NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s coming north, you can see this has Jan16 written all over it. It may not be enough for us but congrats DT never materializes. Congrats NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 This reminds me of January 23rd 2016. Id love someone to pull out the euro and GFS runs from 6-7 days before the storm hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sensible weather wise -- no changes from my initial post on Nov. 23 which postulated the retraction/reset period in Dec 10th-16th, and thereupon, rearrangement of features with a rapidly improving hemispheric regime shortly after the mid month point +/- three days. I maintain that notion. The week period of December 12th-18th will likely feature warmer than normal temperatures; however, heights should neutralize in the East by the 17th-18th already, with normalizing temperatures. The retrogression of the GOAK trough will be occurring concomitantly in the December 14th-18th period, and as we approach the 20th, all disparate domains will be increasing in favorability (e.g., PNA, NAM, NAO), such that the final third of December is interesting winter weather wise. The 9th period remains a distinct threat as well, as originally noted on the 23rd to monitor the 7th-11th period. As an aside, a displacement event favors North America (compared to Europe) for "winter" weather, and even if the SPV is displaced away from the continent, that does not implicate "all the cold air" will be taken with it. Quite the contrary, actually, as the geopotential height structure would be conducive for tropospheric, high-latitude blocking. Did Tippy write the for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You think he wrote all that? I have to do a better job at showing my sarcasm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 He asked for Isotherms thoughts, so I copied and pasted from his winter thread on main page. Follow along weens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He asked for Isotherms thoughts, so I copied and pasted from his winter thread on main page. Follow along weens Yes we know, captain obvious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Kinda like women? Well, In that instance, it can be more then just a peek, May have to do a full analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Should be able to do another round of leaf cleanup when the last of the snow melts. November>December (at least for a little while) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Well all of the ensembles are much better for the final third of December vs middle third. Looks cold enough and potentially wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 What will suck, is if we whiff on two events that could have produced(Wed and the upcoming one that right now looks to whiff at the moment). Yes Jan 16 was a whiff like this right along too, and then it gave a pretty decent event to CT and RI and SE Mass..ofcourse not the Blockbuster it was in NYC and south, but significant for sure. Be nice if this one late Wknd/early next week can muster a lil something for SNE?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What will suck, is if we whiff on two events that could have produced(Wed and the upcoming one that right now looks to whiff at the moment). Yes Jan 16 was a whiff like this right along too, and then it gave a pretty decent event to CT and RI and SE Mass..ofcourse not the Blockbuster it was in NYC and south, but significant for sure. Be nice if this one late Wknd/early next week can muster a lil something for SNE?? One huge difference. December you’re playing with house $$. Odds still are much lower vs January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Congrats Boone NC with a 2 day blizzard of epic proportions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 What a way to run a warm up looks like a few days. Looks like the cold comes back before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: One huge difference. December you’re playing with house $$. Odds still are much lower vs January Very true Jerry. But it would still be nice...even though we're playing with house money to muster something..even a consolation prize would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, leo2000 said: What a way to run a warm up looks like a few days. Looks like the cold comes back before Christmas. Color me shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Those colors don’t exactly exude confidence on deep cold but the raw values are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, leo2000 said: What a way to run a warm up looks like a few days. Looks like the cold comes back before Christmas. Looks warm for you Uncle Leo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Color me shocked Canada being flooded with warm air isn’t a great or cold look for us here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Mid December climo is not exactly snowy. So, I’m not sure having warm anomalies is something to cheer for. Lots of Pacific air needs to be removed first. I still think 12/25 and especially after is where we can finally flush the garbage out and get something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mid December climo is not exactly snowy. So, I’m not sure having warm anomalies is something to cheer for. Lots of Pacific air needs to be removed first. I still think 12/25 and especially after is where we can finally flush the garbage out and get something better. Scott, others, don't want to get off topic, Jan-Feb 2015, we were getting slammed etc, was that an El Nino year? I just can't remember how December 2014 started off etc. Thanks ahead of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 512high said: Scott, others, don't want to get off topic, Jan-Feb 2015, we were getting slammed etc, was that an El Nino year? I just can't remember how December 2014 started off etc. Thanks ahead of time December was ridiculously warm with little or no snow. January started getting cold mid month and the rest is history. Weak nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 512high said: Scott, others, don't want to get off topic, Jan-Feb 2015, we were getting slammed etc, was that an El Nino year? I just can't remember how December 2014 started off etc. Thanks ahead of time Verbatim is was warm neutral, but behaved like an El Niño for a time. I don’t get too caught where and what the anomalies are, I want to see how the atmosphere is responding. Looks like we are getting a typical December response before some forcing causes the low near AK to retrograde to a more favorable position later this month, and maybe some blocking as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Canada being flooded with warm air isn’t a great or cold look for us here You are right. Those bright reds up there must be what, 70-85 degrees up there?? We are doomed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks warm for you Uncle Leo. Yes I know that but the blue anomalies are coming up from the south. We don't need it super cold anyways for snow just normal temperatures are good enough before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s coming north, you can see this has Jan16 written all over it. It may not be enough for us but congrats DT never materializes. Yup--those people in Raleigh can relax. I'm not tossing December or the winter.....but tracking this? I"m done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Yup--those people in Raleigh can relax. I'm not tossing December or the winter.....but tracking this? I"m done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Interior can do well with slightly above average temps...just look at December 2002 after the 10th...so the stuff near the end of the euro run isn't terrible. Definitely tougher for the coast. We'll see how it looks though as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Watch the mesos suck us back in for this threat once they get in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Perhaps James can hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Perhaps James can hold out hope. You mean like the one on the 5th? That i said that would whiff and was told history didn't agree with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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