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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

It doesn't appear to be a static image that is found on their public site.  It's probably safer that way.  Just my assumption.

As natbright posted above, it is from their hazardous weather briefing page. It is located 2/3 of the way down on the left.

https://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief

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It’s a really useful packet. I think all the offices do it?  I only found it because I like to click around sites obsessively :) normally I’m just a reader on here but thought I could help by replying with the link.  

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There is increased uncertainty Monday and Monday night. Low-level
cooling may occur on the backside of the low as it shifts farther
northeast. The models indicate wrap-around moisture but have not
been consistent with the moisture depth and the development and
placement of the cold upper system. Updated to change precip
type to snow showers in the evening...best chance remains to the
north. At least flurries in the south Midlands/CSRA as upper
trough moves over the area. Moisture becomes more shallow after
06z.

 

BAM!

 

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How many winter storms have we had in the southern piedmont in the first half of December that are even close to what the models are predicting? For that matter how many winter storms in NC have been as big as what is being advertised?

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1 minute ago, +nao said:

How many winter storms have we had in the southern piedmont in the first half of December that are even close to what the models are predicting? For that matter how many winter storms in NC have been as big as what is being advertised?

Not since Dec '89

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Just now, ForsythWx said:

18z FV3 Kuchera ☃️

8ECA9EB6-532A-43F8-861B-59ED50595A9B.png

That's just obscene.  First a CAD induced storm, then the UL wraparound.  Snows from overnight Sat/Sun into Tuesday morning

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So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

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Just now, Wow said:

Not since Dec '89

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

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Just now, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

"Southern participants"

 

Bring on 0z!

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Just now, Cornsnow said:

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

Let's ignore climo and enjoy this LATE FALL snow

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

So the 18z Euro is now in, but it only goes out to hr90...and it has improvements for the southern participants of the subforum

It's stronger and farther southwest with the shortwave rolling thru the Great Lakes and feeding into the 50/50 low over the northeast states, and the confluent flow over the NE is a touch stronger thru the run.  Meanwhile, the backside wave looks like it would drop into the trough a little more than the 12z run (just guessing based on the look).  

At the end of the run at hr90, it has heavy precip in N GA with the sfc freezing line past Lake Lanier into NE side of Atlanta, and snow is breaking out in central and western NC into the NE upstate

 

Just out of curiosity grit, where are you getting the 18z version?

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4 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

We also saw a hurricane do something that has never been done before with Florence. 

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18 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

I think me,@SteveVa and[mention=14849]SENC[/mention] are on the outside looking in on this one

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I could definitely see a front-end slushy inch or so for ORF and ECG. Something like the 18z FV3 depicts. There is also a possibility of frozen precip for our area on the back side, but models are still all over the place after the low pops into the Atlantic. AKQ is, unsurprisingly, fairly conservative and calls for all rain. 

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If you guys think these gfs maps are insane, just wait until we get into the NAM Hi-Res range lol... There will likely be some over-dramatic ridiculous totals on it.,..

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I could definitely see a front-end slushy inch or so for ORF and ECG. Something like the 18z FV3 depicts. There is also a possibility of frozen precip for our area on the back side, but models are still all over the place after the low pops into the Atlantic. AKQ is, unsurprisingly, fairly conservative and calls for all rain. 

They’re normally quite conservative, at least if my memory serves me.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

The models are really going against all climatology here. It would be a super rare event if it occurs. I am still tempering my excitement. Still plenty of time for the to collapse in our faces. Hopefully we will be sampling the energy here tomorrow. Still hard for me to think an amped up storm like this will not have huge issues with WAA like always.

Yep, has the Charlotte area ever seen this amount of winter weather being shown....? Not time for this here. 

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1 minute ago, tramadoc said:


They’re normally quite conservative, at least if my memory serves me.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yup, just like most offices in the SE when it comes to winter weather. I was surprised to see that the NWS GSP map was legit, would never expect AKQ crew to do the same 

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RAH is lukewarm at best.  Maybe a few inches along the VA border; zilch everywhere else.  Are the model amounts typically this divorced from the local NWS office?

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1 minute ago, +nao said:

Yep, has the Charlotte area ever seen this amount of winter weather being shown....? Not time for this here. 

Yes I can remember 12 or 13 back in 2004. I have seen 8+ in my area in Mooresville. It could certainly verify. I would be shocked if it turns out to be a 12+ inches. Still plenty of times for the models to start a northerly trend over the next 24-36 hours.

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16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

This might be more realistic.

247459D9-464F-4EE0-AF7C-6FDFEEC5F0F0.thumb.jpeg.c4be7715d0f9c0cbdae8fc154536ca69.jpeg

History has told me there is nothing realistic about Greensboro getting 23" but would love to see it 

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