Malacka11 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The GEFS sums up the change in the GFS's depiction of the event nicely. Farther south, but slightly weaker. 00Z: 18Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just beat me to it. Pretty legit storm by November standards. Not only snow but wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Gut tells me it’ll shift a *little* SE and slightly weaker than currently projected just based off trends/how these sort of events seem to usually evolve. Probably won’t see much here but wouldn’t be surprised if areas on the border right now (Dekalb-Mendota areas NW) see a good amount from this, especially if that feature Hoosier talked about continues to be more prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Looks like we might get a few good inches out of that if the trend holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Could love me some thump transition snow if things go favorably. GRR's afternoon AFD seemed encouraging. They like the follow-on LES as the ULL does it's same loop-de-loop over the E Lakes. Seems to be a theme so far this early cold season. IF we can ever get one of these when it's cold enough for snow front and back sides, it could be quite the event for parts of SWMI. But, back to this system and it's wet front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 The last 3 runs of the GEM have varied just a bit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 GFS has been relatively consistent the last 3 runs. But a far cry from other models. The system is not adequately sampled yet so major changes are still possible. Someone is going to get dumped on and get some near blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Also, Sunday is a huge travel day with lots of people traveling back to college/home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said: The last 3 runs of the GEM have varied just a bit.. I'll take the latest version thank you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Hawkeye special on the 00z Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Hawkeye special on the 00z Euro. 12" or bust! Pretty impressive looking system. 50-55kt cold conveyor at 850mb on the Euro. Very strong winds are definitely going to cause problems wherever that heavy snow falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 00z GFS and 00z Canadian model are in pretty good agreement of a storm track. 00z Euro has wind gusts approaching 50 mph on the backside of this low, which given the extremely packed isobars on the GFS, I'm inclined to believe that will happen and then some....Someone is going to see the "b" word out of this if we see that scenario. I haven't seen a snow map for the 00z Euro yet, but I'm guessing its similar to the other models if Hawkeye is looking at a foot of snow.....going to be a fun next few days. I'll be in the QCA area until Tuesday morning, so this will be fun. Either I'll kill it or it will be an awesome time lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Whoa! Needless to say Sunday travel in the region is looking pretty rough at the moment. Yikes! 6"-12" snow totals along with sustained winds of at least 20-25mph and gusts 35-40mph, is going to create big problems. Also, this year the cold has already been something else, but the New Euro is indicating a pretty wide swath of sub zero lows by Tuesday morning. Talk about looking and feeling like Winter around here. Of course, I have to remind myself Winter officially arrives in about 3 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Still thinking we see a NW trend, given overall strength of the system and time of year. Though the system Friday into Saturday and the ensuing CAA may prevent that from occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Extremely impressive moisture plume modeled on the 00z Euro with cold sector pwats generally AOA 0.6" and near/above 1" pwats feeding into the trowal and cold conveyor. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, ILwxchr said: 00z GFS and 00z Canadian model are in pretty good agreement of a storm track. 00z Euro has wind gusts approaching 50 mph on the backside of this low, which given the extremely packed isobars on the GFS, I'm inclined to believe that will happen and then some....Someone is going to see the "b" word out of this if we see that scenario. I haven't seen a snow map for the 00z Euro yet, but I'm guessing its similar to the other models if Hawkeye is looking at a foot of snow.....going to be a fun next few days. I'll be in the QCA area until Tuesday morning, so this will be fun. Either I'll kill it or it will be an awesome time lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 minute ago, ams30721us said: Euro going nuclear on Eastern Iowa. Hawkeye looks like ground zero there lol. I'll be north of Davenport near Eldridge so I'm hoping this can lock in lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Also for the QCA, looks like the new Euro joins the GFS/CMC in a faster flip to snow. Looks like anytime from lunch onward now, as opposed to waiting through Sunday night. In fact, temps look to only warm into the mid 30s or so now at best before the northerly winds kick in, and begin to cool the column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 12" or bust! Pretty impressive looking system. 50-55kt cold conveyor at 850mb on the Euro. Very strong winds are definitely going to cause problems wherever that heavy snow falls. Yep. Even in areas east of the heavy snow totals, there could be a period of fairly intense conditions as that wind swath translates east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Will be interesting to watch this over the next few days, gonna be nerve-wracking for some on the edge of the heavy totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yep. Even in areas east of the heavy snow totals, there could be a period of fairly intense conditions as that wind swath translates east. True, and just looking at modeled temps, they are going to be in that 30-32 range, so the heavy, wet snow once again, looks to be the primary texture for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 32 minutes ago, hlcater said: Still thinking we see a NW trend, given overall strength of the system and time of year. Though the system Friday into Saturday and the ensuing CAA may prevent that from occurring. This has been such a bizarre fall I'm throwing climo in the trash. No outcome will surprise me lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 For comparison, today’s 12z EURO run vs 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Most 12z runs thus far have bumped SE/are weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 ICON model really looks impressive for the DVN cwa. Really not sure how accurate that model is since I usually don't follow it. It would imply blizzard, or near blizzard conditions for Sunday afternoon/evening for this area. GEM looks pretty similar, but it's not quite as deep of a system and also a bit quicker. Still a long ways to go, so trying not to get too excited just yet lol. EDIT: The difference between the GFS and the FV3-GVS are pretty lol worthy. The FV3 amps up the system much quicker, and results in a much further northwest placement in the heavy snow axis. That's a scenario we'll have to watch out for in this area. If the system amps up too quickly this area would only get some tail-end lighter snows and gusty winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Definitely a notable se trend. Gfs is obviously on the extreme end of guidance for it's southern track. But curious to see if other models keep nudging se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Definitely a notable se trend. Gfs is obviously on the extreme end of guidance for it's southern track. But curious to see if other models keep nudging se The Detroit Snow Magnet has begun. SE MI for the Win! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 22, 2018 Author Share Posted November 22, 2018 Me like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: EDIT: The difference between the GFS and the FV3-GVS are pretty lol worthy. The FV3 amps up the system much quicker, and results in a much further northwest placement in the heavy snow axis. That's a scenario we'll have to watch out for in this area. If the system amps up too quickly this area would only get some tail-end lighter snows and gusty winds. You ain't kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 This storm is going to be interesting. If some of these models are right I could be getting a foot! On thanksgiving weekend! That doesn't happen very often. Hopefully it staves off ust lng enough for the majority of travel to be done on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now