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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential


Malacka11

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5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah it's definitely gonna rank high on my all-time favorite list. Still a ways to go but it's been very impressive so far. Seeing the best rates of the day right now. Surprisingly large flakes given the strong winds. Snow is still really dense/wet. 

Yeah its really ripping hard here too, probably some of the hardest of the day along with strong winds. Can't really see across the street lol. Heck of a storm for late November. I'll take one or three of these every year haha.

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1 minute ago, Jim Martin said:

Ds49yG5X4AAcjrm.png

  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0654 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2018  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN  
IA/SOUTHERN WI  
  
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD   
  
VALID 260054Z - 260700Z  
  
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NORTHERN  
IL THIS EVENING. AS STRONGER WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  
  
DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 993 MB SURFACE CYCLONE  
JUST NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW,  
HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHWEST IL, WITH  
STRONGER WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE PRODUCING  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. DUAL POL PRODUCTS FROM KILX/KLOT AND RECENT  
SURFACE OBS AND MPING REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS  
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE AS BACKING SURFACE WINDS RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
COLD ADVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
MOVING SURFACE LOW. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING INTO MOST OF THE  
CHICAGOLAND AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z, THOUGH AREAS IN THE IMMEDIATE  
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF MIXED  
PRECIPITATION AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE MAINTAIN A  
SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.   
  
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW MOVING  
INTO SOUTHERN IL, WITH A CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO THE PRECIP (AND  
SOME THUNDERSNOW REPORTS) ALSO NOTED WITHIN COOLING CLOUD TOPS  
ACROSS NORTHERN IL. STRONG LOW/MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE  
TO FAVOR MODERATE-TO-HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW,  
WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE MIDLEVEL  
DRY SLOT, WHERE RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES (IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AS  
NOTED ON ILX/DVN 00Z SOUNDINGS) WILL BE MAINTAINED. SNOW RATES OF  
1-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND, WHICH  
SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST IL BY LATE TONIGHT.   
  
STRONG WINDS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT) ARE RESULTING IN ONGOING  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHWEST IL. THESE  
STRONGER WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO NORTHEAST IL AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST WI  
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.  
  
..DEAN.. 11/26/2018  

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Updated blizzard warning from the NWS I missed...and lo and behold. Remember how I called 6-10 inches? They get it now.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
530 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

...Major Winter Storm Today and Tonight with Blizzard Conditions
in Portions of the Area...

ILZ034-035-260730-
/O.CON.KDVN.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-181126T1200Z/
Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Carthage and Macomb
530 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 4
  to 7 inches. Storm total 6 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high
  as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Hancock and McDonough Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult and
  dangerous. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle.

Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/quadcities
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That is such a shweet radar presentation, that I wish this thing could grow, stay all snow and stall for a few days over your region.

I can't even begin to imagine, what torrential wet dendrites look like when they are blasted past brilliant streetlights by winds gusting to 45 mph.

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4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I think 9 inches is a reasonable total to hope for in Aurora. Exceeding that three-inch mark is proving easy :)

Aurora's daily snowfall records are: 11/25: 3.4", 2004; 11/26: 3.0", 1940. At least one of them should fall.

The biggest November snowfall is probably out of reach. On 11/5/1896 12.0" snow was measured.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Aurora's daily snowfall records are: 11/25: 3.4", 2004; 11/26: 3.0", 1940. At least one of them should fall.

The biggest November snowfall is probably out of reach. On 11/5/1896 12.0" snow was measured.

Thanks for that ^

Ah well, can't hurt to aim big at this point :)

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689
SXUS73 KLOT 260045
RERRFD

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
0645 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2018

...RECORD DAILY AND NOVEMBER CALENDAR DAY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT
ROCKFORD IL...

A DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL OF 7.0 INCHES WAS SET AT ROCKFORD IL
TODAY...NOVEMBER 25TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.3 INCHES FOR
NOVEMBER 25TH SET IN 1977.

THIS ALSO BREAKS THE CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR NOVEMBER. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 6.6 INCHES SET ON NOVEMBER 27TH 1996.

$$
 

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2 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

dvnchat    2018/11/25 8:23 PM    iembot    
Roseville [Warren Co, IL] TRAINED SPOTTER reports BLIZZARD at 25 Nov, 7:05 PM CST -- SEVERAL HIGHWAYS CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY. THUNDERSNOW AT TIME OF REPORT.

I believe it. We don't have any thundersnow down here, and we're a county below Roseville, but there's got to be 3-4 inches down out there. Erring towards 3.

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