Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5.

Some of us had the warm up only lasting  10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period.

So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. 

A 10 day hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. 

This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase.

Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 which lead to our NEG departures. 

You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. 

This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm )  , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking.

Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak.

 

Patience , we go through this every year. 

 

Nothing has changed. 

We do go through this every year, except in years when it snows in Dec. We all know that an early Oct. or Nov snow doesn't mean much ( and they are statistically rare ) but snow less Decembers get everyone nervous. But we had two recent years IIRC, 2015 ad 2016, that delivered after Dec, though 2016 was a one hit wonder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Majority of people had this month being crappy in terms of snow and cold for our area in their winter forecasts.

Really, it has only been actual calendar winter for a few days....way too early to call it quits. If Jan looks the same I'd say things are going to go south, but if IIRC didn't the Feb 2006 blizzard follow a crap pattern? So you never really know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Gfs decides to torch the whole CONUS near mid Jan for good measure.

Yeah I know it's fantasy and Earthlight did say we could see a warm Jan 5-10 period. 

However I'm seeing a lot of forecasters try to make sense of what's happening because I think they're having a tough time grasping it. On a personal note, I have a bad feeling this winter will go down the tubes.

Maybe raindancewx was right about 94/95 & 06/07 being the prime analog years. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

I believe Jan 10 - Feb 20 is the core this year.

Patience , you need to shake off an amplified p5 and that may take until Jan 10.  ( that`s my start date here ) . 

Good luck to all. 

Exactly my thinking, though I would push it towards the 20th for the big show. Cold will be building in Canada and it will be dislodged. I think there will be nervous times ahead but it will all pay off in the end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

12z Gfs decides to torch the whole CONUS near mid Jan for good measure.

Yeah I know it's fantasy and Earthlight did say we could see a warm Jan 5-10 period. 

However I'm seeing a lot of forecasters try to make sense of what's happening because I think they're having a tough time grasping it. On a personal note, I have a bad feeling this winter will go down the tubes.

Maybe raindancewx was right about 94/95 & 06/07 being the prime analog years. 

Ensembles are way different and on cue with earthlight thoughts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Majority of people had this month being crappy in terms of snow and cold for our area in their winter forecasts.

Pure El Niño climatology along with the general warmer and less snowy December trend. 8 out of 10 years  since 1990 with above normal temparatures and below normal snowfall.

El Niño Decembers in NYC since 1990

2018....+1.4....T so far

2015...+13.3....T

2014....+3.0...1.0

2009...-1.6....12.4

2006...+6.1....0.0

2004...+0.9....3.0

2002....-1.5....11.0

1997....+0.7....T

1994.....+4.7....T

1991.....+2.1....0.7

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Pure El Niño climatology along with the general warmer and less snowy December trend. 8 out of 10 years above normal temparatures and below normal snowfall.6.1

El Niño Decembers in NYC since 1990

2018

2015....13.3....T

2014....+3.0...1.0

2009...-1.6....12.4

2006...+6.1....0.0

2004...+0.9....3.0

2002....-1.5....11.0

1997....+0.7....T

1994.....+4.7....T

1991.....+2.1....0.7

Question...how frequent are El ninos? Seems like we just had one not too long ago. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We seem to get 3-4 winters each decade with an El Niño.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Lately we’ve been struggling to get them though.  Obviously 15-16 happened but the previous two winters the ENSO models were locked onto an El Niño in spring and summer and it didn’t really come close to happening either time 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

It’s bad but only have to go back three years for worse imo.  

The rain has really added to the misery. The missed opportunity that slammed the SE also hurt. 

In 2015 we knew December would be atrocious. I'll take a massive torch with less rain than one with some opportunities that was excessively wet, not white.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...