

Only hope i have of seeing a thing seems to be sunday if enough precip develops since temps/wetbulbs certainly start cold enough....but precip looks so marginal/light we won't be able to take advantage of it.  At least it will likely keep temps down all day and it will feel like winter rather than freaking may. What a sad excuse of a winter where a raw mid to upper 30s day is looked at as some type of victory. 

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Only 15 days out.......:

 

aaaa.jpg

I'm not sure i've ever seen so many fantasy storms on the gfs that never actually materialize than this year. 

Meanwhile, it's freaking 81 here right now. I just can't get over how horrible the winter outlooks have been. Normally when they bust they don't bother me because as i said the other day i never put any stock in them but this year it's really bugged me for some reason. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

Is this what the models and weeklies were actually showing last month for the east?  Is that why the prognosticators were calling for something that has yet to show up? 

Yeah.  They were wrong.  I hope they’re wrong with the duration of this one because if not, we’re done.

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All I see on that map is our area locked in a maximum security prison cell with a brutal SER.

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