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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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12 minutes ago, Poimen said:

FV3 ends up climbing the coast and smacking the MA. It looks like a front-end snow for the CAD/favored climo areas of NC, transitioning to freezing rain/sleet, then perhaps rain. 

Oh goodie. :axe:

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Bear in mind that in years past, a reduction of at least 50 percent in the clown maps ends up closer to reality around here. But even with that, there is still a reasonable shot of a widespread 6-12" storm for some on this board (if things remain as they are). Those numbers also seem much more realistic and in line with past events. 

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15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake.  I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need.  Borderline = rain.

Still days away. Models still need to get a handle on the details (like CAD and dew points).

GFS(FV3 similar) Vs NAM at hour 84:

 

aaaa.jpg

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At this point, I feel fairly confident in a front-end snow for the favored climo areas of NC Saturday afternoon/night, yielding at least a few inches...beyond that confidence is low. 

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2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

298ac6f18fde244a1c30553333b81cab.jpg this is big increase compared to 0z


.

I’m used to seeing a snow map like that on just ONE ensemble member and us hoping for that... never the mean. Have we ever had a GEFS mean that nice 5 days out?

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15 minutes ago, Poimen said:

At this point, I feel fairly confident in a front-end snow for the favored climo areas of NC Saturday afternoon/night, yielding at least a few inches...beyond that confidence is low. 

So just the mountains/foothills?

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Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses?
Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out.  I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses?
Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out.  I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.

That's what I remember as well (in particular to Jan 2017 also)

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58 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake.  I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need.  Borderline = rain.

I agree. I'm not buying the GEFS nor EPS means for Wake/Johnston area one bit. We will be looking at an inch of slop with heavy cold rain after that. I need to keep those maps to compare to on Monday. Seen it dozens of times before. Dearth of the -NAO the last few years makes it all dependent on timing in our area of NC so that the cold air and precip get here in unison. There's nothing to lock the cold air in and that doesn't work out 99% of the time for us. LP needs to track further SE. We are too far East for the CAD to save us.

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I'm thinking the CAD is being extremely under modeled at this point.  Most of the globals have our high in near perfect position.  I think we will see the Hi-Res models paint a different picture with regards to sleet/freezing rain once they get in range.

As a general rule, you can normally shave 4 or 5 degrees off whatever the GFS is showing in this time range in a CAD setup. If you do that for this storm it's a devastating ice storm all the way down to Lookouts house.  The GFS is already showing some ice to that point as it is.

 

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GEFS means went nuts at 6z:

8” at Charlotte 

11” at Chapel Hill and RDU

13” at  Lincolnton

14” at Burlington

15” at Greensboro

16” at Hickory

 

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These aren’t just one or two runs skewing results. It’s almost the entire ensemble suite showing double digits at Hickory. Only 4/20 show less than 3” at Chapel Hill. 

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5 minutes ago, ajr said:

That's what I remember as well (in particular to Jan 2017 also)

The HRRR also nailed the warm nose in that Jan 2017 system. 

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I fully believe these totals. The qpf will be there and is modeled by every model. qpf is the last thing we have to worry about with this one. Its all about the thermal profiles, surprising I know. So if you get a snow sounding, your gonna hit the lottery. Conventional wisdom tells all of us to shrug it off, to good to be true and I get that. But all you gotta do at your location is get the sounding and your Gold on this one.

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

I fully believe these totals. The qpf will be there and is modeled by every model. qpf is the last thing we have to worry about with this one. Its all about the thermal profiles, surprising I know. So if you get a snow sounding, your gonna hit the lottery. Conventional wisdom tells all of us to shrug it off, to good to be true and I get that. But all you gotta do at your location is get the sounding and your Gold on this one.

We need the surface temps colder. 32/33 with heavy snow will provide 5/6 to 1 ratios.  

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11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm thinking the CAD is being extremely under modeled at this point.  Most of the globals have our high in near perfect position.  I think we will see the Hi-Res models paint a different picture with regards to sleet/freezing rain once they get in range.

As a general rule, you can normally shave 4 or 5 degrees off whatever the GFS is showing in this time range in a CAD setup. If you do that for this storm it's a devastating ice storm all the way down to Lookouts house.  The GFS is already showing some ice to that point as it is.

 

I agree 100%.  The dewpoint on the NAM at 84 is 10-20 degrees cooler than the GFS.  Now we all know the NAM past 48 hours can be a crap shoot, but these numbers are probably not all that off.

 image.thumb.png.027c364604eae7a46653851b30049adf.png

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2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

At this rate, if trends keep going, everyone outside the mountains will be getting cold cold rain.

What are you talking about?? Lol

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2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

At this rate, if trends keep going, everyone outside the mountains will be getting cold cold rain.

Think before you speak, most if not all models this morning are trending better for many across the board, and the ensemble members are amazing for most.

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4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

At this rate, if trends keep going, everyone outside the mountains will be getting cold cold rain.

Not sure where you're getting this information.

KBUY_2018120406_gefs_snow_384.png

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