Ji Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the ensembles on TT and they have some promise for the Dec 8-10 time frame. WEatherbell is starting to throw out panels now so should get a better idea when post day 10 comes up. I like the Dec 7-10 window before we go back into full panic mode 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: I dunno. Day 10 on the Euro looks like a fat Lakes Cutter. Hopefully the Ensembles are vastly different. That’s how it looks to me. I’m just looking for the existence of a storm then. Also the euro can sometimes blow those up into cutters but reality ends up different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: I dunno. Day 10 on the Euro looks like a fat Lakes Cutter. Hopefully the Ensembles are vastly different. Yeah, the op run is pretty much crap. Ensembles show more promise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, the op run is pretty much crap. Ensembles show more promise. the OP Euro at day 10 almost always verifies...so I am worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: I like the Dec 7-10 window before we go back into full panic mode Can't figure out the panic to be honest with you. We are still in November, 2-3 weeks before I consider legitimate winter and many already have snow under their belt with some substantially so. Granted the PAC goes to hell but I feel that will be shortly lived and there are already signs showing up on the models that will be the case. We will probably be back to a favorable PAC before/by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: the OP Euro at day 10 almost always verifies...so I am worried Only when it shows rain and a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Stronger signal on the EPS for a low running up from the gulf along the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Can't figure out the panic to be honest with you. We are still in November, 2-3 weeks before I consider legitimate winter and many already have snow under their belt with some substantially so. Granted the PAC goes to hell but I feel that will be shortly lived and there are already signs showing up on the models that will be the case. We will probably be back to a favorable PAC before Christmas. The biggest problem I’ve seen so far.....way too many weenies came out of hibernation way too soon! Now everyone is all Polar Vortex perturbed and whatnot. We need to relax. Maybe if we all got together for a Friendsgiving...in two weeks...at Chills house? I know I’d feel better... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Like the GEFS, EPS is warming up to the idea of something d10-13. Far from a strong signal but a step in the right direction. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Stronger signal on the EPS for a low running up from the gulf along the coast. Is this for the Dec 7-10 time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Is this for the Dec 7-10 time period? Yeah Showing up on this run the 8th and 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 It's a good thing that TT doesn't have EPS d11-15. It's quite hideous. I'd prefer to be staring at a SE ridge honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 The Polar Vortex is in Canada at Day 10 Euro. I'd also bet that one to be a snowstorm in verification. Judging by the progression(?)incline of snow/ice, it's that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a good thing that TT doesn't have EPS d11-15. It's quite hideous. I'd prefer to be staring at a SE ridge honestly. Worse than GEFS in that range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Worse than GEFS in that range? Baked in the cake. Not worried. We never go wall to wall winter so just a couple of bad cards to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Worse than GEFS in that range? Yea, it's really bad. Basically a complete evacuation of cold air across the continent... especially western Canada. A pac onslaught of epic proportions. If it were to happen like that it would take a lot of work before winter returns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Like I said earlier today. It can only get better from the current LR look. EPS isn't an ambiguous or washed out mean... it's crappy with a clear message for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's really bad. Basically a complete evacuation of cold air across the continent... especially western Canada. A pac onslaught of epic proportions. If it were to happen like that it would take a lot of work before winter returns. It certainly aint pretty. OTOH, before we potentially get to that mess, here we go with 18z GFS @ hr 264..has a suppressed event, after the 12z run had a similar look for that time frame(Dec 9th). Right where we want it. Snow in southern NC? lol. This is probs the best window of opportunity before everything potentially goes to shiit for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Like I said earlier today. It can only get better from the current LR look. EPS isn't an ambiguous or washed out mean... it's crappy with a clear message for now. The Pig +EPO has been stucked in this timeframe for several days now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's really bad. Basically a complete evacuation of cold air across the continent... especially western Canada. A pac onslaught of epic proportions. If it were to happen like that it would take a lot of work before winter returns. How much work? Like a month? (And wouldn't that be like...a record or something if that were to verify? And how often do we see this in a Niño?) That ain't bad enough to ruin the winter, is it? Lol (and why in the world is the PAC modeled to be so hostile?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It certainly aint pretty. OTOH, before we potentially get to that mess, here we go with 18z GFS @ hr 264..has a suppressed event, after the 12z run had a similar look for that time frame(Dec 9th). Right where we want it. Snow in southern NC? lol. This is probs the best window of opportunity before everything potentially goes to shiit for awhile. Which is gonna make it a little nerve-wracking to track knowing that if we miss there's no telling when the next opportunity will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How much work? Like a month? (And wouldn't that be like...a record or something if that were to verify? And how often do we see this in a Niño?) That ain't bad enough to ruin the winter, is it? Lol I'm still not sold its going to happen in the first place so I won't put the cart before the horse and even begin to guess how long a strong +EPO that hasn't formed yet will last. Hypothetically it could last a week or a month or most of winter. Until it becomes a fixture in real time I'm assuming (like everyone else) that it's either not going happen as shown or be pretty short lived. Our area doesn't typically get going for winter wx until after Christmas in the vast majority of years so I won't get concerned about a dud until mid Jan at the earliest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, it's really bad. Basically a complete evacuation of cold air across the continent... especially western Canada. A pac onslaught of epic proportions. If it were to happen like that it would take a lot of work before winter returns. Throwing a lit match into the simmering powder keg of panic. Guess we found our new Reaper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 I hope it doesn’t play out like this. It’s not fun to burn through December. Not very 2009-ish. But it’s still November so panic is at a low level. Next runs can erase this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I hope it doesn’t play out like this. It’s not fun to burn through December. Not very 2009-ish. But it’s still November so panic is at a low level. Next runs can erase this. We completely "waste" Dec most of the time. Its the normal here. 2009 was epic and very uncommon. Its not going to happen this year. Not even close. I would gladly take a 3-5" event for Dec and be totally happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We completely "waste" Dec most of the time. Its the normal here. 2009 was epic and very uncommon. Its not going to happen this year. Not even close. I would gladly take a 3-5" event for Dec and be totally happy. Perhaps. Of course we don’t know that. It can turn on a dime and we could luck into a decent event. We’ll know on 31 Dec how it played out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 GEFS very bullish for a storm running the coast Dec 7-9. Hopefully we can score something during this time frame. We may be waiting for a while after that. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Two weeks ago, if that, the long range guidance looked spectacular and both the GEFS and EPS were in lockstep. Now, the long range guidance looks pretty bad. I really don't know how anyone can trust the long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 26 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GEFS very bullish for a storm running the coast Dec 7-9. Hopefully we can score something during this time frame. We may be waiting for a while after that. Lol Yea, was just going to post that 18z ens members upped the ante again. It's a tricky setup with high pressure to the west instead of north but it's a reinforcing shot so the antecedent airmass will prob be decent. If we can score even an advisory level event before things potentially make a turn for the worse it will make it a lot easier to deal with a crappy pattern. I like seeing the gefs and eps slowly warming up to the idea as the days go by. We'll prob get a nice op run in the next day or 2.... or 0z tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Most of you already know this, but December was always a wild card and most December Ninos suck. My money has always been on February this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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