ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: While I don’t think this threat is dead, it ain’t exactly competing in a triathlon I will give it until Friday. I think Friday is fair...that's when most of the players will be sufficiently sampled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well just to bring up a couple of monster comebacks that were every bit as messed up as this...Boxing Day 2010-that was written off for gonzo days ahead. And Jan 15 was out to sea until the Euro run of 0z Early Saturday morning, and that storm was coming just a tad over two days later. So there have been comebacks that have been very surprising. Time will tell...at least it’s something to keep an eye on for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Did you sleep through last winters majors, rain or snow? Everybody has their own opinions...it’s not the guru it once was imo. It’s dropped back a few notches since the upgrade. It Maybe the best model still ...but it’s not it’s old self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Everybody has their own opinions...it’s not the guru it once was imo. It’s dropped back a few notches since the upgrade. It Maybe the best model still ...but it’s not it’s old self. The euro even in its heyday was never locked in until inside of 4 days anyway. The magic number was always around 84 hours. I remember the 12/19/08 event on the euro was a torching cutter at 120-144...and amazingly, nobody really freaked out about it because we didn't freak out about Day 6 solutions. Modeling has improved since then but not that much. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well just to bring up a couple of monster comebacks that were every bit as messed up as this...Boxing Day 2010-that was written off for gonzo days ahead. And Jan 15 was out to sea until the Euro run of 0z Early Saturday morning, and that storm was coming just a tad over two days later. So there have been comebacks that have been very surprising. Time will tell...at least it’s something to keep an eye on for a little while. Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history No it was actually the 12z GFS on Christmas Eve which was discounted as filled with errors. The 18z NAM a few hours later was the first model to jump on board and show that the 12z GFS might not be erroneous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The euro even in its heyday was never locked in until inside of 4 days anyway. The magic number was always around 84 hours. I remember the 12/19/08 event on the euro was a torching cutter at 120-144...and amazingly, nobody really freaked out about it because we didn't freak out about Day 6 solutions. Modeling has improved since then but not that much. Oh I agree. But I’m glad to see that you used the phrase “in its Hay Day,” cuz it’s hay day imo has passed. They tweaked something and it’s not the same model since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: No it was actually the 12z GFS on Christmas Eve which was discounted as filled with errors. The 18z NAM a few hours later was the first model to jump on board and show that the 12z GFS might not be erroneous. Wasn’t the 00z euro out late that night too? Maybe my memory is hazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history I was on the other board then..and a supposed mastermind over there was chastising everybody who thought that the storm had a chance after a couple models showed it coming up. He was honking about the upper air pattern not supporting the storm turning the corner...lol he ended up eating some huge crow... 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: No it was actually the 12z GFS on Christmas Eve which was discounted as filled with errors. The 18z NAM a few hours later was the first model to jump on board and show that the 12z GFS might not be erroneous. Yes remember that too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Its things like this with a wave break that I like to look at to figure out how far north this can come. I mean I can picture maybe just south of Dc getting Rays 4 to 8 band. IDK much smarter men then me posted they will wait until Fri. Hope I am dead wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The euro even in its heyday was never locked in until inside of 4 days anyway. The magic number was always around 84 hours. I remember the 12/19/08 event on the euro was a torching cutter at 120-144...and amazingly, nobody really freaked out about it because we didn't freak out about Day 6 solutions. Modeling has improved since then but not that much. I think even 12/31/08 was mild at first like 6 days out, and then ticked south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wasn’t the 00z euro out late that night too? Maybe my memory is hazy. NCP actually pulled the GFS because of Initialization errors and apologized. Woops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think even 12/31/08 was mild at first like 6 days out, and then ticked south. You sure that wasn’t 12/31/07?? I remember it snowing on NYE 2007..but not 08...but maybe I’m wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think even 12/31/08 was mild at first like 6 days out, and then ticked south. 11 years ago this month was one of my all time favorites. The 3 day snow, 17 inches worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You sure that wasn’t 12/31/07?? I remember it snowing on NYE 2007..but not 08...but maybe I’m wrong? 12/31/08 prett much whiffed south of the Merritt. Your a little north I think butntou may have only gotten a dusting so it wasn't memorable. It was a potent redeveloping clipper for the pike region into S NH and also crushed SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 11 years ago this month was one of my all time favorites. The 3 day snow, 17 inches worth It was a CJ-fest in the middle here. Never got an ob from Weymouth, but pretty sure we beat the 14 or 15” in Whitman from the first two days. The last storm was when Ray played naked twister. That winter was sneaky real good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wasn’t the 00z euro out late that night too? Maybe my memory is hazy. Took a road trip to North Hampton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Boxing Day 2010. Began with the nam at 18z .every 3 letter organization tossed it and cited initialization errors. A few Mets chimed in that said errors appeared negligible and rest was history That's a golden memory...Excitement was swiftly undercut, however, when it turned into six inches of shredded baking powder here. Great wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh I agree. But I’m glad to see that you used the phrase “in its Hay Day,” cuz it’s hay day imo has passed. They tweaked something and it’s not the same model since. In my heyday, "hay days" were for the horses. (Sorry, being that guy.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/31/08 prett much whiffed south of the Merritt. Your a little north I think butntou may have only gotten a dusting so it wasn't memorable. It was a potent redeveloping clipper for the pike region into S NH and also crushed SE MA. Oh ok that makes sense. Yes, about 15 miles Northwest of the northern most extent/start of the Merrit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z gefs mean was lighter with the confluence up top but it doesn’t look like all the members were run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NCEP having issues? NAM already half hour late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 18z gefs mean was lighter with the confluence up top but it doesn’t look like all the members were run: NCEP issues I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Give me data or give me death. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Geezus look at that CAD, serious ice for someone on the southern extent of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Dec 2010 model issues...part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 We snow tomorrow night, festival flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We snow tomorrow night, festival flakes Yup. Flying under the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yup. Flying under the radar... Because none of those flakes will be flying under plows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Because none of those flakes will be flying under plows. Enough to get in the spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now