CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, Hoth said: "Don't look at it! Keep your eyes shut!" Ghosts of the Mashantucket tribe circling him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: , It looks like the gfs got hung up at hr 120? Is this today’s 18z run? It is hung up but it does show 240 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Quite the wintry 18z GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120518&fh=240 Without the earlier hours, it's hard to tell how this evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018120518&fh=240 Thanks. Yeah, you’re not kidding. Wow. We pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Wow that was a nice GFS run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Epic Scooter shit streak gonna keep this next storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Epic Scooter shit streak gonna keep this next storm south. It started out as a cutter, so that would be very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Unless we see a reorientation of the upper air pattern over the northeast, this storm is DOA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow that was a nice GFS run! I must state that the new GFS is not nearly as nice. However it is better that. 12 z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow that was a nice GFS run! That is an understatement ... 18 hours at storm maturation quintessentially timed for maximization of impact by positioning when it cuts off crawls a departure... Storm force pulverizing winds bearing some 3 to 5" of liq equiv QPF with temperatures falling through the mid 20s would probably be the biggest storm (including these recent 20"ers ...) to impact in well over 20 years. D9 on any 18z GFS run isn't exactly inspiring much more than interesting curiosity ... no. But the GEFs derivatives have a PNA spike in that time range ...even though every other index plausibly teleconnected to our area of the hemisphere is July looking ... it is what it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That is an understatement ... 18 hours at storm maturation quintessentially timed for maximization of impact by positioning when it cuts off crawls a departure... Storm force pulverizing winds bearing some 3 to 5" of liq equiv QPF with temperatures falling through the mid 20s would probably be the biggest storm (including these recent 20"ers ...) to impact in well over 20 years. D9 on any 18z GFS run isn't exactly inspiring much more than interesting curiosity ... no. But the GEFs derivatives have a PNA spike in that time range ...even though every other index plausibly teleconnected to our area of the hemisphere is July looking ... it is what it is... You know what they say...the biggest ones shine a bit brighter out in the distance...lol... j/k, but that would be a real nice treat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That is an understatement ... 18 hours at storm maturation quintessentially timed for maximization of impact by positioning when it cuts off crawls a departure... Storm force pulverizing winds bearing some 3 to 5" of liq equiv QPF with temperatures falling through the mid 20s would probably be the biggest storm (including these recent 20"ers ...) to impact in well over 20 years. D9 on any 18z GFS run isn't exactly inspiring much more than interesting curiosity ... no. But the GEFs derivatives have a PNA spike in that time range ...even though every other index plausibly teleconnected to our area of the hemisphere is July looking ... it is what it is... No more so than the curiosity on this latest hope we have all been following for several days now since D9, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Unless we see a reorientation of the upper air pattern over the northeast, this storm is DOA. That will not work with that flow, To the NW of Maine with that s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Unless we see a reorientation of the upper air pattern over the northeast, this storm is DOA. I think this system has been flatlined for a little while now. A few weenies are still standing around the corpse waiting for it to jump up. Don’t think this storm will pull a Lazarus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Hazey said: I think this system has been flatlined for a little while now. A few weenies are still standing around the corpse waiting for it to jump up. Don’t think this storm will pull a Lazarus. Meh. Plenty of pros saying this aint dead. There was a day once some time ago where looking at op runs outside of d5 was laughed at....now we cancel storms outside d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like the GFS got those half price martinis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meh. Plenty of pros saying this aint dead. There was a day once some time ago where looking at op runs outside of d5 was laughed at....now we cancel storms outside d5. Very good point Berg...my how things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meh. Plenty of pros saying this aint dead. There was a day once some time ago where looking at op runs outside of d5 was laughed at....now we cancel storms outside d5. Yeah I'm amazed at the amount of certainty being thrown around with this. There's no doubt it is an uphill climb but we've seen much much worse setups than this closer to the event turn for the better on the models and give us a storm. I still think the key to this storm coming north is getting the southern stream further north initially rather than hoping the confluence will weaken to the point of very little resistance....the AFD that metfan (snow88) posted actually talks about it. We will want to see some earlier phasing and that will really drive the downstream ridging and help push the entire height field north. The reason we still have hope is because some of the models are actually showing the phasing and the northern stream shortwave that phases in looks pretty strong. It isn't even onshore until tomorrow night as I mentioned in an earlier post. So there's definitely room for big changes. I wouldn't be forecasting snow for us or anything, but I am not dismissing this as an automatic miss with this much lead time given what is still out there upstream. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Leo’s honking like he never has... Febs looking pretty sweet too with AN precip. We patient grasshoppers aint we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meh. Plenty of pros saying this aint dead. There was a day once some time ago where looking at op runs outside of d5 was laughed at....now we cancel storms outside d5. By day 4 its obvious what will transpire by day 6. Also ENS are in step.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FWIW 18Z NAVGEM took a huge jump north.. still not enough though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 But this is 5 days out, not 2?? I don’t understand your post Ginx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: By day 4 its obvious what will transpire by day 6. Also ENS are in step.9 I guess it’s only obvious to you and DT. All the other pros and vets I’ve heard and seen don’t think it’s that obvious. I will call you my daddy rest of winter is nothing changes from euro/eps from get go like 4 days ago or whatever the number is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But this is 5 days out, not 2?? I don’t understand your post Ginx? The upper air features that are in place day 4 determine what will transpire what will happen day 6. So unless we see a huge shift north pretty soon its going to take a big across the board model failure. I find it hard to bet that the EPS Euro have day 4 features especially the strong confluence features 200 miles off. It can and has happened before but I tend to be extremely skeptical of outlier solutions when the Euro and EPS lock in like they have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If this was the Euro from before the upgrade...I’d definitely give it much more consideration than now. That model is NOT the same model it was. And when it does “lock in” which is more rarely now...it’s wrong many times...so that doesn’t carry the weight it used to imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I guess it’s only obvious to you and DT. All the other pros and vets I’ve heard and seen don’t think it’s that obvious. I will call you my daddy rest of winter is nothing changes from euro/eps from get go like 4 days ago or whatever the number is. I already have 8 kids, don't need another one. You are free to believe whatever your sweet little heart desires. I have read many Mets who have moved on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I guess it’s only obvious to you and DT. All the other pros and vets I’ve heard and seen don’t think it’s that obvious. I will call you my daddy rest of winter is nothing changes from euro/eps from get go like 4 days ago or whatever the number is. #takeastandwiththestormtrack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: If this was the Euro from before the upgrade...I’d definitely give it much more consideration than now. That model is NOT the same model it was. And when it does “lock in” which is more rarely now...it’s wrong many times...so that doesn’t carry the weight it used to imo. Did you sleep through last winters majors, rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 While I don’t think this threat is dead, it ain’t exactly competing in a triathlon I will give it until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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