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stormtracker

December 9/10 Storm

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This isn’t happening. Everything on the northern edge in this airmass will dry up. Suppression is locked in. This is a rare setup where southern VA, NC, northern SC, and the Appalachians get major impacts in early December. Can’t bank on the northern shifts which really are not northern shifts. You are seeing the uncertainty between the southern extent and northern extent of the simulated model precip from run to run. The track and strength of the low itself is locked in. It’s not favorable to our region and will not change. You can will this northern edge all you want, best case scenario in D.C. and the immediate metro to NOVA is flurries. Areas south toward the southern extent of LWX CWA will see accumulating snow and impacts. Areas north will watch their southern neighbors get snow.  The meteorology is simply not there for the majority of our area and you cannot force light lifting mechanisms into a suppressed dry airmass and get meaningful snow. 

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Ya. It’s official. The Brick Wall is the worst way to lose. The usual rain/snow line provides a chance, the mountains are just a long-standing-yet reasonable understanding. The Wall-50 miles short is just an open hand slap. 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1037 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

[snip]

Perhaps the most notable and significant feature affecting the
upcoming system is a compact shortwave diving southeast from the
Hudson Bay vicinity. This shortwave is rotating around a larger
cyclonic gyre centered over southeastern Canada near 60 W. This
upper pattern has acted to enhance confluence over northern New
England southward toward the Mid-Atlantic, which is resulting
in the more west to east low track out to sea to our south.
However, this shortwave feature to the north has appeared to
deepen a bit more than forecast over the last 18-24 hours,
resulting in subsequent subtle downstream height rises. It`s not
much, but it appears it may be just enough to weaken the
confluence near and to our north a touch, allowing a northward
shift in the tight northern edge of the snowfall from low
pressure passing to our south.

12z and 18z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. The
latest 00z nam has stopped the trend, and still has the
gradient between little or now snow vs. more significant snow
south of Interstate 66 in Virginia and US 50 in Maryland. Given
the majority of the guidance showing the gradient across these
areas, headlines have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for
portions of central Virginia with Winter Weather Advisories
across the Virginia Piedmont and central Shenandoah Valley where
confidence is increasing that these areas will be south of the
gradient.

Farther north and east...closer to the gradient confidence was
not high enough to upgrade at this time but this will have to be
monitored overnight. Additional Winter Weather Advisories or
Winter Storm Warnings may be needed.

The most likely forecast was tweaked up slightly from the
afternoon forecast, basically bringing up snowfall totals where
most guidance shows the gradient being to the north. However,
with such a tight gradient nearby this continues to be a
forecast with low certainty across northern Virginia and
central Maryland. A shift just 30 miles or so either way will
have a significant impact on the forecast. See Winter Weather
Page at www.weather.gov/lwx/winter for latest range of
possibility graphics). Since this is a dynamic system with a lot
of moisture and a tight heavy snowfall gradient, staying tuned
to later forecast updates is prudent.

 

27 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

This isn’t happening. Everything on the northern edge in this airmass will dry up. Suppression is locked in. This is a rare setup where southern VA, NC, northern SC, and the Appalachians get major impacts in early December. Can’t bank on the northern shifts which really are not northern shifts. You are seeing the uncertainty between the southern extent and northern extent of the simulated model precip from run to run. The track and strength of the low itself is locked in. It’s not favorable to our region and will not change. You can will this northern edge all you want, best case scenario in D.C. and the immediate metro to NOVA is flurries. Areas south toward the southern extent of LWX CWA will see accumulating snow and impacts. Areas north will watch their southern neighbors get snow.  The meteorology is simply not there for the majority of our area and you cannot force light lifting mechanisms into a suppressed dry airmass and get meaningful snow. 

LOL

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24 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

This is happening.  Perspective is everything.  I am wary of subforum-wide ultimatum posts.  I anticipate snow by 18Z

Sure. Where you live it’ll snow, not up north.

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

Could care less what is written there. At all. 

Guess you dont care then that the zones have snow likely for DCA... 70 percent chance

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

LOL

Could care less what their discussion says. It’s not happening for the immediate D.C. metro to NOVA. You can hook a fire hose up to Ocean City and send it into an imaginary Trowal, still not happening. 

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

At least wait for the euro.

Lol the Euro? For what. Writing has been on the wall since Thursday night. This is over. I’ve seen 100 posts on here all day about northward trends it’s not happening! Let it go. Euro will show nothing more than a sharp cutoff south. Simple! 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Lol the Euro? For what. Writing has been on the wall since Thursday night. This is over. I’ve seen 100 posts on here all day about northward trends it’s not happening! Let it go. Euro will show nothing more than a sharp cutoff south. Simple! 

So where's the line going to be then?  EZF?  Quantico?

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

TTB maps look slightly better than 0z last night.  h5 isobars nudged north hr24 fwiw.

Perhaps better than last night's 0z, but south of 12z. Precip just barely scrapes south of DC as she slides out to sea. 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

So where's the line going to be then?  EZF?  Quantico?

Line of what? Smoking cirrus, dense cirrus, flurries, or accumulating snow? 

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Line of what? Smoking cirrus, dense cirrus, flurries, or accumulating snow? 

accumulating snow of a dusting or greater

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

That’s broad. Dusting or greater is like saying 0.5 to 4 feet

you asked and gave a list... I said accumulating snow. 

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Charlottesville gets into advisory level 3-5 locally to 6, EZF 1-2 locally to 3. Then sharp cutoff. Light precip echoes with flurries into DC and to NOVA best case snow setup. North of there...could even see thinning cirrus over the M/D line

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OK, snow started falling here about 5:30 am, about 90 minutes head of the modeled advance. Hopefully that is a good sign for further north that it is coming in a bit faster and eroding the dry air quicker.

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Snow is arriving earlier than forecasted.  Maybe a good sign for you all up north that the dry air can be overrun faster.  

flurries here right now at 32/23.  Expecting a nice wetbulb once the good stuff gets here. 

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Don’t think I’m going back to Charlottesville. Not confident they verify the WSW. Me not heading back down means they will though. Oh well.


oh lol, it’s already snowing there. that’s what I get. Already looks like it’s hitting a wall on radar too.

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