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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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3 hours ago, yotaman said:

We typically don't see low 70's and 50's at night until mid October.

I didnt think the sandhills would be that far behind the triad but you are correct.  Went and looked at the averages and you are a solid 3-4 weeks behind us through Sept/Oct.  I need some 50's soon!

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

I didnt think the sandhills would be that far behind the triad but you are correct.  Went and looked at the averages and you are a solid 3-4 weeks behind us through Sept/Oct.  I need some 50's soon!

Per NOAA the daily averages are as follows: (Threw in GSP as a middle ground - actually surprised GSP isn't closer to Gboro norms.) 

                             July 31st                                       August 31st                                      September 30th                                          October 31st 

Greensboro            88/70                                            86/66                                              75/55                                                        66/44

GSP                       90/70                                            87/67                                              78/56                                                        69/46

CAE                       92/72                                            89/69                                              81/59                                                        72/47

New Bern               89/72                                            86/69                                              79/60                                                        71/48

CHS                       91/73                                            88/71                                              81/63                                                        74/52

 

Actually I realized you meant sandhills of NC so I added New Bern. Still, not as much variablity as I thought it would be .

Edit #2 - ok added CHS too.

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1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

While it’s not quite time to turn on the heat, there is no noteworthy heat in site. Mild to meh warmth ahead. 148b4dc6-a8b2-402f-bb44-5787669e00fc_360

That's about as much as we can hope for this time of year. Looking at the LR GFS, it looks to continue pushing fronts/troughs towards the east coast. Hopefully the fronts will get through our area. Also, this should help steer tropical storms away from us.    

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

That's about as much as we can hope for this time of year. Looking at the LR GFS, it looks to continue pushing fronts/troughs towards the east coast. Hopefully the fronts will get through our area. Also, this should help steer tropical storms away from us.    

I am all for that.

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If the GFS is right we will be waiting until at least the 4th week of the month for a shot at a brief cooldown/drier air. Not unusual, but the chances will really start ramping up by the end of the next 6 weeks.

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26 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said:

If the GFS is right we will be waiting until at least the 4th week of the month for a shot at a brief cooldown/drier air. Not unusual, but the chances will really start ramping up by the end of the next 6 weeks.

So much for that August "polar vortex".  Looks like it is skipping off to the Northeast leaving us with basically normal temps, maybe a couple degrees cooler, and dry here in the triad.  I'm just going to wait for mid-Sept to cash in my chips for a cool and crispy, leaf crunching fall.

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3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

So much for that August "polar vortex".  Looks like it is skipping off to the Northeast leaving us with basically normal temps, maybe a couple degrees cooler, and dry here in the triad.  I'm just going to wait for mid-Sept to cash in my chips for a cool and crispy, leaf crunching fall.

My forecast calling for all lower 90s over the next 7 days, would be the first of the month for me. Going above average- the wrong direction. :cry:

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Well despite all the talk last weekend about upcoming troughiness, the next 8 days look to be brutal. Here's to hoping that's the last of the really big heat. Average will feel good after this ( upper 80s over low to mid 90s). 

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I have a trip up to the Vermont mountains next week. GFS is showing a very strong ridge and well above-average highs of 10-20 degrees above normal for this time of year for that area, with a cool down right when I leave.

Honestly it's a cruel joke at this point.

:axe:

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4 hours ago, Tarheel17 said:

I have a trip up to the Vermont mountains next week. GFS is showing a very strong ridge and well above-average highs of 10-20 degrees above normal for this time of year for that area, with a cool down right when I leave.

Honestly it's a cruel joke at this point.

:axe:

Here's hoping the GFS is wrong, as it often is...

On the other end of the spectrum, I got to visit the Wind River Range in Wyoming the week before last.  The first morning I was there, my Kestrel read 37 F as the low temperature in the morning.  Every other morning was in the low 40s.  It's amazing what elevation and latitude can do when working together.  Loved it!

It would be hard to beat western Wyoming for summer weather.  The high prairie is above 6000 feet everywhere, there are hardly any people around, and the mountains are spectacular.  I got to backpack through several snow fields too.  Christmas in July!  :D

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12z Euro came in a good bit wetter than 0z and looks more closer to the GFS at day 7-10,just something to watch for but the GFS has even bigger totals.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019081012_240_480_220.png

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49 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

12z Euro came in a good bit wetter than 0z and looks more closer to the GFS at day 7-10,just something to watch for but the GFS has even bigger totals.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019081012_240_480_220.png

15" for my area? Wow.

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Another dry cold front. This east Coast trough and recent fronts haven't worked out very well for this location in the past 3 weeks. Just 0.58" since 7/24. Three more dry days forecast before the next monsoon sets in.

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From RAH this afternoon:

Looking into Wednesday night into Thursday, this looks like the 
period most likely to receive significant rainfall at this point. In 
fact WPC QPF values for Wednesday and Thursday show a combined 2.5 
to 3 inches of rain possible in the eastern half of the forecast 
area with a sharp gradient of lower values to the northwest. While 
the confidence in the frontal zone being over the area is high, the 
higher totals will ultimately depend upon where the shortwaves 
develop and supply the extra dynamics for enhanced rainfall. With 
more unsettled conditions in place and cloud cover likely to be 
greater, expect temperatures for the rest of the period to drop into 
the mid 80s for afternoon highs.

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CPC out this afternoon with 14 day outlook and is not good if you want a cool down.  Large are of central and eastern US in the deep reds.  They are favoring the European with strong ridging versus GFS and troughiness.  Since the heat always verifies in the long range and long range cold is like pixie dust, I am sure the heat will verify.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

    

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55 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

CPC out this afternoon with 14 day outlook and is not good if you want a cool down.  Large are of central and eastern US in the deep reds.  They are favoring the European with strong ridging versus GFS and troughiness.  Since the heat always verifies in the long range and long range cold is like pixie dust, I am sure the heat will verify.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

    

But, it looks like the east coast is not in the reds, right? The central part of the nation looks to be in the slight risk category. 

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1 hour ago, gman said:

But, it looks like the east coast is not in the reds, right? The central part of the nation looks to be in the slight risk category. 

Yes but with so much of the country AN to our north and west, it won’t make much difference for us unfortunately.  Not a big deal really.  We really don’t start seeing any relief in the SE until after mid month anyway

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12 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yes but with so much of the country AN to our north and west, it won’t make much difference for us unfortunately.  Not a big deal really.  We really don’t start seeing any relief in the SE until after mid month anyway

From all my years of memory, we usually (on average) get our first real Fall cool down after the first week of September. Of course sometimes we get a cool down as early as late August, but normally the heat of summer continues for at least all of August.

At this point, we want to start looking northwards into SW Canada. In the next couple of weeks we should start to see this area cool down. We could even see the first signs of mountain snows in Montana (Glacier, maybe even Yellowstone areas). It doesn't immediately help us but eventually that cool air will build and spread southwards.   

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9 hours ago, FallsLake said:

From all my years of memory, we usually (on average) get our first real Fall cool down after the first week of September. Of course sometimes we get a cool down as early as late August, but normally the heat of summer continues for at least all of August.

At this point, we want to start looking northwards into SW Canada. In the next couple of weeks we should start to see this area cool down. We could even see the first signs of mountain snows in Montana (Glacier, maybe even Yellowstone areas). It doesn't immediately help us but eventually that cool air will build and spread southwards.   

Falls you are correct!  When I said mid month, I meant to specify mid September.  Occasionally we have had cool downs before Mid September but they are rare.  As you said, we can at least start looking to the Northern Rockies and Canada for some cooler air to start showing up there in a couple of weeks.  Even in the record breaking cold of the 76/77 winter I do not remember it being particularly cool in September.  In fact, I remember August 1976 football practice being very hot and it being hot for our games in September.  October of that year, however, it turned quite cool.       

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The EURO has been consistently hinting at a heavy rain setup in Western NC- especially the escarpment for Sunday/Monday. 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019081412_144_480_220.png

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Euro also has a tropical system impact the Mississippi valley heading slowly northeast at day 10. 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019081412_240_498_155.png

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23 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

We used to get August cool spells with highs in the 70s every year.


.

That didn’t work out so well for us last year.  We got lows into the 50’s in august and not again until Mid October.... :/ Would love to not see that repeat again.  

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2 hours ago, GunBlade said:

That didn’t work out so well for us last year.  We got lows into the 50’s in august and not again until Mid October.... :/ Would love to not see that repeat again.  

Well many of us saw lows in the 50s in late July this year. Hope that doesn't mean no more 50s till November this year...

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I'm liking what the 6z GFS is showing in the LR. One nice cool down for this weekend and then another at the end of its run. **RAH states the euro doesn't agree

6z GFS for this midday Saturday (it would be drizzly, but would feel like Fall): 

 

aaag.jpg

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